Posted on 06/20/2022 2:33:02 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The White House earlier this month reaffirmed its stance that the Taiwan Strait constitutes "international waters" following the latest US warship sail-through, which had put China's PLA Eastern Theatre Command on high alert. As Reuters reported last Tuesday, "The United States on Tuesday backed Taiwan's assertion that the strait separating the island from China is an international waterway, a further rebuff to Beijing's claim to exercise sovereignty over the strategic passage."
This prompted Beijing to issue its own statement and definition, hitting back that the strait is not "international waters" - thus placing limits on the movements of foreign military vessels in the waters - and further reasserting that it constitutes the mainland's exclusive economic zone. Bloomberg reports Monday that Biden administration officials are "increasingly concerned the stance could result in more frequent challenges at sea for the democratically governed island, according to people familiar with the matter." And further, "Chinese officials have made such remarks repeatedly in meetings with US counterparts in recent months, Bloomberg reported last week." The report underscores that this marks an escalation, given the international legal status of the passageway wasn't previously center of debate as it is now: While China regularly protests US military moves in the Taiwan Strait, the legal status of the waters previously wasn’t a regular talking point in meetings with American officials. Washington is alarmed over the timing, not only given the ongoing fallout from the Russian war in Ukraine, which Beijing has refused to outright condemn, but especially because a week ago China's President Xi Jinping has signed an order which fundamentally expands the conditions under which People's Liberation Army (PLA) troops can be deployed. The order introduced legal framework to deploy troops in "non-war military actions" which took effect Wednesday, according to state media. It could have significant repercussions for tensions with the US and Washington allies like Australia or Japan in places like the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, given the order loosens the conditions under which it's possible to initiate "military operations other than war" which involves operations that do not explicitly involve direct conflict or combat. Depending on how far China wants to press its definition, the most extreme scenario could involve the PLA military moving to close the strait... China is threatening to close the Taiwan Strait | https://t.co/HZxdTz0Xy5 — Australia’s leading news site https://t.co/KMQiwYSfYl — EndGameWW3 🇺🇸 (@EndGameWW3) June 20, 2022 This further means that Xi is hinting he could use the PLA military to begin enforcing the newly articulated position that the Taiwan Strait is not "international waters" - however vague the Chinese position may remain.
But what about supporting the uniparty autocrat dancing democrat hero in Ukraine. That’s what’s important to us.
Shelling of Quemoy and Matsu to recommence in 5...4...3...
“Washington is alarmed over the timing”
I’ll bet they are because China is refusing to allow the US control of its vital shipping lanes, and using Taiwan as an excuse as to why we have so many naval assets in the region. If NATO winds up declaring war on Russia, you can be sure soon afterwards China makes its move on Taiwan.
Xi would be foolish to do so. Japan is still there, and Japan will not allow that to happen.
They may not be a publicly-declared nuclear country, but I am willing to bet they have them and could deliver them with Lexus precision tomorrow.
As a kid, I remember hearing that being announced on the radio.
Assuming Japan has nukes, they would only use them as a last resort should China attack them directly. No way would they be used in defense of Taiwan, that would just invite China to use their nukes against Japan.
China thinks it’s ready for war.
We should probably think it is also.
I don’t think this ends without China getting the snot
kicked out of it sooner or later.
Why do you believe Japan would let Taiwan stand alone?
Japan knows they will be next in the chain that the CCP hits:
Hong Kong
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea (maybe jointly via North Korea)
The Phillipines
Australia
India
The CCP will continue to push.
After Taiwan I see the Philippines next on the list, Japan a distant 3rd at best. If things ever get to that point Russia and China would become allies (of convenience) and Japan currently receives most of its oil from Russia, so Japan isn’t likely to be the one to start hostilities.
You know the $60B+ pi$$ed away in Ukraine this spring would have built, manned and operated two new Ford class carrier battle groups for quite a while. Just saying.
“If NATO winds up declaring war on Russia, you can be sure soon afterwards China makes its move on Taiwan.”
NATO is not going to declare war on Russia. My God, the hyperbole on FR has become silly.
Anybody’s nukes on Taiwan will be immediately met with a Chinese Missile Crisis just as deadly serious as the Cuban one. Most likely the Chinese would attack preemptively. This is the particular DC CF most likely to get us all killed.
“NATO is not going to declare war on Russia. “
Don’t be too sure about that, the US just got its puppet Lithuania to strike the match. They want this war underway before Europe realizes they are totally screwed economically from the sanctions and try backing off. Russia considers what Lithuania did an act of war. What will NATO do should Russia use force to circumvent the blockade?
https://twitter.com/arktinentuuli/status/1512477091773784066
I read the link you included in your post.
My God, the hyperbole. There is NO BLOCKADE! Russian goods can still transit through Lithuania; the only goods that are being excluded are those that specifically fall under the EU and NATO sanctions. And those goods can still be sent via ship and air.
If anyone is going to use this as a pretext for war it is Russia. And if it’s not this pretext, it will be another.
“Anybody’s nukes on Taiwan will be immediately met with a Chinese Missile Crisis just as deadly serious as the Cuban one. Most likely the Chinese would attack preemptively. This is the particular DC CF most likely to get us all killed.”
Why would anyone base their nukes on Taiwan? Certainly we wouldn’t have to, as we have boomers and bombers that don’t have to go anywhere near Taiwan to do their business.
The Chinese and the Russians would like nothing better
than to see us engaged in a two front war.
I heard a few years ago that a Japanese bigwig was asked if Japan would ever consider obtaining nukes. His answer was (and I’m paraphrasing), “If we ever needed nukes we could put them together in an hour.”
“the only goods that are being excluded are those that specifically fall under the EU and NATO sanctions.”
50% of the normal goods are being blocked. In the Lithuania accession treaty right of unhindered Russian passage through there was a condition of that treaty. Whatever goods are being transported isn’t any of Lithuania’s business. This is even worse than blocking a countries port from trading with a third party, they are blocking a country from supplying essential goods to a part of its own territory. This was obviously an intentional escalation.
“50% of the normal goods are being blocked.”
I’m going to pull a BobL on you: Link please.
“Whatever goods are being transported isn’t any of Lithuania’s business.”
You’re clueless. What if hazardous waste was being transported? You think that wouldn’t be of some interest to Lithuania? What if bio-warfare cultures were being shipped through Lithuania? You think that may give Lithuania some concern, and be of some interest? You just jump to illogical conclusions, such as saying Lithuania has no business knowing what is crossing its territory.
“This is even worse than blocking a countries (sic) port from trading with a third party, they are blocking a country from supplying essential goods to a part of its own territory.”
No, they’re not. They are not blocking the goods, they are saying the goods can’t be shipped via that route; but Russia is free to (and has the ability to) ship them via sea or air.
It’s not even similar to what happened in Berlin in 1948 and 1949 when the Russians blocked all ground transportation through East Germany from the West. We responded by flying in supplies and goods. Was that a cause for war? No. Was a war fought over that ground blockade (which blocked EVERYTHING coming through on the ground or via waterways such as canals)? No. If war starts over this, it is 100% on Russia.
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