Posted on 05/20/2022 8:36:40 AM PDT by navysealdad
“Tell me when Russia will go into a deep recession. A year from now? Six months? Two weeks? Two days?”
Officially it will be Oct 1st. Definition of a recession is two straight quarters of declining GDP. Estimates are that Russian GDP in this quarter will see a 7% decline. The next quarter of the decline will run until the end of September after which Russia will officially in recession.
AFAIK we discussed it months ago when it was higher and I told you it is going to get 14% soon. The rest of my prediction still stands.
1% rate is nothing to be proud about, especially with the inflation that high.
If we keep spending we will be Rubble before Russia. World wide economic depression only leads to a world full of trouble and new Fascists’ dictators and the Rise of World Communism. The way Capitalist (Ha ha) US is going—Communism is looking better and better.
These sanctions are working great.
“The sanction war has been total failure. The Russians were prepared for the sanctions, overcome them and, now, Russia is set to thrive in the future because of all this.”
Put down the crack pipe. They were prepared by the sanctions by leaving 3/4’s of their reserves in Western banks? That was pure genius preparation. /sarc How come the head of the Russian central bank stated that the sanctions are wreaking havoc and she says the worse is yet to come?
I'm sure the Russians didn't expect that money to stolen.
But, yes, in every other way, Russia has come out on top. The ruble is now at a four-year compared to the dollar. Russia is collecting more in oil revenue is higher than it was before the war began. Russia is running a surplus to its Treasury.
Russia soon likely will be demand rubles for wheat.
And, Russia hasn't even began to retaliate. If Russia ever decides to cutoff oil, fertilizer or wheat to Europe, there will be suffering there that hasn't been seen in decades.
Biden's sanction war has been an absolutely FAILURE, just like everything else he's done. If you want to be one with Biden, join Bill Kristol, Cindy McCain and Max Boot and become a Democrat.
“But, yes, in every other way, Russia has come out on top.”
You are in fantasy land. Their citizens have to be forced to take and use their piss-ant little currency. It’s real worth is what it goes for on the black market.
This is REAL LIFE in Russia after sanctions - a disaster.
An economy getting weaker doesn't see it's currency become significantly more valuable:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-20/ruble-surges-to-7-year-high-as-gazprom-clients-heed-putin-on-gas
Ruble Hits 5-Year High as Gas Buyers Bend to Putin’s Will
The ruble jumped as much as 9% against the euro and ended Friday’s session 2.8% stronger against the dollar in Moscow. The Russian currency is the best performer globally this year.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-12/russia-oil-revenue-up-50-this-year-despite-boycott-iea-says
Russia Oil Revenue Up 50% This Year Despite Boycott, IEA Says
You are such a clueless dolt. A currency being heavily manipulated does not follow what the economy is doing. It’s like a heavily manipulated penny stock’s price has zero to do with the company’s real financial condition. You have the economic and financial and trading understanding of a child.
“An economy getting weaker doesn’t see it’s currency become significantly more valuable:”
Genius, the US dollar is hitting a 20 year high. So according to YOU, it’s economy must be getting much stronger.
When a currency is truly strong, people and companies and other countries DO NOT HAVE TO BE STRONG ARMED INTO USING IT LIKE IS THE CASE WITH YOUR PRECIOUS RUBLE.
Are you seriously claiming that a country's currency gaining strength is the sign of a weak economy or a bad thing for country? If so, you're a moron.
In the case of the dollar, it's gaining strength because we're in far better shape than the rest of the world in near future.
In the case of the ruble, it's because Putin has forced European countries to pay for oil rubles. That is continue and Russia is going to continue reap the benefits, even more so when the force "unfriendly" countries to pay in rubles for wheat or fertilizer.
And, Russia increasing the amount of revenue it is taking in to anyone economically literate is obviously a boon for the Russian economy.
Russia has Europe by the balls. Europe needs Russian oil, wheat and fertilizers. We need Russian fertilizer. When a country has something in great demand, that can only mean good things economically for a nation. Again, only someone economically illiterate doesn't grasp that.
The entire world is suffering from significant inflation and there are potentially very serious shortages. Russia is the one of the few countries that is completely self-sufficient and one of the few exporters of desperately need resources.
Russia is far better shape than most of the rest of the world. And, even, in better shape than we are, largely thanks to Biden's policies.
The sanctions are complete and total failure. They are Biden's failure but uniparty neocons like yourself are intend on forcing Republicans to share the blame for this failures.
“That will NEVER change. (Europeans buying Russian oil with rubles). Oil prices are likely to continue to rise”
Everything changes, and Russia is likely to be hurt when it does. Europeans are on a fast track to stop buying Russian oil at all, and oil prices have historically swung from boom to bust.
While Europeans are rushing to buy oil from others, they are bidding up the price. When those contracts are signed however, a tipping point will eventually occur, as it always does, where prices will drop. Russia is going to be in a very bad position to absorb the next cyclical price swing (lower volumes, and inherently high costs to produce and transport).
Arguably, it was an oil price crash that brought down the Soviet Union.
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