Posted on 06/12/2022 2:52:35 AM PDT by UMCRevMom@aol.com
Almost 4 months after the start of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the war turned into an "artillery duel". And victories in battles are increasingly being won by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. A significant role in this is played by the supply of Western weapons, which are gaining momentum, but are still insufficient. Der Spiegel writes about this in an analytical article.
"At the beginning of the offensive, when Russian troops began to advance in large columns from the north to major Ukrainian cities such as Kiev and Kharkiv, the goal was to lure the enemy into ambushes, where anti-tank weapons were waiting for him. However, now that the struggle has migrated to the vast steppes of the south and east of Ukraine, it has become more violent, more ruthless... Courage, experience and imagination do not help much when the necessary weapons are not at hand," the newspaper writes.
Journalists quote the Ukrainian deputy, Colonel Roman Kostenko, who now commands a special unit that works closely with the Gunners. The MP believes that it is artillery that will be of decisive importance in the battle for the Ukrainian South, where the unit headed by him is fighting.
The publication notes that if initially the Ukrainian army had mainly Soviet-made artillery systems at its disposal, now the share of Western equipment is growing.
"On one of the fields covered with artillery, M777 is firing at Russian positions. The United States promised the Ukrainian military 108 such howitzers, as well as 200,000 rounds of ammunition for them. Howitzers are not self-propelled, they are towed by other vehicles. In addition, the" Triple Seven", which the Ukrainians call" three axes", has a longer range than Russian artillery, and uses standard - sized NATO shells that can be replenished, " the newspaper writes, adding that Norway and France also supplied Ukrainian artillery.
According to adviser to the head of the Office of the president of Ukraine Alexey Arestovich, the supply of Western artillery is "decisive" for the situation at the front today. Without them, he says, "the enemy would now storm Zaporozhye, take Lisichansk and surround Slavyansk."
"In close combat, battalion vs battalion, we win," says Arestovich. "Our problem is that the enemy is shooting at us with almost impunity from a long distance." This, according to him, explains the high Ukrainian losses of up to 100 servicemen daily. Ukraine, he adds, ran out of ammunition for its own rocket launchers in early April, "except for the inviolable reserve," the author of the article quotes Arestovich's statement.
At the same time, the Russian occupiers do not experience a shortage of artillery and ammunition - and use them at full capacity in the Donbas.
"The Ukrainian commander on the Eastern Front called Russian tactics a 'wall of fire'. Before each attack, they create a "blanket" of artillery fire, which allows them to inflict losses on Ukrainian defenders. And the Russians are unlikely to run out of ammunition in the near future: "they use Soviet-era stocks, and the Soviets were not stingy when it came to weapons." The commander also praises the New M777 howitzers." the Russians are afraid of them, " he says.
Journalists also quote John Spencer, a military expert at the Madison Policy Forum think tank, who believes that these Western systems "significantly affect the Donbass."
"Ukrainians are now waiting for the next delivery from the West. The United States intends to send four M142 HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems. And the British promised several M270 systems, a multiple launch rocket system with a range of up to 80 kilometers. This is not only twice as much as that of American howitzers, but also slightly exceeds the range of comparable Russian systems. And the Germans promised to deliver four MARS II systems by the end of June," writes Der Spiegel.
Western rocket launchers are capable of destroying enemy artillery from a long distance. And while Russian missile launchers are notorious for their inaccuracy, with a scattering radius of 170 meters, HIMARS and M270 allow accurate strikes provided that GPS-guided missiles are used.
"These systems will really make a difference," said Mark Kanchian, an analyst at The Washington - based think tank at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"The problem, however, is that the eight systems promised by the Americans, British and Germans are not enough to protect against Russian offensive along the entire front line. "10 systems are probably enough for the Donbass alone, but it is likely that at least twice as many are needed for the rest of the front," Kanchian said.
Journalists state that recently Ukraine has been conducting counterattacks in the southern region, the medium – term goal is to recapture the territory west of the Dnieper. Russia captured Kherson, which gave it a springboard on the West Bank of the river, from which it could move to Odessa.
Now, says Colonel Kostenko, the Ukrainian army is able to strike at the initial positions of the invaders with the help of targeted artillery, which is controlled using drones.
"But then they send reserves, and we can't protect the territory," he says.
According to Kostenko, Modern Multiple Launch Rocket Systems with their long range will allow Ukrainian soldiers to also attack Russia's reserve lines, which will facilitate the maintenance of the recaptured territory.
"Meanwhile, the United States has made it quite clear about the possibilities of weapons systems, taking president Zelensky's promise that Ukraine will not use rocket launchers to fire at Russian territory. And Washington decided not to supply the so-called ATACMS missile, which can be launched by the same launchers, but has a range of up to 300 km. Russian President Vladimir Putin did not seem impressed by the announced deliveries of missile systems, because he said that they "will not change anything in essence," the newspaper writes.
And even those MLRS that are already on the way will not be able to start using immediately.
"The question is how quickly Ukraine will actually be able to deploy multiple launch rocket systems. Four HIMARS systems from the United States have already been transported to Europe, but Ukrainian soldiers still need to be trained in their use, and this training is given three weeks. Meanwhile, German systems require software configuration, which can lead to significant delays, possibly even before winter," the publication writes.
Journalists recalled that the German government is delaying the supply of heavy weapons to Ukraine.
So far, Berlin has only supplied light weapons and ammunition, including anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, 16 million rounds of ammunition, 50 field medical vehicles, and 80 armored SUVs.
"However, when it comes to heavy weapons, all that Ukraine has received from Berlin is promises. Other countries sent much more. Poland, for example, supplied 230 upgraded T-72 battle tanks, and the Czech Republic — 61 armored personnel carriers," States Der Spiegel.
The publication also noted the "huge solidarity" of Eastern European countries with Ukraine, which was a victim of Russian aggression.
"In tiny Lithuania, the population raised 5 million euros to buy a Bayraktar combat drone for Ukrainians. And the Eastern European ones also helped in other ways: they still had a significant number of Soviet weapons that the Ukrainians could easily use. Western systems may be better, but they need training," the newspaper writes.
Recall that on June 11, it became known when Ukraine will receive the long-suffering howitzers from Germany. According to the Ukrainian ambassador to this country Andriy Melnyk, the Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers are approximately on June 22. After that, German Gepard anti-aircraft self-propelled guns are expected to be delivered.
Only verified information is available in the Obozrevatel Telegram channel and in Viber. Don't be led to fakes
Grammar Nazi? That’s great. Nothing to tell on substance.
Too many PoWs though!
A 40 mile column which sat for a month unmolested....
LOL. thats pure propaganda.
Z should try to get a ceasefire.
this could continue a long time if he doesn’t.
slowly and steadily ukes lose territory every day....
Clashes between the AFU and Russian forces continue near Bohorodychne;
Russian forces took control of Severodonetsk Airport;
Russian forces took control of the village of Pryshyb;
Clashes between the AFU and Russian forces continue in the Azot plant and nearby districts in Severodonetsk city;
Russian forces secured the area of Church of Saint George;
The DPR command announced the beginning of the battle for the city of Slavyansk;
Clashes between the AFU and Russian forces continue along the Bakhmut-Lisichansk road.
donbass map at link
https://s2.cdnstatic.space/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/11june2022_Eastern_Ukraine_Izyum_Severodonetsk_map.jpg
Other articles on this conflict state that the USA has 220,000 rounds in the pipeline, enough for four (4) days of this conflict. Simply stated, the Ukriane can mount a “Battle of the Bugle” as did Germany in WWII to try to dislodge the Russians, or they can draw their own line and accept peace.
That the Z-man is being hugh out by even Biden shows he has no more support to continue “The War Biden Supposedly Warned Him About”. When you’ve lost Biden and the Democrats, you end up like Saigon.
> They kept demanding the return of Donbas and also demanded Crimea.
Gotta keep the money spigot flowing.
Russia had its own tradition of ship building fitting its conditions until 18th century, where her shipping was contained to Arctic, riverways and cabotage about the Black Sea. That includes unique classes of vessels that are good for it unknowns elsewhere. Peter 1 planned blue water navy and it made sense to adopt traditions.
Before the age of discovery, British and Dutch had ships inferior to the Russian until they learnt the technology from Spanish. Are they backward or what?
One of the lines of organized anti-Russian propaganda is “exposing” it as not a full autarky without saying it.
“You don’t make cars or TV anybody wants to buy” is the most popular charge. That sounds huge from citizens of the countries supporting globalism to start with, mostly the US or UK who are particularly found of anti-Russian propaganda. At the same time there are cars and TVs of Russian make, but all the British are foreign-operated or imported and I am not aware of American TVs.
If you are not aware of trade restrictions against Russia then do your research. It is under all sorts of sanctions, none of them related to intellectual property but usually imposed over political reasons, mostly out of fear and envy to hinder development. Regarding intellectual property, Russian regime of its protection is among the harshest in the world and patent infringement means time in prison most of the time.
Regarding war fighting to me all the West has at this point is superior propaganda. Tell me when was the last time NATO prosecuted a campaign against a semi-advanced opponent? It never took place. For anyone informed, Ukrainian war exposes the inferiority of the Western doctrines for NSW war, or more like its outright deterioration since the end of the Cold War. I’d like to see how NATO is going to fight a full-scale war without the ability to maintain the oversized logistic train, without the ability to maintain the air supremacy and most most of the smart weapons rendered useless due to electronic warfare, not to mention lower number of cumbersome mainline weapon systems. You know why the NATO heavy weapons are not coming to Ukraine. That’s going to blow the myth that only the Russian tanks get destroyed.
Regarding WWII tell me which country didn’t have the non-aggression pact with Germany. Poland certainly had and dismembered Czechoslovakia with the Germans before the German-Soviet pact. Learn the history of the German-Soviet pact as well. It is not a huge secret and can be found in professional Western sources, but totally omitted in popular propaganda and isn’t taught in public school because your education is the extension of propaganda.
Sucker punch is too strong of a definition. Was bribery and corruption involved is a suggestion which may be true or not.
Your idea of popular self-defense is mostly a propaganda. The numbers joined it are low and they are forcefully conscripting into it since the third week.
Regarding “patriotism” 70% of Ukrainians in the Southeast are supporting the Russians, in the center it is 50/50, the West is predominantly anti-Russian. 500 people joining self-defense in of a city of 100,000 is not an indicator of patriotism. About 40,000 of Ukrainians are fighting against Ukraine as part of pro-Russian militia at the same time, and more are joining in the liberated areas.
The “offensive of Kiev” “collapsed” due to unwillingness to make it into another Mariupol. It wasn’t a military defeat even though some casualties were taken due to the fact that Ukrainians didn’t care about their own people and subjected suburbs to a total destruction by heavy artillery. They killed 100 times more their people than they killed Russians while at it. I think if there was an idea of offensive from start it was abandoned on the third day and the troops remained to tie the Ukrainian forces from reinforcing Southeast.
The idea of successful AT weapons, poor equipment and logistics are propaganda, not based on reality. According to the PoWs and rebels who evaluated the weapons, Javelins do not work most of the time. Most of the losses you see peddled as Russian are actually Ukrainian. For battlefield logistics don’t make me laugh. Nobody is going to afford the typical oversized NATO logistics trains employed at typical non-wars in a real war. If you’d try it in Ukraine, the Russians are going to inflict the damage in tens of thousands of casualties and more so in material over a couple days on your rears.
As for the political outcomes, I see your point, but it is the reason why the war is going to continue until the conditions for your scenario are going to disappear.
Our views of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are in near comprehensive disagreement. Western intelligence conservatively estimates that Russia has lost about 1,000 main battle tanks, with about 25,000 dead. This is not a sign of success. Even if Russia captures enough territory to pretend that victory has been achieved, her losses and the strengthening of opposition to Russia in Europe make such a victory unaffordable. Autocratic regimes commonly die through such defeats.
Quite so. Putin will go down in history as a brutal and corrupt thug who wrecked and discredited his country.
My family is originally from Ukraine and not of Russian heritage so I know the sentiments and have no idea what objective data is the ground for your opinion. Popular propaganda must be that but it is currently totally unsynchronized with reality to the point that it is hard not to see.
“Western intelligence” is increasingly admitting that their figures are based on (incorrect) data submitted by the Ukrainian side.
The figures make exactly zero sense. How do you expect the original group to maintain capability after losses like that? Not only it is not getting seriously reinforced, it keeps rotating within itself.
Russian society doesn’t see the war the way you describe it, even though originally there was a WTF moment and serious opposition. Ham-fisted Western response was the case, and not even any propaganda was required for the majority of all stripes to side with Putin after a couple weeks.
It is not a Russian-Ukrainian war. It is a NATO-Russia war where Ukrainians are used as proxy according to public opinion.
The objective, as I see it now, unchanged since the initial plan was revoked, is to secure the entire Russia-leaning part which is very close to achieving. The only territory in question for me is Dnepropetrovsk. The rest of the country is going to remain as an ossified neutral rump state. Absolutely nothing is going to change the outcome, even the NATO boots on the ground.
So nothing is going to change the outcome? So says the same troll who said Kiev would fall within days back in February. In Russian cities like Krasnoyarsk discontent with the war is growing. The heaps of Russian dead that the coming weeks will produce will agitate the spirit of rebellion in many areas.
“So nothing is going to change the outcome? So says the same troll who said Kiev would fall within days back in February. In Russian cities like Krasnoyarsk discontent with the war is growing. The heaps of Russian dead that the coming weeks will produce will agitate the spirit of rebellion in many areas.”
ROLFMAO! I think even the Daily Mail abandoned this preposterous line. In hindsight, it was better for Kiev to fall in February, for the sake of Ukrainian statehood.
For the Donbas pincer it is largely over, there is a reliable supply line established for Odessa offensive, and Harkov is about to follow.
Meanwhile, Europe is slow-boiling economically and I’d like to see how it is going to look by winter.
Bloc chief Jens Stoltenberg said that a deal will come at a price, but insisted it's up to Ukraine
www.rt.com/news/557057-stoltenberg-ukraine-give-territory/
With your record of predicting the future, all we have to do is reverse your predictions to see what will happen.
Okay, you are free to ASSume anything:)
Hehe. It wasn’t the issue until they collapsed the Istanbul talks.
Scrap titanium is 35 cents a pound. A ton is $700.
Propaganda has to have some level of credibility.
Or maybe I have fallen for propaganda, and Russia's war with Ukraine is actually going well, just as planned, with Putin being a master strategist and in the pink of health. Those many videos of exploding Russian tanks must all be Hollywood CGI. And sanctions must be making Russia stronger, not weaker, with the eastern bits of Ukraine soon to add to Mother Russia's greatness. After all, isn't there are Russian folk saying that serious illness can be cured by carrying a new burden?
No, I think not. Putin and Russia are increasingly isolated and despised, with Putin's mutterings about having been "betrayed" by the West demonstrating both unsound mind and a sense of failure. And Putin's health issues are such that he is hiding them by the extreme measure of having his excrement treated as a national secret, specially collected and returned to Russia in a secured briefcase when he was on a recent trip to Paris.
One way or another, the current war will end, Putin will be gone, and Russia's decline will continue as Ukraine rebuilds and eventually recovers her lost territory.
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