April's consumer price index report expected to show inflation has already peaked

cmbc via msn ^ | 5/10/2022 | Patti Domm

[Sgt_Schultze]

ShadowStats.com

Click the pic for more charts

[tnlibertarian]

You’re right. I missed the “Core” in your statement. What I hate is when people see the CPI and then claim that doesn’t include food and energy. I incorrectly accused you of doing so.

[Alberta's Child]

There are far too many variables that contribute to the price of gasoline for any one of them to influence a long-term trend that does not vary. There are always anomalies in any given year, but the general trend over the last few decades is pretty clear based on the link below. Look at the difference between the average March price and the average May price for each year, and then look ahead to the average July price for that same year.

I'm not sure exactly when the process for using different fuel blends for summer and winter months started, but I began to notice this trend early on in the Obama administration. If you look at the link below, you'll see that since 2010, the average July price is lower than the average May price in every year except three -- and two of them were the 2020-2021 years when the U.S. economy was heavily impacted by COVID-related disruptions that made them atypical years.

Average Fuel Prices by Month, 1990-Present

Keep in mind that under normal supply-and-demand conditions, July prices should usually be higher than May due to the higher demand during summer driving months. That is rarely ever the case, as it turns out.

[Paul R.]

Right, but, point is, the velocity of the jump in 2022 is large compared to prior (comparable / no Covid) years, “sort of” exceptions (not as steep) being in 2008, where prices kept rising through July, and Oct. 2010 - May 2011.

From your link, since 2010:

2010 Jan 2.715__ March 2.772__ May 2.836__ July 2.729

2011 Jan 3.095__ March 3.561__ May 3.906__ July 3.650

2012 Jan 3.380__ March 3.852__ May 3.732__ July 3.439

2013 Jan 3.319__ March 3.711__ May 3.615__ July 3.591

2014 Jan 3.313__ March 3.313__ May 3.673__ July 3.611

2015 Jan 2.116__ March 2.464__ May 3.539__ July 2.794

2016 Jan 1.949__ March 1.969__ May 3.626__ July 2.239

2017 Jan 2.349__ March 2.325__ May 3.673__ July 2.300

2018 Jan 2.555__ March 2.591__ May 2.901__ July 2.849

2019 Jan 2.248__ March 2.516__ May 2.859__ July 2.740

2020 Jan 2.548__ March 2.234__ May 1.870__ July 2.183

2021 Jan 2.334__ March 2.810__ May 2.985__ July 3.158

2022 Jan 3.315__ March 4.222__ May (4.38)__ July ****

The overall rise since Biden took office is very “impressive” too, even allowing for recovery from COVID restrictions.

Nonetheless, the real item of concern is the tracking with oil prices. Between Biden’s restrictions here, OPEC’s (lead by Saudi) rather justified Snake Island Salute to Biden, and ramifications of the Ukraine war, oil staying well over $100 / barrel looks very likely to me.

[Alberta's Child]

Look at percentages instead of raw numbers. Gasoline is up about 32% this year from January to May. That's high, but not outlandish. And it's been much higher in other years:

2017: 56%
2015: 67%
2016: 86%

[bert]

I think it can be argued that the rise in gas prices is not the same inflation as say food.

There are unique supply changes that cause the price of gas to rise

[Alberta's Child]

Exactly. That’s why fuel isn’t included in the major inflation calculations.

[The Louiswu]

Core inflation excludes food and energy costs.

That's just not realistic now is it

[miserare]

C’mon, guys. You all know it’s Putin’s fault and there is nothing Joe can do about it. 🙀😱🤪

[Paul R.]

Fair point. For some reason those 3 years in succession had unusually big jumps March-May, while in years with more modest Jan. - May increases, a substantial part of the increases occurred in Jan. - March. Maybe staggering vs. not staggering switchovers was involved?

2022 was exceptional for its large Jan. - March gasoline price jump - I should have been more specific. May '22, we don't fully know about, yet, although I note this morning locally a 15-18 cent jump since yesterday. Refinery utilization is good in my region, in fact, in all but the Rocky Mountain and West Coast states, so I'm guessing switchovers to summer blends are largely complete in the Central and Eastern US -- but prices continue to rise.

We will see. But if global oil demand continues to press supply...

[Paul R.]

Note also that I’m hoping, for the sake of my family and many others, that you are right and we will see a drop in gas prices to under $4 per gallon by July. I’m just not betting on it...