Posted on 05/20/2022 8:36:40 AM PDT by navysealdad
Exactly. This whole Mess has just started, let’s see where the Ruble is 6-9 months from now. It is likely that the Russian economy will be a basket case by then. Even if the war ended tomorrow, the Russians have cut their own throats by encouraging the Europeans to seek other energy sources besides Russian oil and gas. I don’t expect that shift away from Russian energy to turn around for quite a long time if ever and it will really strike them hard in 6-12 months as the Europeans get their alternatives online.
The central bank raised interest rates to 20%, forced Russian exporters to convert 80% of their foreign exchange revenues into rubles, and limited the amount of money Russians can withdraw from foreign-currency accounts to $10,000. All of this, as well as Putin’s demand that countries pay for natural gas with rubles, was designed to create false demand for the ruble and control the domestic market. The one problem with all of this, of course, is that at some point it has to come to an end.
While Russia is surviving, the long-term outlook for the Russian economy is dire. The extreme measures that have been put in place to counter sanctions are not long-term solutions, and if the illusion of stability in the ruble eventually collapses, the economy will too. The country also has to deal with its inability to access the technology and goods necessary to maintain key industries. Other realities such as ‘brain drain’, caused by international isolation, and the eventual reduction in demand for its oil and gas exports will only further diminish its economic strength. Russia has survived sanctions better than almost any other country could, but the struggle is far from over for Moscow.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Russias-Economy-Hasnt-Collapsed-Under-The-Weight-Of-Sanctions.html
The Russians have cut their own throats by encouraging a huge push to non dino energy. Oil and gas prices will not stay high forever and when they head much lower, Russia’s production will be substantially lower and they will be in a world of hurt, less product at lower prices and having to sell at a discount to “friendly” countries.
This is like criminals getting all giddy over their newly robbed loot, not realizing judgment day is coming.
The Soviet fanboys here cheer every tiny headline from any source.
Stupid people see the world through only through their own frames and biases. When those blind ideologues are in Washington DC, they create great danger to everyone.
They can’t conceive of a world that doesn’t act according to their self-important, blinkered views of economics, culture, religion
Good money in selling oil huh Joey.
Wonder how long the line of dots are that connect Joey to Putin’s part of the take?.
The handwriting should have been on the wall when the U.S. and Europe began imposing sanctions on Russia a few months ago. Most of the world's nations seemingly got on board with these sanctions, but even just a small number of those that didn't comprise more than 50% of the world's population -- including both China and India.
And now I read this morning that Italy is buying four times more Russian oil today than it was before the sanctions were imposed. That's probably just one example of many in that fading basket-case known as Europe.
“that didn’t comprise more than 50% of the world’s population”
You know better than to use population numbers. The US has 1/3 the population of India but 10 times the GDP. Only a fool would choose the higher population country for their target market.
Ruble exchange rate is meaningless because Russia is restricting the trade of Ruble.
They are doing capital control just like the CCP. They won’t let anyone in their country trade their rubles for Dollars and move their money offshore. So the exchange rate is meaningless.
Darn, I should have bought stock when it first came out...
While you are correct in some of your assertions one major fly in the ointment is China. While China the biggest third world economy, has and does import oil and LNG from Russia, they have always have for security reasons, adopted a diverse energy importation strategy. They do not want to overly rely on one source of energy for their needs. They also do not with to run afoul of sanctions at this time and are having problems finding LNG shipping willing to move Russian gas or banks to finance procurements of Russian energy products. While they likely will continue to deal with Russia, there are currently limits to any attempt to dramatically increase their imports.
The ruble was at 140 for every dollar right after the sanctions hit and how is at 57 for every dollar.
Russia is collecting more in oil revenue than before the war began.
The sanction war has been total failure. The Russians were prepared for the sanctions, overcome them and, now, Russia is set to thrive in the future because of all this.
What kind of conservative backs the idiotic Biden regime strategy on this?
You're a fool. The Russians are set to thrive in the near future. European nations have caved and are paying for oil in rubles, which is the reason the ruble is strengthening. That will NEVER change. Oil prices are likely to continue to rise and Russia is and will continuing to collect more oil revenue than before the war began for the foreseeable future.
Neocons aren't the sharpest tools in the shed. You deserved to be embarrassed for backing the Biden regime's idiotic strategy on all of this.
India is ranked somewhere around #4 or #5.
Regardless of whether you look at them by GDP or population, these are enormous markets for energy producers like Russia.
Posted yesterday::
“Pivoting exports to Asia will take time and massive infrastructure investments that in the medium term will see Russia’s production and revenues drop precipitously,” she added.
What do you think of this argument for 900 gold?
“What kind of conservative backs the idiotic Biden regime strategy on this?”
The guy who posted #19 on this thread.
Oh yeah we are all dumb not a super financial genius like you. Yeah the Ruble is doing great. The Ruble is stronger than before and the world is beating their door down for Russian products right ??? You neglected to mention some of the games the Russians are doing to create demand for and inflate their currency…..20% interest rates, a requirement that any Russian company doing business overseas must convert 80% of their earnings into rubles, banning sales of Russian stocks and securities owned by foreigners and banning the conversion of rubles into Euros dollars or any other foreign currency. Yeah you are right Russia and the ruble are kicking butt, all those internal restrictions on their currency just show how strong they are even though if another country did those things it would be viewed by everybody as a desperate attempt to prop up their currency.
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