Posted on 07/05/2022 5:00:49 PM PDT by Mount Athos
On Monday, the country recorded that imports outstripped exports for more than 30 years. Its entire economy has been built around creating an industrial machine that dominates global markets. That machine is now grinding to a halt.
Exports unexpectedly fell, while imports surged as the cost of energy spiked. Until recently it was racking up surpluses of 8 or 9 per cent of GDP, or €20 billion a month, the biggest in the world.
The German economy is based on selling high-end industrial goods to the rest of the world. Unlike many other countries, it doesn’t have huge service industries to take up the slack if that goes into decline, nor does it have a major financial centre to bring in invisible earnings if the container ships start to go elsewhere. Take the big exporters out of the German economy and it is a little hard to figure out what is left.
What follows a fall in exports is a fall in those well-paid manufacturing jobs that are the backbone of the German economy.
Finally, it is going to mean a massive eurozone deficit as well. Of all the countries within the zone, Germany was the only major surplus country. The result? The currency will weaken and weaken.
In truth, the German industrial export machine was fuelled by cheap energy from Russia – and that fuel could soon run dry. For most of the post-war era, Germany has prided itself on very low inflation, a stable currency, and a huge trade surplus. Right now, it has a very Italian or Greek mix of 8 per cent inflation, a crumbling currency, and a rising trade deficit. Many other countries are used to that, but for Germans it will come as a shock.
(Excerpt) Read more at spectator.co.uk ...
It should read:
“Imports outstripped exports for the first time in more than 30 years”
Who writes this stuff?
Thanks I read this 3 times and could not figure it out.
Invading Russia and provoking WW3 is the endgame - what the Davros crowd wants. Erases all that nasty paper debt and then - New World Order!. Doesn’t do much for the billions who will die of starvation after the war, though.
ZIMBABWE re-do.
Before the dustup in Ukraine, Germany had some of most expensive electricity in Europe and perhaps the world. Average residential rates were in the 30 cents per kWh range. This was due in large part to the costs to build out their unreliables and the fact that they subsidized industrial electricity rates so that they could remain competitive with other parts of the world.
Angela Merkel actions were nothing less than criminal and she should be held to account for this travesty.
The correct translation obviously should be “for the first time in more than 30 years.”
This highlights why the export/import reversal is significant.
Great Britain with its Empire and Commonwealth, United States variously in its history, Japan, China and, certainly, Germany have all prospered as they have engaged in mercantilism.
Germany will prosper again as it has miraculously prospered in the past because it is an economy grounded in the idea of producing value added and selling it to less advanced economies. China is the recent champion in this game but America is becoming the less advanced economy that will soon run out of resources even to play the subservient role of consumer.
“.... but America is becoming the less advanced economy that will soon run out of resources even to play the subservient role of consumer”.
That is powerful, scary and true.
Well done...you've captured the smug arrogance mixed with a total lack of self awareness that Europeans have toward the United States perfectly.
If Beer production stops no Politician is safe
Coincidentally however, today I had an argument with a German who started his rant against America by castigating Trump and sneering at American gun law. You are quite right, he is ill-informed and he is somewhat smug but in truth he has much to be smug about.
Since 1945 we Americans have subsidized Germany's wonderful lifestyle which I am happy to partake of myself. Why should Germany defend itself when it can provide me and others here with wonderful healthcare at minimal cost with the dollars it does not need to spend on defense?
The Germans have played us beautifully but it is idle to blame them for it. We would do exactly the same if we could.
The Greens are dangerous very dangerous
Yet somehow they can produce weapons for the war over Ukraine, the cause of their industrial downturn.
I dont know if Germany could scrape together a single division.
A couple of tweaks:
“They had to fire up a great deal of dirty coal plants to replace that energy at first.”
Most likely, “have” is a better term, as it takes months to put a mothballed coal plant into operation, perhaps many months.
“This cut their natural gas supply by more than 1/3rd.”
Initially the cut in Nordstream 1 was 40%, now it is 60%. All Germany and Canada has to do is return the turbines to Russia, and they’ll have 100%. I suspect they worried about Russia using their Western-built turbines to send gas to China or domestically, once they get the needed pipelines built.
The World’s Third-Largest Economy Is Facing A Looming Energy Crisis
Don’t worry Germany. Just off shore all your industry and know how to China and the third world. The USA did that and look how good it turned out for them. /sarc
“Germany has turbines for its natural gas pipelines from Russia.”
I don’t understand this. Turbines to move the gas in the pipelines, or wind turbines to (supposedly) replace the electricity that would be provided by the gas in the pipelines?
turbines for natural gas pipelines, not wind turbine
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