Posted on 06/15/2022 8:47:11 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
How despairing you feel about these results depends on how charitable you want to be to Republican voters.
But the fact that insurrectionist Doug Mastriano is closer to becoming governor than milquetoast centrist Mehmet Oz is to becoming senator should not fill you with warm and fuzzy feelings about the state of the GOP.
The charitable explanation for Oz trailing John Fetterman by nine points while Mastriano trails Josh Shapiro by just four is that Fetterman is an unusually strong candidate and Oz an unusually weak one. The 46/37 margin between them doesn’t mean Republican voters prefer election truthers like Mastriano to normie candidates, it simply means that Oz is a good match-up for Fetterman on the merits. Fetterman exudes blue-collar Pennsylvania authenticity whereas Oz is a celebrity carpet-bagger who seems to have arrived in the state five minutes ago. Oz also just survived a brutal three-way primary with Dave McCormick and Kathy Barnette. Righties who voted for the latter two might not be in a mood to forgive and forget yet.
There are few Democrats nationally who are going to lead among white voters in a swing state this fall, I’d imagine, but John Fetterman’s burly populism is getting it done in Pennsylvania at Oz’s expense for the moment:
Another significant cross-tab from the #PASEN Suffolk poll: Fetterman leading Oz with white voters, 43-42%.
This, in a state where Trump carried white voters by 15 in 2020 against Biden, per the exit polling.https://t.co/iOXgFq5OhV
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) June 15, 2022
Meanwhile, Oz is the least-liked political figure of any polled by Suffolk. Between the right’s suspicions of him as an opportunistic RINO, the left’s disdain for him as a Trump ass-kisser, and undecideds’ knowledge of him as that quack from TV, he’s in a deep hole on favorability. Especially relative to Fetterman.
Favorables:
Biden 43/53
Fetterman 45/27
Oz 28/50
Shapiro 45/28
Mastriano 36/37
Toomey 26/43
Wolf 44/46https://t.co/Ci3uqaUSmF— Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) June 15, 2022
Only six percent of Pennsylvania voters say they’ve never heard of Oz. Nearly twice as many say they’ve never heard of Mastriano. Maybe, as more Pennsylvanians on both sides find out about Mastriano’s “stop the steal” pedigree, his favorables will sink to Oz levels too. In other words, the fact that Mastriano trails Josh Shapiro by a mere 44/40 may have less to do with Republicans being pro-insurrectionist than simple ignorance of who Mastriano — and Shapiro — are across the electorate. That’ll change over time as the campaign heats up.
The less charitable explanation for Oz underperforming Mastriano is that Republican voters are pro-insurrectionist. Or at least, many are. “2020 election deniers are winning everywhere,” Politico marveled about last night’s results, zeroing in on Nevada in particular. This character is highly likely to be in charge of certifying that state’s elections in 2024:
[Jim] Marchant has said that he ran for secretary of state at the urging of Juan O Savin, a prominent QAnon influencer. After losing a congressional bid by more than 16,000 votes in 2020, Marchant claimed he was the victim of fraud, but failed to produce any evidence of it in a lawsuit seeking to overturning the result.
He has told voters that their vote hasn’t mattered for decades because Nevada’s leaders have “been installed by the deep state cabal”.
After Joe Biden won the state in 2020, Marchant supported sending an alternate pro-Trump slate of electors to Congress. He said in January he would be prepared to do the same in 2024.
He has also pushed counties to decertify Dominion voting machines and to only tally votes using a hand count of paper ballots, a method that experts warn is unreliable.
Marchant wasn’t the only election truther who won there last night: Adam Laxalt, Trump’s candidate, prevailed in the Republican Senate. The midterm political environment is so gruesome for Democrats that I suspect Nevada will flip entirely red this fall, with Marchant surfing the GOP wave to victory. Not all Republican voters will cast their ballots for him because he’s pro-insurrection — some will be indifferent to that fact, believing that an authoritarian Republican is better than any stripe of Democrat, while others will remain blissfully ignorant to Marchant’s coup support due to righty media suppressing that fact. Whatever the reason, he’s not going to lose many Republican votes for being an egregious crank. And maybe not many independent votes either:
#PASEN: Alarming crosstab for Senate Republicans this am from that Suffolk PA poll:
Dr. Oz favorability with INDEPENDENTS: 17-57 (-40)
Biden favorability with INDEPENDENTS: 35-60 (-25)https://t.co/iOXgFq5OhV— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) June 15, 2022
Meanwhile, Mastriano is a mere four points back of becoming governor of Pennsylvania, an office that would give him the power to appoint his own state’s next secretary of state. A few days ago, he was heard babbling about the January 6 riot being America’s Reichstag fire. The reason Shapiro’s campaign spent money to run a pro-Mastriano ad in the Republican gubernatorial was because, supposedly, Mastriano is unelectable and would be easy pickings for Shapiro this fall. But I repeat what I said last night in condemning that tactic: There’s no such thing as an “unelectable Republican” this year in any state where Democrats enjoy less than a 15-point advantage. The left needs to get that through their heads immediately before they cut any more ads for fringe MAGA candidates.
Actually, I should amend what I just said. There’s no such thing as an “unelectable Republican” in swing states this year … except, maybe, Mehmet Oz. A generic Republican running against a generic Democrat for Senate in Pennsylvania would almost certainly win. But Fetterman is the opposite of generic, and Oz is generic in all the wrong ways from the standpoint of grassroots Republicans. It may even be that Fetterman’s getting a bit of a sympathy vote (for now) due to his health crisis. Whatever the explanation, 46/37 is shockingly weak polling in a year when a red tsunami is about to crash down. Although, given how civically diseased our country has become, it’d be fitting if the coup-enabler Mastriano but not the squishy Oz ended up prevailing in November.
Go Oz and go Trump in '24!!
Raw data:
Look deep and there’s lots of bad news for democRats. As Slick Willy said “It’s the economy, stupid.”
All numbers are percentages, sample size 500, margin of error +/- 4.4:
Male 48.8/Female 50.2O/Other 1
Dem 43.3/Rep 39.4/Ind 12.6
White 75%/Black 13.2/Hispanic 12.6
Economy Excellent or good 16/Fair or poor 81
Right Way 29/Wrong Way 54/Undecided 17
Standard of Living Better 17/Worse 48/Same 34
Tommy the Commie Excellent or good 38/Fair or poor 60
Most important issues:
Economy/inflation/immigration/corruption 46
Gun control/Abortion rights/healthcare 36
Trump 8
Foreign affairs 1
RE: Between Oz and Herschel Walker, Trump‘s bad endorsements are going to cost the Republicans the Senate.
1. Why is Herschel Walker a bad endorsement for Georgia?
2. Who would have been a better choice?
RE: Congratulations Senator Fetterman.
See you at the convalescent center.
You’ve got to be kidding. First of all new children keep popping up. Another son got revealed today. Secondly, the guy can’t come up with a coherent thought. He’s just not smart. Third, he’s never held public office. Is the Senate just supposed to be a popularity and name recognition contest?
He has been a rabid Never Trumper from the start.
Let’s check in after November.
Nominating Oz was an epic mistake.
“ There’s no such thing as an “unelectable Republican” in swing states this year … except, maybe, Mehmet Oz”
We’ve got one who can see!
A couple of weeks before the election Suffolk showed Biden leading Trump by 7% in PA. Based on that things are somewhat better in PA than this would suggest.
RE: Third, he’s never held public office.
I wouldn’t consider that a liability at all. Did Trump ever hold public office? Did Bloomberg?
Did Alexandria Ocasio Cortez ever hold public office prior to being Congresswoman?
A lot of folks who held public office for years are the very ones who have ruined this country. Case in point — Joe Biden, in public office for nearly 50 years.
BTW, you haven’t answered my second question... if not Walker, who?
If we wind-up with Fetterman and Shapiro, we’re screwed royally for another 4-6yrs.
The anger and rage is building. The Democrat Party often doesn’t even run candidates where I live. I don’t expect to see any this time around.
Trump did not win PA in 2020.
Public schools have been breeding communists for decades, but few were paying attention.
You’ve got it wrong, never said that.
Hahahaha...
NO.
The PA GOP didn’t like either one of these turds... But they were the “approved” folks.. when voters actually saw someone they liked they rallied to her, and the party statewide and nationally released the hounds to scare the fools back on the plantation.
Neither McCormick nor OZ were exciting to ANY of the GOP electorate here... most of the race they both sat around 18-20% almost to the bitter end.. then both wound up around 30%... after spending more money each than both parties spent on the last general election for senate... $30 Million each vs $28Million total.
They are both duds.. Trump isn’t going get OZ over the finish line, and it shows the absolute lack of understanding of the PA electorate if you think he can. OZ got BOOED when Trump announced him at a Rally here, and yes folks it did happen...
OZ is not sellable.... He is completely off brand to win statewide in PA. Those pushing that he can win are fools or blind. If you want a candidate who can overperform an average R around Philly/NJ Border region, OZ is a reasonable option, he’ll draw in the low information suburban housewives who watched his show... but he will absolutely crash and burn and underperform across the rest of the state, where as a Republican you absolutely MUST do well to have any shot at winning... and OZ won’t sell there.. let alone motivate high turn out etc....
He’s a dud, and a turd. The people pushing him, are assuming that the T will turn out for OZ like they did for Trump and it ain’t gonna happen, not remotely.. they are saying he’ll do good east and doe solid everywhere else, and he wont.. he’s going to grossly underperform even an average R across the rest of the state.
Idea Trump can “proxy” his support onto this turd is comical and won’t work. Trump’s endorsment of Oz moved the needle among GOP voters during the primary of less than 3 points and thats among only GOP voters. He can’t drag this dead cat over the finish line.
Enjoy watching this turd crash and burn....
Philadelphia Inquirer: David McCormick’s longtime praise for China and trade could bite his Pa. Senate run By Jonathan Tamari February 8, 2022
As he courts Donald Trump’s endorsement, McCormick’s past statements and his hedge fund’s investment in China represent perhaps his greatest political liability.
Key Points:
As a Republican Senate candidate in Pennsylvania, David McCormick has echoed former President Donald Trump’s “America First” rhetoric and supported a hard line against China. But when he landed in Beijing in September 2007, he brought a far different message.
“When China succeeds, the United States succeeds,” said McCormick, then the Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs. Both countries, he said, had a “huge interest” in “the continued growth and prosperity of the other.”
“We owe much of the strength and vitality of our economic relationship today to the remarkable success of China’s economic development over the last three decades,” he said then, years before his hedge fund would raise more than $1 billion for investments in China. “No one here should have any doubt about our admiration for what China has achieved.” It wasn’t an isolated statement. As both a public official and private citizen, McCormick in the late 2000′s delivered speeches, made comments, and wrote essays that praised China’s economic growth and touted the benefits of U.S. access to a vast, rising market. He advocated for welcoming high-skilled immigrants, urged America to embrace free trade and globalization, and warned repeatedly against protectionism and “Buy USA” provisions in federal law. Most notably to McCormick’s GOP primary rivals, just three months ago the hedge fund where he was CEO, Bridgewater Associates, raised $1.25 billion for an investment fund in China… According to The Wall Street Journal, it made Bridgewater one of the largest foreign managers of private money in China.
As McCormick runs in Pennsylvania’s GOP primary, and openly courts Trump’s approval, those past statements, combined with his hedge fund’s investment, now represent perhaps his greatest political liability — especially in a party that has adopted Trump’s protectionist posture.
His rivals see vulnerability. Their main line of attack against McCormick, played out in millions of dollars of TV ads, has been his hedge fund’s investment in China. “China’s friend, not ours,” concludes one recent attack ad from GOP rival Mehmet Oz.
#
I am not an advocate of McCormick... OZ is just as much in bed with the WEF and McCormick so if that was your reason for picking OZ you got played.
BOTH are turds... it was a non choice granted to you by the swamp that is the PA GOP and sadly most GOP voters in PA fell for the non choice “choice”.
I have faith in Trump. If he can’t pull Oz over the finish then line no one can. McBlackwater was way worse.
Bridgewater not Blackwater.
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