Posted on 04/08/2022 6:08:30 AM PDT by Republicans 2016 2020
Democrats hold a large majority in the New York State Assembly. The party controls 106 seats, alongside 42 Republicans and one Independence Party member.
Members serve two-year terms. The next regularly scheduled elections will be in November. These will be contested using redistricted boundaries. Note that these new districts are being challenged in court. A judge ruled the maps unconstitutional on March 31. That decision has been stayed by a higher court while the appeal proceeds.
District 20 borders the New York City borough of Queens in southwestern Long Island. Republican Melissa Miller resigned in February after being appointed to the Hempstead town board. She won her third term by 59% to 41% in 2020.
(Excerpt) Read more at 270towin.com ...
It’s New York, not America
Queens and LI have lots of Republicans.
NY Times is ignoring the results. So is WABC, WNBC, WCBS.
There may be small swings from time to time but New York will always be Democrat.
District was won by GOP by close to 60% last time..
Should be an easy hold... and looks like it will be.
Nothing much to report... state house special election, that is expected to be won big by one party and is being won big by one party... will be a footnote in the news cycle at best... same would be true if this was a D district expecting a D hold... Things like this are not major news anywhere... footnote or brief mentions at best, particularly in broadcast news.
Now if it had flipped, or the part not expected to win makes it close, then it will generally get some attention.. but a special election in a district that isn’t really competitive, is a non starter for most broadcast newsrooms, particularly in larger metro markets.
With friends like you who needs enemies?
No it won’t always be. Unless we take our marbles and go home
GOP ran up the score by 6% since 2020.
Still not anything noteworthy in terms of general press... regardless if this had been a solid D district and they held it by an additional 6 percent, local broadcast news isn’t going to spend time on it...
Punditry will, but not your local broadcast news... its a footnote if anything on their nightly show.
I’m sorry if reality offends you.
The New York State congressional delegation has a total of 27 members. Just 8 are Republicans. Their senators, governor and the NY city mayor are all Democrats.
I would be interested in knowing how and when you think the Republicans will wrest back control from the Democrats in New York?
There’s a reason Hillary Clinton resides in New York. Do you think she would ever live in a state that could turn red?
Reality can be what you make it.
To concede permanent defeat is not helpful. You only really lose when you give up.
To concede permanent defeat is not helpful. You only really lose when you give up.
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I appreciate what you’re saying. Success is often (but not always) the result of persistence and its certainly hard to achieve anything that without that. So your point is well taken.
But there’s always a caveat to everything. Some things just are what they are so why repeatedly try to push the bolder up the hill? There are things in life we all recognize as “lost causes”, low payoff projects or outright “money pits” that are not worth our time and effort.
There are places in this country with a combination of deeply ingrained social and political conditions that are simply not worth trying to reform. Many of us would never live in those places even if we could because they are basically incorrigible.
If you doubt this ask yourself why you live where you live. Chances are you believe it has some desirable and enduring characteristics that keep you there. Conversely, there are probably places in your state/region that you would never consider living in. And I don’t think I have to ask why.
Saying “Reality can be what you make it” is a nice sentiment but its better to put your limited time and resources into endeavors with a higher probability of success than it is to keep pushing the bolder up hill.
Again, I must ask how and when you think the Republicans will wrest back control from the Democrats in New York, especially given the realities of profoundly changing demographics and cultural influences?
There are strategic retreats. There are defeats. There is reality.
There are way too many variables in New York for me to say “precisely this way and that way. The Republicans will control New York by 2050.”
But I know that we will never take it if we decide we never can.
I am a believer in the grassroots method. You build up your county parties with solid committeemen. You work. You organize. You recruit and develop precinct captains. You take advantage of all communication methods. You get out the vote. You recruit and run good candidates. It is just a lot of consistent work.
I am a believer in the grassroots method. You build up your county parties with solid committeemen. You work. You organize. You recruit and develop precinct captains. You take advantage of all communication methods. You get out the vote. You recruit and run good candidates. It is just a lot of consistent work.
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You obviously know what you’re doing and I say that with sincere respect. You are willing to play the long game and understand what it takes to win.
And I concede that even in the absence of control there are tangential benefits to winning seats. That said, I tend to look at things from a cost/benefit perspective and believe that you have to pick and choose your battles. Some battles are too costly to fight and the odds of positive payoff small. Just my opinion.
In business there is a concept called Net Present Value. If the end result of the calculation turns out to be negative the project is not worth undertaking. So I look at the problem in a different way than you do, but hey that’s what makes the world go around. ;)
I grew up in a blue state that was once a nice place to live but in recent decades has progressively deteriorated into a blue hell. The Democrats have a permanent lock on the state house. Some states just seem to love the concepts of dependence and socialism more than they do of freedom and capitalism. Its extremely hard to reverse that destructive “ethos” once it sets in. Its blue now and will be blue for a long time to come.
I think you would agree that changing that kind of mindset nowadays is an enormous challenge. So much so that I see the country becoming sharply balkanized in the coming years. In fact, its already happening to a degree.
Thank you.
I will agree that we must pick and choose our battles. We can’t do it all everywhere all at once.
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