Posted on 04/27/2022 8:37:02 PM PDT by Cronos
Poland has been preparing to give up Russian gas fuel for a long time, so Gazprom's decision to turn off the tap did not surprise her. Rather, the inevitable has accelerated. Poland's energy security should not be jeopardized, but the gas turmoil may again have an impact on Poles' bills in a few months. The former president of PGNiG draws attention to one important element of the entire gas puzzle.
On Wednesday at 8.00, Gazprom will officially suspend gas supplies to Poland under the Yamal contract . The day before, journalists reported that gas fuel transmission from the east fell to zero. The Ministry of Climate and Environment called an unannounced press conference on Tuesday evening, during which the head of the ministry, Anna Moskwa and Piotr Naimski, assured that Poland was ready to cut off gas supplies via Russia.
We are ready for full independence from Russian raw materials, Minister Anna Moskwa emphasized during the conference.
The Russian company informed PGNiG that the suspension of supplies would take place in accordance with the provisions of the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of March 31, 2022, due to the Polish side rejecting the possibility of making payments in rubles.
According to media reports, Gazprom is also to cut off Bulgaria from its gas from Wednesday. The company's decision may be perversely defined as the imposition of sanctions by the Russian Federation on itself
According to the calculations of the Polish Economic Institute , Russia's revenues from customs and taxes related to natural gas extraction in the first two months of 2022 were the highest in at least four years and amounted to over EUR 5.4 billion. Just as Europe is dependent on gas from Russia, so is Russia dependent on billions of euros from the European Union
Gazprom has accelerated the inevitable
Gazprom's decision only accelerated what was to happen anyway at the end of this year. Poland did not intend to extend the contract with Gazprom for the supply of Russian fuel. Therefore, Polish gas storage facilities are already full in April at an unprecedented level for this month - 76 percent. In other European countries, gas tanks are filled to about 30 percent. Therefore, such a move in relation to other EU countries would be much more dangerous from the point of view of energy security.
Energy expert and journalist Jakub Wiech believes that Poland is able to cope without gas supplies under the Yamal contract. Especially since there have been cases where Gazprom "turned off the gas tap" before, and not in such a distant past.
We are ready to suspend gas supplies from Russia. We have our own gas extraction capabilities, we have the possibility of receiving LNG through the terminal in Świnoujście, we have interconnectors and almost full warehouses. Gazprom has already suspended gas supplies to Poland in the past. Such situations took place, for example, during the NATO summit in Poland and the visit of Donald Trump, but they were short-lived. However, now, judging by the letter sent by Gazprom, you have to take into account a longer break - says money.pl Jakub Wiech.
The stored gas fuel gives Poland the time needed to complete investments such as the construction of the Baltic Pipe gas pipeline , which will be delivered to the Vistula with gas from Norway. From May, the possibility of deliveries through the gas pipeline connecting Poland and Lithuania, to which gas is delivered via a floating LNG terminal, will start.
Additionally, Poland can buy gas in reverse from Germany and obtain it on European markets. Of course, it is not certain that gas supplies from Russia in the coming months will not be realized again until the end of the contract, which expires at the end of the year. Piotr Naimski, the government plenipotentiary for strategic energy infrastructure, emphasized during the conference that all Polish gas needs can be met from other
" Perhaps this is the end of gas supplies to Poland from Gazprom. If the attitude of the Russians does not change, i.e. if their demands for payment in rubles do not cease, and if there are no extraordinary circumstances on the Polish side, April 26, 2022 may go down in history as the end of the Yamal contracts, concludes Jakub Wiech. "
Former president of PGNiG, Grażyna Piotrowska-Oliwa, is of the opinion that we will have enough gas supplies until at least summer, of course if Poland only uses this source. Although, as Anna Moscow announced during the conference, there are no such plans at the moment.
- It all depends on how long it will take. Official data show that the warehouses, with a capacity of 2.85 billion cubic meters, are approximately 80 percent full. - points out the interlocutor of money.pl.
If it is not possible to obtain gas from other sources, these reserves should last for about two months. Out of four if we diversified our consumption with other sources, such as a gas terminal. Half of the gas supplied to the Polish market is Russian gas purchased under the Yamal contract, says Grażyna Piotrowska-Oliwa
However, there is a danger. It is still uncertain how many other countries Russia will cut off gas in the near future. It is not only Poland that has decided not to pay for gas in rubles. More recently , the European Commission stressed that such payments will be a collapse of sanctions .
If the Kremlin cut off half of Europe from its gas, the demand for the raw material purchased on the stock exchange would increase. In a situation of strong demand, prices may soar. We saw a similar situation last year, when gas prices - due to Moscow's policy - increased significantly.
It is a fact that gas fuel prices react quickly to this changing situation. It was already visible on Tuesday, when information on the potential cut-off of Poland from supplies affected the prices on the Dutch stock exchange.
The problem is completely different. We will use gas purchased on an ongoing basis. In a situation where gas is turned off not only in Poland, the prices of gas available on exchanges will immediately increase. Unlike oil, you cannot increase your daily output quickly. It does not work like that. The warehouses are there to be filled in summer, when gas is cheaper, and to be able to use them in winter, in the season of the highest demand, sums up Grażyna Piotrowska-Oliwa.
In the case of individual customers in Poland, high gas purchase prices are buffered by tariffs regulated by the President of the ERO. However, gas prices for entrepreneurs and industry were freed up a few years ago. Therefore, in their case, high gas prices on commodity exchanges are basically one-to-one.
In the fall and winter, gas prices for entrepreneurs rose by several hundred percent in some cases. The situation may repeat itself this year. The more so as we are ready to be cut off from Russian gas, but just like our warehouses - not 100 percent.
Piotr Naimski said during the conference that "perturbations" on the gas market may last about two years.
- This market will stabilize when European customers will be able to deliver to Europe from outside Russia the amounts of gas that are currently sent by Russia. It is a matter of using fully gas terminals in Western Europe, adding certain elements of gas pipelines so that all of this could reach the recipients and it will take some time, probably around two years - said Naimski
My understanding: Consequences of economic sanctions as of 27.04.2022
-The head of the Russian Chamber of Accounts reported that the decline of the Russian economy in 2022, according to preliminary estimates of the Ministry of Economic Development, is 8.8%.
-Annual inflation in Russia accelerated to 17.7%, in 2022 according to the basic forecast it will be 20.7%, in 2023 - over 6%.
-The real available revenues of Russians in the 1st quarter decreased by 1.2% in the annual expression.
-Due to the gap of inflation in March in Russia znizilisâ and real pensions (minus 8.3%).
-The cost of basic building materials in the Russian Federation has increased by 15-30% over the last month, said the president of the National Association of Builders (NOSTROY), which officially participates in monitoring the prices of construction resources.
-About 80 enterprises in St. Petersburg closed on the plain.
-Due to sanctions in 2022 Russia will reduce oil production by 17% - from 524 million tons to 434 million tons.
-Russia has been excluded from the World Tourism Organization.
GENNADY TIMCHENKO
The US sanctions Gennady Timchenko’s wife and two daughters, making him the wealthiest Russian oligarch with relatives targeted by restrictions
-https://news.yahoo.com/us-sanctions-gennady-timchenkos-wife-131025451.html
-Putin ally Timchenko resigns from Novatek board
https://www.reuters.com/business/putin-ally-timchenko-resigns-novatek-board-2022-03-21/
-Finland confiscated the property of the Russian oligarch. Gennadíâ Tymchenko:
https://yle.fi/news/3-12420021
Note - those Cossacks of the Zaporozhia, in Repnins famous painting, were Ukrainians. And free men.
There were other Cossack hordes later and further and further east, but those were all in service to the Tsar, unlike those original guys on the Dneipr, free from all masters, Tsar or King or Sultan.
Have you even read the article before commenting?
Poland had a plan from 2020 after the last time Russia switched off the gas
Now it has a number of planS in place
1. It has reserves of up to 2 months. It’s heading to summer now
2. Its pipeline importing gas from Norway is due yo come online in summer
3. It terminated its contract with Russia last year, with imports die yo have ended at the end of 2022. This just pushes the timelines earlier.
4. It has opened ports in the past few years to import gas from the USA etc
This is going yo hurt, no doubt, but to say “no plan” is what you would write only if you didn’t read the article you are commenting on.
Not sure about that,
as his mentor said, “The worse the better.”
Read an article or viewed a video that talked about the Ruble.
On the surface the Ruble did rebound. The problem is what Russia had to do to get that rebound. It bumped up interest rates to 17%. It sold gas at discounts.
It pulled a few other things that helped with the rate also, but it is considerably
negative for the country.
On the surface Russia doesn’t look too bad, but the situation is not good at
at all, all things considered.
Poland isn’t suicidal and maintains coal power plants and coal mining. The idiot Germans will freeze.
Everyone can agree Ivan can be brutal.
No one ever said he was particularly bright however.
“Putin’s regime imposed a clampdown, preventing the purchase or sale of foreign currency. “
I asked you many times where did you get this idea? You never answered. Why? Why are you knowingly lying?
Two weeks after the invasion, they voted to continue with the shutdown of their last 3 plants this year. Idiots.
I thought it was a knee jerk reaction, but now wonder about East German Angela Merkel’s role.
She is probably in line for a sweetheart deal with Gazprom like her predecessor, Gerhard Schröder. That's why she was so angry at Trump.
I wonder what that message is? Is it from the Russian ambassador repudiating Putin?
Ivan, the only ones lying are in Moscow.
Russians will be fined and imprisoned for buying and selling foreign currency “from hand” – The Moscow Times
The Russian authorities have decided to tighten control over the foreign currency cash market, which is rapidly going “into the shadows” after the Central Bank of the Russian Federation banned the sale of dollars and euros to individuals through bank cash desks and “exchangers”,
No idea. The Russians seem to mess up their messaging a lot, which makes it hard to figure their intentions.
That was a temporal solution due to additional prohibitive fee on dollar and euro purchases to prevent panic buys and bank exchange.
Lifted on April 18 and now you can buy and sell at every bank without any fee now.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/germany-says-meeting-now-eu-091910687.html
Germany said its companies will continue to pay for Russian gas in euros or dollars, hours after European Union partners Poland and Bulgaria were cut off by Gazprom PJSC for refusing to pay in rubles as President Vladimir Putin has demanded.
Were they going to Russia?
“That was a temporal solution”
Did Q get involved again?
Btw, “The central bank said banks will be allowed to sell cash foreign currency to individuals from April 18 but only the notes they have received no earlier than on April 9”
That’s for banks, not individuals
Poland’s steps to cut off Russia
2008: start the engineering process to build a 5 bcm LNG import terminal (roughly 1 tanker per week)
2010: Sign (renew) a 8.7 bcm/yr take or pay contract with Russia that goes through the end of 2022. Russia committed to 11 bcm for 2012–2022.
2011: start the construction of the 5 bcm terminal
2012: begin discussions to build a natural gas pipeline north/south from the Polish LNG terminal on the north to a Croatian LNG terminal on the south.
2015: accept first load of LNG at the 5 bcm import terminal
2017: sign contracts for building pipelines within Poland to allow imported and regas’ed LNG to be pushed across the country. Many critical pipelines to be completed by no later than the end of 2022.
2018: sign the first of several LNG long term import contracts. This one is with Cheniere for 2 bcm/yr from 2023 to 2042 (20 years). Cheniere has already built the LNG manufacturing plant required for their end of this contract.
2019: After more than a decade of on and off progress on the “Baltic Pipeline”, begin actual construction of a 10 bcm pipeline from Norway to Denmark and Poland. That is, Norway is in the middle of the pipeline and can pump 10 bcm to Denmark and another 10 bcm to Poland.
2020: sign contract for expansion of the 5 bcm LNG import terminal to a 7.5 bcm LNG import terminal
2022: complete expansion of the 5 bcm LNG import terminal to a 7.5 bcm
Oct 2022: Begin operation of the Baltic Pipeline so Poland can import up to 10 bcm/yr of gas from Norway.
Thus, by fall 2022 Poland should be able to fully replace the 11 bcm/yr of gas it has recently been importing from Russia. 7.5 bcm might come in via LNG and up to 10 bcm can come from Norway.
Don’t you contradict yourself? They are indeed selling cash to individuals.
OBOZREVATEL article posted supports this post:
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4058540/posts
TITLE: Putin again miscalculated: Russia is doomed, gas in the EU will not be able to sell
“For years, Russia has instilled the idea that Ukraine is an unreliable gas transit country, offering low prices to those countries that supported its policies. And on the eve of a large-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russians staged an energy crisis: they stopped selling blue fuel on the free market and fulfilled only long-term contracts.
Now they’re breaking them, too. In Poland, for example, the contract is signed until the end of 2022. And you need to pay for gas according to it in dollars. The poles transferred money, but not in rubles, but in the currency that is provided for in the signed documents. Russia refused to accept such payment and turned off gas. Early May is the payment time for most EU countries. Presumably, the main part of them will refuse to pay for gas in rubles and will also be left without Russian blue fuel.
“This is extremism and quackery on the part of Gazprom. The aggressor is once again trying to disrupt preparations for the heating season in Europe and provoke a price rally. In the EU, these actions should be considered as another element of hybrid warfare,” said Maxim Belyavsky, an energy expert at the Razumkov Center and ex – director for integrated communications at NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine..”
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