Posted on 06/07/2022 8:36:18 AM PDT by frogjerk
The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.
Recent forecasts for the GDPNow model are available here. More extensive numerical details—including underlying source data, forecasts, and model parameters—are available as a separate spreadsheet. You can also view an archive of recent commentaries from GDPNow estimates.
Please note that we no longer support the GDPNow app. Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website to continue to get the latest GDP nowcast and more economic data.
Latest estimate: 0.9 percent — June 7, 2022 The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 0.9 percent on June 7, down from 1.3 percent on June 1. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 4.4 percent and -8.3 percent, respectively, to 3.7 percent and -8.5 percent, respectively. Also, the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.25 percentage points to -0.13 percentage points.
How low can you go? How low can you go?
GDP includes government spending of all types.
Without it, the REAL economy is contracting rapidly, and at the same time we have accelerating inflation.
Not looking good.
No matter what, they will not report another negative quarter, as that would make a by-definition recession before the elections.
This is just the warm up, just wait until the main attraction shows up, it will be one heck of a party and the hangover will be EPIC!!!
Yep, it will be +.000000000000000000001% if it has to for the 2nd quarter.
Does this account for inflation? If it does not the numbers are meaningless and we are in negative territory.
Recession. When will the media call it what it is.
“Does this account for inflation? If it does not the numbers are meaningless and we are in negative territory.”
Good point. What role does inflation have in this?
RE: GDPNOW - Latest estimate: 0.9 percent — June 7, 2022
Isn’t that close to the highest GDP report in history?
According to the Biden Administration & the MSM
Catturd ™
The Biden regime’s latest desperate strategy is to just lie and tell everyone how great the economy is.
+———————
The Hill @thehill
· Jun 6
President Biden: “Part of the reason I ran for president is because I was tired of trickle-down economics. It doesn’t work. My plans have produced the strongest, fastest, most wide-spread economic recovery America has ever experienced with record jobs.”
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