Posted on 05/06/2022 4:41:27 AM PDT by tlozo
The crew of RTS Moskva (121) was blind to and not ready for the Ukrainian missile attack that sank Russia’s Black Sea flagship, according to a new analysis of the April 13 strike reviewed by USNI News.
The review of images following the strike of the two Neptune anti-ship missiles from open-source naval analyst and retired Navy Capt. Chris Carlson told USNI News that the guided-missile cruiser did not have its radars activated and could not see the threat from the two weapons.
In the photo of Moskva after the strike, the radars “are in their normal stowed position,” Carlson told USNI News on Monday.
“If you look at the pictures of Moskva, when she’s just dancing around going from place to place, or she’s anchored as a showboat, those directors are all facing aft every time,” he said.
The analysis is based on images of the Slava-class guided-missile cruiser that emerged just after the attack off the coast of Ukraine from what the Ukrainians claim were two Neptune-class anti-ship missiles.
Analysis from Chris Carlson shows how the radars on the ship were in their stowed position in photos following the missile strike. Images used with permission
While the Russian warship had older point-defense systems, they would have been capable of countering the Neptune missiles based on a 40-year-old Soviet design, which was in turn based on the U.S. Navy’s Harpoon anti-ship missile, he said.
“This is like Harpoon. It’s a small missile. Its warhead is about 145 kilograms, travels less than 10 meters off the deck [and has] radar homing,” Carlson said. “This is not, shall we say, a stressing threat for air defense systems. It’s not supersonic.”
In particular, the radar system that would have directed Moskva’s OSA-M surface to air missiles to counter the Ukrainian missiles appears to not have been active with its emitters stowed, based on the photograph.
“If you’re not running it, your point defense [surface to air missiles] are not going to be playing,” Carlson said.
In addition, on Moskva, “you’ve got old stuff, which means it’s temperamental. It’s hard to maintain, and at-sea maintenance has not been a Russian strength.”
Based on the photographs that circulated following the strike, the two Neptunes hit the warship near its most vulnerable point: the ship’s main propulsion spaces, dead center of the ship, just above the waterline.
“A missile hit in the forward engine room would very likely cause significant damage to the cruise gas turbines and steam turbines and could potentially distort the main shaft sufficiently to cause damage to the reduction gears of the boost turbines,” Carlson wrote. “Heavy damage in the post of energy and survivability compartment could cause a loss of all electrical power, as well as potentially disabling the ship’s automated damage control capability.”
Combined with the Russian Navy’s uneven training for sailors in damage control, Carlson said the photographs lend credence to Ukraine’s explanation that they were able to target, fire missiles and hit the target with their own resources.
Following the initial strike, a Telegram channel with ties to the Russian mercenary Wagner Group said the crew observed Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2s near the ship. The Ukrainian Navy began acquiring the combat drones starting in the last year and they are equipped with an electro-optical system that’s capable of providing the Neptune command system enough information via datalink to target the missiles.
“All they have to do is laze once or twice and then they have a feasible targeting solution,” Carlson told USNI News.
Shortly after the sinking, reports emerged that a U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon was in the area before the attack, suggesting that the U.S. may have provided detailed targeting information to the Ukrainians to target the ship.
Carlson said while the U.S. could give Ukrainian forces a general idea of where the ship was, it could not provide necessary tracking information to the Neptunes because P-8s datalinks were incompatible.
“There’s no way the P8 has the ability to send direct data via data link right to the Ukrainians,” he said. “You can’t do it by voice. It’s got to be done through a data link.”
On Thursday, following a Wednesday story from The New York Times on the targeting of Russian general officers, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said the U.S. intelligence sharing with the Ukrainians has limits.
“We do not… participate in the targeting decisions of the Ukrainian military. Ukrainians have quite frankly, a lot more information than we do. This is their country, their territory, and they have capable intelligence collection abilities of their own,” he said. “Ukraine combines information that we and other partners provide with the intelligence that they themselves are gathering on the battlefield and then they make their own decisions, and they take their own actions.”
Not very nice shooting a missile at the Russians when they arent ready.
Rumors of another ship struck by a missile - this time the Admiral Makarov, a relatively-modern frigate.
If true it just goes to show how disastrous the war has been for Russia!
Sure, they may eventually ‘win’ by attrition, but the myth of the ‘strong Russian military’ they have always tried to project is forever tainted.
LOL... Keep looking for used Russian military components on Ebay. You can bet that that soldiers have long since stripped what components they could and sold them on the black market.
The Ruskies started the war. What did they expect? Hands off a mighty ship? All’s fair in love and war it is said.
Absolutely excellent information.
Thank you for posting.
-OGINJ
There was just a post that all their ships are now in port. They are scared to be out on the water.
This is a link to a Danish analyst speaking before the war on what it is the Russians want. They want to be equal to “NATO”. Not to European nations, 30 of which make up NATO. They view NATO as a US proxy, and they want to have their own sphere of influence which is NATO’s eaual. They want to be what they believe the US is, the controller of those thirty NATO countries, only the controller of the Russian version of NATO.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50q3bT87KFc
The link below is a Ukrainian who explains all those weird Nazi accusations. It turns out that Russians don’t mean by Nazi what we might think they mean. For the reasons he states, if anyone disagrees with them, even Jews, then those people are their “Nazis.” There’s a lot of information behind this and it’s worth a listen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4WEBwsuQf0
I know, it’s only proper to call them first.
For what is is worth, I have read that Russian Navy ships habitually lock up everything that is portable, to keep it from being stolen, and sold. Specifically including life vests, and flashlights. Which would help explain the high death toll when their ships go down.
Just wait until a drone attacks the kremlin. It’s looking like Russian radar cannot pickup drones.
That’s the crazy thing DiF! Your scenario CAN happen. Literally anyone with a bit of money and a bit of sense can rig a functional flying-IED that may not do that much damage but will definitely make the nightly news. With a little additional knowhow the functional flying-IED can easily become a proper military-level weapon.
And there’s very little Russia could do to stop that.
I am genuinely surprised there are not a lot of saboteurs wreaking havoc in Moscow and other key locations. Thing is, the world at large has been generally very fortunate that most terrorists (the religious type) are not the smartest bulbs. Whenever some have a person who can plan (eg the architect of the 9/11 attacks) the results tend to be horrible, but fortunately most of them are goat-herders with a religious death wish.
Fortunately, because if they were intelligent there are very many vulnerabilities they could reach out and touch!
What’s unfortunate for Russia is that Ukrainian armed resistance for the most part has proved to be smart. They have made some mistakes here and there, but overall they are quick and sharp.
Sooner or later they may decide to attack Russia proper, and there’s very little Russia can do to stop that. Considering how difficult it is to stop dedicated goat-herders indoctrinated with religious mumbo-jumbo, I can only imagine how hard it would be to stop dedicated clever-fellas on a mission for country.
Inexcusable lack of awareness. Whoever is in charge of the Russian Baltic fleet needs to be brought up on charges and then jailed. Russian military is performing like some third world second rate power.
The Ukraine (and the West) had a lot to do with getting the war started too.
russia is a third world second rate power.
Substitute every instance of Russia with America and Ukraine with any of a dozen powers that hate us and it can be even more true here.
Just a matter of time is all, a couple of wealthy donors and a few semi-bright engineers supplied by Amazon and Ebay, can wreak havoc on us as well far easier than in Russia.
Yeah, Russia is just like the Congo or Central African Republic.
How’s the African space program going?
Did they split the atom yet?
It is the effect of 77 years of either Soviet or Russian developed propaganda. Lot of older generation folks will tell you that watching news is worthless...they pay attention to almost nothing except what goes in their town.
Lot of younger Russian folks get their news now via internet, with some offerings coming from beyond the border. They are less likely to believe the Nazi story.
I won’t vouch that Ukraine is better-off...still a lot of anti-Moscow feelings from the 1930s (all that starvation stuff) that brew up.
True. But even a well armed, modern vessel can be surprised by a land to sea missile, by a swarm of rubber fast boats, or a phony radar signal from an Iranian passenger jet mock.
We didn’t lose the ships in the Persian gulf but did get wake up calls and a bloody nose. A ship has to be at war footing all the time or deception will take it eventually, imho.
See my tagline...
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