Posted on 04/30/2022 10:37:50 AM PDT by Mariner
The war in Ukraine is widening.
With Russia’s advance stalled due to fierce local resistance and Western support, analysts say both sides appear ready to dig in for a protracted conflict that is showing increasing signs of spilling beyond the battlefield.
From warning of nuclear confrontation to stoking energy crises and perhaps even eyeing up fresh territories to invade, Moscow has ramped up its threats this week — but so has the West: The United States and its allies are readying huge new shipments of heavy weapons and military equipment to help Ukrainian troops on the ground, while voicing more ambitious goals for the conflict.
The Kremlin and the West appear to have embraced a broader clash over Ukraine, one that extends far beyond the grounds of the Donbas and could define Europe’s landscape well into the future while increasingly resembling its Cold War past.
U.S. officials say President Joe Biden’s request to Congress to provide $33 billion to Ukraine, which includes $20 billion for military equipment and assistance, would allow Kyiv and its allies to withstand months more Russian aggression.
The request followed remarks by Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin this week that initially caused some disquiet among European allies. Speaking to reporters after a visit to Kyiv, Austin said the U.S. wanted to see Russia “weakened to the extent that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.”
(Excerpt) Read more at yahoo.com ...
1. Whether, and how quickly Russia can interdict arms shipments from NATO.
2. Whether, and how quickly Russia can eliminate Ukrainian combat capability in the east.
3. Whether NATO's core European members maintain support for the US' aggressive policy.
Perhaps I've missed something that somebody else can contribute?
I tried to look at this from two perspectives:
- The supreme NATO commander
- The supreme Russian commander
And assumed unlimited political support back home for both.
If I were the NATO commander, I would continue with very little change. The strategy has proved both low risk and effective.
If I were the Russian commander, I would realize time is not on my side and would up the ante. I would move straight to battlefield nukes against armed men in the field and strategic transportation hubs/targets. I would order my men to kill every man or woman with a weapon, whether a rifle, Javelin or Molotov cocktail.
This conflict has CLEARLY moved from a regional, ethnic dispute to a Strategic Conflict between NATO and Russia.
Russia appears slow to realize this. And it may result in their destruction.
Biden's both indicted by Ukraine's version of a grand jury in 2019 for money laundering under "the perfect phone call", newly elected Zelinski still stands.
The democrat party is dead and disappearing.
Martial Law must be called to suspend the election.
Jesus returns for HIS.
Get saved.
They stole the presidency from Trump and then installed the most incompetent and corrupt band of thieves in his place. They will get a wider with Russia because they want one, they instigated one. The question is why, and for that answer all one has to do is look at the perverted form of government here and in Europe. Degenerates, cross dressers, drug addicts, one worlders, all flying the flag of “democracy.” No thanks.
The NATO mission is explicitly defensive. Would they actually attack Russia without a NATO nation being attacked? If they did, would that justify Putin’s claims that NATO was a threat to Russia all along?
All Russia need do is turn this into trench warfare. Ukraine will run out of men before Russia does. Russia hasn’t been mobilized yet. They need to declare war on Ukraine and list objectives. Then get his spies to start undermining NATO and The USA. 1) release all the files on Hunter Biden’s corruption? How about Hillarie’s? and maybe Trump’s? A few assassinations to blame on BLM or MAGA People? Maybe a new Pandemic>? Give Iran a Nuke or all they need to build one Now. Putin’s KGB—he knows that the poison cup is better than a nuke —in the right place. Claim Ukraine has Nukes and plan to use them on Russia! Lots of things he could do.
“Would they actually attack Russia without a NATO nation being attacked?”
They de facto are attacking Russian military assets in Ukraine, and material assets inside Russia.
> 3. Whether NATO’s core European members maintain support for the US’ aggressive policy. <
I take gentle exception to the wording there. It’s Putin’s policy that is aggressive. It was his army that crossed an international border, and invaded a sovereign country.
That’s not to say that our policy is correct. I’d maybe describe our policy as tone deaf. As side note, this whole mess never would have happened if Trump were still president. Yeah, he was rude, and he sent out mean tweets. But he kept a lid on the situation.
All Russia need do is pull their troops out of Ukraine.
Sure looks that way, doesn’t it.
The Russian ruble is stronger now than 3 months ago.
Russian gas & oil revenue is higher than 3 months ago.
Recession is upon us in America, and I suspect globally.
Our betters love using war in economic downtimes.
“May you live in interesting times.”
Good news for people who bought stock in the military-industrial complex last year.
Why? Israel has so far remained neutral. It's declined Zelensky's request for material aid. It hasn't even joined the West in imposing sanctions on Russia.
Israel did help Zelensky air lift Jews out of Ukraine in the weeks before the war, but that's it.
Why would Putin give nukes to Iran, thus making an enemy of nuclear Israel?
It looks like Putin will move to some kind of full mobilization, but I don't see how he will arm and train the additional troops. He will also begin to run out of precision weaponry, as many of he components needed are sourced from the West. For example, the specialized high-temp and shock electronics in the Iskander have "Made in USA" stamped on them. Those won't be easy to replace from China, either, assuming the Chinese would assist.
Being the attacker, with only a 3.5:1 advantage in population, Putin will lose a war of attrition.
“Escalation to nukes would mean immediate direct NATO involvement.”
I disagree. But even if the odds were 50-50 and I were the Russian commander, that’s the option I would choose.
Because if they lose in Ukraine, in 20 years they will not exist. Maybe less. NATO will not allow it.
Essentially NATO is all in now. The ONLY reason there are not flagged NATO troops involved is their fear of a nuclear war with Russia.
From a pure strategic viewpoint, dragging out Russia’s invasion is the best course of action for Ukraine. Turn this into another Afghanistan / Vietnam.
From the view of Poland and Finland, having Russia deplete it’s military in Ukraine, makes it far less likely of an invasion in their territories. Further, this gives them time to observe the conflict and adjust their defensive armaments/training and gives them time to build up. This is also true for other countries that Russia may have their eyes on.
Putin was reading his own propaganda and miscalculated ... badly.
Use of nuclear weapons would do nothing to promote Russia's territorial integrity and might even push further disintegration. For example, the Kaliningrad oblast has gotten used to fairly free exchange with the EU, and any extreme actions by Russia might cause a new iron curtain to descend permanently. It might also lead to an invasion by NATO. A lot of risk by Russia in doing so, with few positive outcomes: I even doubt Ukraine would surrender, because they would at that point have nothing to lose.
Use of nukes would probably also push Germany and Poland to acquire their own nukes, not exactly a positive outcome for Russia either.
The right measures by the US could have prevented the war to begin with and promoted a permanent negotiated settlement. If we had starting shipping arms quietly to Ukraine and offered Putin a face-saving way out, say by recognition of the annexation of Crimea, in exchange for recognizing Ukraine's new borders and it's fully armed neutrality, Putin might have agreed. Instead, Blinken shot his mouth off about support while not actually doing anything concrete to bolster Ukraine's defenses, providing a perfect combination of provocation and weakness, which is the hallmark of the Obamites in control of State. BTW, right now it looks like DOD is in charge, and since their expertise is war, it's hard to tell what's going to happen. A consequence of the stolen election and the pants crapping sock puppet occasionally in the White House is that the big bureaucracies are on autopilot and do what they want.
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-decapitating-russian-tanks-due-to-design-flaw-2022-4
A lot of misconceptions, sorry. The insurgency they were betting on is not happening, because most people in the “occupied” areas are favoring the pro-Russian administration more.
NATO weapons are nothingburger. How are 200 tanks from Poland going to improve the situation when Ukraine was losing about as many every week? And for Poland it is half of its fleet.
Which is why your officials are threatening nuclear war over weapons delivered to the Ukraine, right Mayór?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.