Pennsylvania Ping!
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Posted on 06/24/2022 6:25:06 PM PDT by lightman
With the U.S. Supreme Court having overturned Roe v. Wade Friday, its landmark and controversial 1973 decision that established a core federal right to have an abortion, Pennsylvania’s governor’s race would seem to be a perfect referendum on the question - if, that is, there weren’t so many other issues.
In this corner, you have Republican nominee Doug Mastriano, a state Senator from Franklin County who supports rolling back of Pennsylvania’s current abortion law to at least the so-called heartbeat threshold, which medical authorities have said essentially means a ban on abortions after about six weeks of pregnancy.
Mastriano has explained his position in campaign videos: “When you have a medical emergency, if you flat-line - if you have no heartbeat - you’re proclaimed dead. So therefore, logically, if you hear a heartbeat, you have a life... I will do everything in my power here to protect babies, so that everyone can live their lives as they see fit and not be struck down by someone’s random decision.”
In a statement Friday on the high court’s decision, Mastriano said Roe v. Wade has been “rightly relegated to the ash heap of history.”
And in that corner, there’s Democratic nominee and sitting Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who reiterated in a press call Friday that he will veto any attempts to roll back Pennsylvania’s existing law, which gives a women the ability to choose an abortion through the first 23 weeks of pregnancy; and to have one after that in cases where continuing with the pregnancy would put her life at risk.
Shapiro called it a fundamental women’s rights issue.
“Look, it’s not freedom to tell a woman what she can do with her own body, and tell them that the politicians in Harrisburg know better. And it’s not freedom to tell a woman how and when and under what terms she can start a family,” Shapiro said. “Real freedom, I believe, comes from trusting the women of Pennsylvania to make decisions over their own bodies, and to make their own decision over when to start and how to start a family.
“I want you to know as your governor I will aways defend that fundamental freedom.”
The governor’s race is in the crucible on this issue because the Supreme Court’s ruling in a case involving a Mississippi law that bans abortion at 15 weeks of pregnancy effectively turns the issue back to the states, and Pennsylvania has a Legislature that - in its present. Republican-led political makeup - seems more than willing to change the current law.
Gov. Tom Wolf, in his eight-year tenure, has already vetoed bills sought to prohibit abortions: After 20 weeks on the premise that is the new threshold for viability and outlawed a standard procedure for second-term abortions (2017); Based on a prenatal diagnosis of Down syndrome (2019). So nothing’s likely to change in Pennsylvania’s abortion law on this year.
But the political decks get shuffled anew this fall.
And just as important as the new occupant of the governor’s office will be whether the Republicans hold their majorities in the state House (now 113-89, with one seat vacant) and state Senate (now 29-21), and by what margins.
Democrats reached Friday expressed hope that they will be able to leverage the idea that - with Roe v. Wade annulled - this election truly is for all the marbles on the abortion rights, and use that to win back votes from suburban women who might otherwise have considered voting Republican as a protest over soaring inflation rates.
“What we’ve seen over the last year or so, some of these suburban voters started peeling away from the Democrats,” said Mike Mikus, a Democratic strategist based in western Pennsylvania. Mikus said he was referring to the 2021 Virginia governor’s race and more recent polling here and elsewhere. “Not necessarily in large numbers. But large enough to be concerning.... I think this can serve as a backstop to these voters fleeing the Democratic Party.”
Other observers talked about abortion being an issue that could help the party energize younger voters, who national polling shows are generally more supportive of abortions rights than their parents and grandparents.
Republicans, meanwhile, countered that based on their own polling - even in the wake of the leaked draft opinion - abortion is never going to match the potency of pocketbook issues as long as inflation stays high, gas costs $5 per gallon and, new for the summer, rising interest rates - they’ll gladly play that issue hand.
That’s especially true, argued Harrisburg-based Republican pollster Brock McCleary, of the prized independents and swing voters who often play pivotal roles in Pennsylvania races.
“Independent voters don’t care (about the abortion issue). And part of the reason they don’t care is that the country is in such a terrible way. Inflation. Gas prices. Empty shelves. Rudderless leadership in Washington. Those are the issues that will decide how middle-of-the-road voters vote... Abortion is not a motivator for the part of the electorate that decides who wins elections.”
“The point is Democrats have no idea what to run on,” McCleary said. “Every conversation that is organically happening in the country is just awful for them.”
That theme was definitely noticed in Mastriano’s statement on the issue Friday.
In a release that could have gloated over a long-sought victory for social conservatives, his campaign urged new leadership on the issue but, instead of making any bold predictions about what’s to come, quickly pivoted to the issues that Republicans feel certain that they can win on in the fall - $5-a-gallon gas; soaring inflation for lots of other everyday items; and now rising interest rates.
“Pennsylvanians will not be distracted by the hysterics of the left as they exploit this ruling to try to fulfill their far left agenda,” Mastriano’s statement said. “As they struggle with all-time record-high inflation the people care deeply about the price of gas and groceries - as well out-of-control crime and good-paying jobs - which is exactly why I will prioritize these issues as their governor.”
Shapiro promised an abortion-plus approach too Friday, noting in response to a reporter’s question that voters’ understand that his prioritization of abortion rights doesn’t mean that he can’t do anything else - especially since he sees his role on the abortion issue as primarily being a defensive one.
“I can walk and chew gum at the same time, and so can the voters,” Shapiro said. “I know that the people of Pennsylvania care about their fundamental freedoms and also care about making sure that we make progress on those other (economic and quality of life) issues that I talked about, and we can focus on both.”
Christopher Nicholas, a veteran Republican campaign consultant who is not working for any of the statewide candidates this year, said Friday he’ll be most interested to see how both Mastriano and Shapiro finesse the abortion issue to use it to their advantage without looking extreme.
In its first sampling of public opinion on abortion since the word of the leaked Supreme Court draft opinion came out in early May, the Gallup Poll found the number of respondents saying they supported legal abortions in all or most circumstances sat 53 percent, with 45 percent saying abortion should be legal only in limited circumstances or never.
But to Nicholas’s point, support for legal abortions drops off significantly from the first trimester of pregnancy, which registered 67 percent in favor to 27 precent against; to the second trimester, where opposition to abortion rose to 55 percent, with just 36 percent in support.
“The voters are in the middle, which is the rape, life and incest exclusions, and then first three months... so both campaigns are going to have to figure out how they finesse that as they go,” Nicholas said.
Abortion has often been a point of demarcation in Pennsylvania’s politics.
What’s new this year is the reality that these differences are no longer just philosophical.
And I hope Josh Shapiro finds similar relegation.
Pennsylvania Ping!
Please ping me with articles of interest.
FReepmail me to be added to the list.
Let the states decide , that’s what Trump wanted and got
Just as the Constitution intended.
I wonder if he feels the states that used to be able to decide if gay marriage would be legal, can do that once again...?
Yeah that's not going to happen. Talk has already started over a federal solution.
American Voters....all!!! The “FAILED” Democrat Party has flopped miserably with its January 6th TV gig. The TV media CEOs are the laughing stock of the country....no one is watching this Democrat farce.
Add a big ditto and watch as the Democrat effort to use the Supreme Court Abortion ruling as their 2022 mid term campaign saver!!!. They are dreaming...period!!!
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