Russia showing clear 'casualty aversion', as troops forced to retreat from Kharkiv

The Telegraph ^ | 02-MAY-2022 | Colin Freeman

[SpeedyInTexas]

A Ukrainian counter-offensive pushed Russian forces 25 miles east of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, US officials said on Monday night.

They also said Russian gains in Donbas had been "minimal at best" and "quite frankly anaemic", and Vladimir Putin's troops appeared to be displaying a risk aversion to casualties.

[alexander_busek]

Not sure if its 20k dead Russians. I think its more likely to be 10k.

Don't worry! Be patient!

In ten months, they'll be reporting 100k dead Russian soldiers - and you'll be chiming in that 50k is more likely.

Regards,

[alexander_busek]

With the amount of bombers and artillery Russia has. Im suprised they just havent flattened everything.

Ukraine is about the size of the Great State of Texas.

Let's see anything short of a full-scale, year-long war "flatten" Texas!

Regards,

[alexander_busek]

Now if a couple dozen SU jet fighters get to be flown into service Russian navy will be in trouble.

Russian Navy pulling neat trick of growing smaller every day and hiding on seafloor - makes much harder to find and destroy!

Regards,

[alexander_busek]

Look, some folks haven’t been in the military. They still want to address the possibilities. Just set them straight as you did here. Maybe give them a bit more information [...]

If they are posing sincere questions.

But many posters here asking superficially "innocent" questions appear instead to wish to sow doubt, discord, and defeatism.

"I'm so sorry to hear that your wife is going to be operated on again! I'm surprised that her cancer hasn't already devoured most of her internal organs! It must be agonizing! If it had been me, I would have put a bullet in my head long ago, so as not to burden the family. So, anyway, coming to the next Sunday Morning Parish Breakfast?"

Regards,

[tlozo]

Canadian General Trevor Kadier was arrested while trying to escape from the territory of Azovstal in Mariupol, media and bloggers reported.

Lol, I've seen these bs reports in Russian media for weeks that a US general was caught in Mariupol. Funny the Russians can't seem to post his picture, and his name keeps changing.

[Cathi]

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/retired-canadian-general-under-police-investigation-for-alleged-sexual-misconduct-is-now-in-ukraine

---

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v26zTP3f3v8

---

https://t.me/s/vzglyad_ru/52428

Canadian General Trevor Kadier was arrested while trying to escape from the territory of Azovstal in Mariupol, media and bloggers reported.

According to reports, the general was in charge of biolaboratory No. 1, where 18 people worked with deadly viruses.

Earlier it was reported that Azovstal has a mercenary general who is in touch with Zelensky.

---

Yes, there was a video yesterday of a woman who had been rescued from Azovstal who gave that info on the mercenary general who was always talking to Zelensky.

An additional report on the internet said he had been taken to Moscow.

[Justa]

That’s pretty close. The best estimates imo are from within logistics reports and planning. They have to account for what’s actually in the field and required for operations. Some sources say they’re accounting for 80K casualties (dead, wounded, missing) presently.

[PIF]

A Ukrainian counter-offensive pushed Russian forces 25 miles east of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, US officials said on Monday night.
—

That’s because the Russians withdrew most of its best troops for the Pincer movement at the Izyum salient. What remains are conscripts in 2nd rate units with low morale. They keep counter attacking none-the-less.

[PIF]

War criminals identified: identification data of scouts of the Russian 64th Motorized Rifle Brigade
https://informnapalm.org/en/war-criminals-identified-personal-data-of-scouts-of-the-russian-64th-motorized-rifle-brigade/

[bert]

The aversion to casualties is a function of the number of dead generals and senior officers

The quality of leadership has had to significantly decline as officers are forced into command authority and responsibility.

When a whole theater headquarters was wiped out, it has to make a big difference immediately going forward

[bert]

Now that is a prescient thought. I’ll ruminate on it the rest of the day

[PIF]

That article on War Criminals has individual and group photos, backgrounds, passports, other personal data on 50 of them - and that’s just Part 1. All based on OSINT (Open-source intelligence); some comes from a dropped cell phone one guy lost.

[2ABN321FA]

I was trained in artillery. Back in the late 70’s early 80’s. Even then, once you fired a round, you were subject to radar detection. You would only shoot a couple rounds and then move quickly. Plus we used smaller 105 howitzers and each round still weighed about 80 lbs. Takes a long supply train to keep the ammo moving.

[PIF]

Ukraine: military situation update with maps, May 2, 2022
War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos

**Front line is static

**UA Strategic options:
1 Become 4-5 more efficient - whole system at top has to change - Low

2 Weapons from west over comes Russian weapons advantage - Likely

3 US buying time until West weapons arrive. Needs far more than 90 M-777s. Before war had the UA had 1500 units, but at least 200-400 units lost. Russia has 3000-4000 pieces. UA needs 1000 units to make a quantitive and qualitative advantage, plus the 200-400 units lost.

4. Ukraine has no ammo or shell producing capacity. The West would have to supply several thousand arty units and the several million shells for them to make a real difference.

**UA Failure to have successful offenses:
Killing generals on either side: like troops they are expendable - based on old USSR system. Mediocre quality of top command on both sides is why no real advances on either side: ask no questions, follow orders, follow plans, show no initiative.

**Artillery:
Russian Arty is relatively advanced relative to UA.

1. Orlan-10 Drone not GPA dependent, Flt time is 16 hr, for up to 120-600km, embedded in arty units for fire correction. Fire is exact, precise and destroys UA troops before they get close to Orc lines. System works well and Arty troops well trained on it.

Small RCS. Maybe 3000 units built. Needs imported components. Orcs can’t make more. Uses old software, can only detect large items like tanks, bad at detecting small items like soldiers.

**(Bonus: War criminals identified: identification data of scouts of the Russian 64th Motorized Rifle Brigade, Part 1)
https://informnapalm.org/en/war-criminals-identified-personal-data-of-scouts-of-the-russian-64th-motorized-rifle-brigade/
Open source intel - listing the first 50 of 100 Orcs responsible. Photos and personal data included, group photos. Sources and methodology explained.

Summary:
Key areas:
- Izyum bridgehead - no expansion today.
- Russian troops are slowly mopping up corner between Oskil and Siverskiy Donets rivers controlled by Ukrainian side before.
- Zaporizhya frontline - no changes today.

1. Kharkiv: Static frontline after yesterday’s exchange of attacks.
**No Changes. Very low quality 3rd rate. Good troops moved to Izyum region.
**Orcs: 200th, 2ndsfB, 138th, 59thTRgt/144thD, 92nd, 37th
**UA: 93rd, 17thBt. 92nd, 113th, Irish/Finnish Vol

2. Izyum bridgehead: No major Russian progress today. It is extremely dangerous penetration by Russian troops that potentially could lead to large pocket for Ukrainian troops west of Donetsk.
**No Changes.
**Orc chances going down everyday. But is still focus of Orc efforts.
**Orcs: 12th EngB, 38th, 76thAD, 6thTB/47thTD, 4thTD, 3rdmD, 21st, 106thAD, 39th, 30th, 24sfB
**UA: 81st, 93rd, 25th, 95th, 128th, 3TB, 95th, 57th, 56th, 24th
**UA 128th in danger of being encircled by the Orc 30th and 24thsfB.

3. Lyman bridgehead. No changes today.

4. Popasna, Rubizhne and Severodonetsk. Russian troops captured majority of Rubizhne. Popasna is about 70-80% captured by Russian troops. Russian mercenaries - Wagner Group operates in Popasna, also Russian 57 brigade operates there as well.
**No Changes.
**Severodonetsk, Rubizhne front stable
**Popasna
**Orc have 1/2 in SSE part; UA has north half
**Orcs: 2AK(4th, 7th, ?), 57thD, Wagner Grp
**UA: 57th, 56th, 24th, 30th

5. West of Donetsk: Avidyivka and Maryinka. Avdiyivaka - never ending attempts of the Russian side to break-through there.
**No Changes.
**Orcs: 1stAK(1st, 5th, 100th, 3?, 9?), 4th MC (Military Camp)
**UA: 25th, 79th, 54th, 53rd

6. Vugledar is in Ukrainian hands.

7. (Zaporizhzhia) Velyka Novosilka - Gulyapole stretch of frontline. Ukrainian strongholds are towns of Gulyaypole and village of Velyka Novosilka. Russian 19D is operating there. Russian troops are consolidating their gains. Also, 42D has been spotted in the area. Russian troops caputred village Vremivka attached to Velyka Novosilka from west and separate by small river. The most northern group of Russian troops has been stopped before village of Vilne Pole.
**Orcs: 4thMC, 19thD, 42ndD
**UA: 109th, 53rd, 503rdBt, 128th, 110th, 35thNB, International and Chechen Vols.
**UA 109th and 110th have suffered significant losses; are falling back as Orcs push southern end of Izyum pincer.
**128th was brought back from Izyum region to stop the Orc 19th and 42nd
**Mixed units on both sides means they are both stretched thin.

8. No new attacks on Orikhiv.

9. Mariupol: opportunity to do a breakout attempt by the Ukrainian forces might have been lost as density of Russian troops increased due to smaller perimeter. Based on other sources, opportunity to break out is still viable.

10. Mykolayiv: No major changes. Both sides on defensive.
**Orcs: 10thsfB, 205th, 126th, 7thMC, 7thAD, 20thD
**UA: 59th, 80th, 14th, 60th

[Bruce Campbells Chin]

I'm not talking about flattening the whole country, im talking about the sliver of land in the South and East.

The combined territory of the Luhanks and Donetsk Oblasts is more than three times that of Chechnya. The combined population is more than four times larger.

This whole "flattening" just can't be done absent use of multiple large-yield nuclear weapons. Since that is right on the borders of Russia itself, I don't think the Russians are going to be too inclined to do that.

[Bruce Campbells Chin]

I'm not talking about flattening the whole country, im talking about the sliver of land in the South and East.

The combined territory of the Luhanks and Donetsk Oblasts is more than three times that of Chechnya. The combined population is more than four times larger.

This whole "flattening" just can't be done absent use of multiple large-yield nuclear weapons. Since that is right on the borders of Russia itself, I don't think the Russians are going to be too inclined to do that.

[Bruce Campbells Chin]

No need to dump on them. They are concerned or want to see something done that can’t be done.

Well, that's kind of the point. These are folks either 1) rooting/hoping for Russia to "flatten" Ukraine, or 2) defending Russia as being "merciful" for not flattening Ukraine. And they're doing it by making up false facts about what Russia can actually do. Why? To elevate Russia to a much higher moral pedestal than its brutal invasion deserves.

That's the reason I dump on this making that point. When you're inventing facts to defend something this horrible, you deserve all the dumping you can get.

[DoughtyOne]

Well... I didn’t take the original comment here to be that
way, but it is subjective.

I don’t like the suggestion that they come in and just level
the place.

Every nation his some treasures. There’s a lot of old
architecture in the Ukraine. It shouldn’t be taken out.
These buildings, no matter what they house today, shouldn’t
condemn them to death.

I am reminded of when the Romans went into Egypt and burned
the Library at Alexandria. Civilization lost a wealth of
information on the antiquities from that act.

Wars just suck.

[DoughtyOne]

Thanks for the response. I don’t happen to favor Russian
actions in all this.

I’m not a big fan of Russian lives lost though.

Those who seek total destruction of the other side are
missing the point.

Those troops don’t want to be there. I support people
defending themselves, but I hope fatalities flatten off
on both sides.

I wish a Russian with more of a rational frame of mind
would replace Putin when the time comes.

[gleeaikin]

In addition to the video of the destroyed UKR S-300 batttalion, this video has a follow-on video about foreign volunteers. One is latin American volunteering to serve as a medic, another is a Sami (Lapland) woman serving as a soldier, a third is Colombian with 8 years military service.. Volunteers are paid same as Ukraine soldiers in same rank, and serve until end of war.