Posted on 04/01/2022 3:24:52 AM PDT by GonzoII
Germany is experiencing the highest level of inflation since the country was reunified in 1990 after the fall of the Berlin Wall and economic growth projections have been cut in half amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.
On Thursday, Germany’s federal statistics agency Destatis revealed that inflation has risen by 7.3 per cent over this time last year, up from 5.1 per cent in February.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
It would not be suicide, it would be belt tightening - but to a degree this generation has not seen before.
And its not something that I am proposing, it is based on what Putin does.
He is using the natural gas supply as a political weapon to bully and control Germany, as he has done many times before further East. If they acquiesce, he captures more resources with which to bully them, adds more population to his Armies, and marches closer to their border. He has previously publicly expressed his view that Poland is also not a legitimate country, but should be part of Russia.
Pay now, or pay later, or both - but pay they must. The beast they fed has grown beyond control. The Russian threat is no longer theoretical. Putin is spilling rivers of blood, and declaring an end to the rules based order of maintaining peace.
It is a new era of naked conflict for the Europeans. They are going to have to steel themselves for the hardships involved.
+1
Putin sees weakness—and he is making his move.
That is how power politics has worked since homo sapiens were living in caves and throwing wooden sticks at each other.
If Germany was smart (which they used to be, but are not any more) they would shut the f*&^ up, take their punishment and buy the Russian energy, and then quietly develop and implement a long term plan for energy independence.
Loud virtue signaling while you are weak is a really bad strategy.
“Russia always retains the ability to switch the gas off.”
Paying a premium for their gas in the future is the insurance cost against that, that Germany will have to pay.
In the long run, its a commodity, and prices will level out, after the infrastructure is built to allow diversified replacements.
Russia is now proven to be an unreliable and dangerous supplier to depend upon.
Germany’s neighbors should ramp up their electrical generation and LNG infrastructure as well, because Germany’s painful transition is a market opportunity for them as well. Its an historic opportunity to take Russia’s market share.
“Russia is now proven to be an unreliable and dangerous supplier to depend upon.”
Every foreign country is potentially an “unreliable and dangerous supplier”.
That is why energy independence for any major country is a necessity, not a luxury.
That’s not tightening the belt, but depression and losing the competitive edge to Asia FOREVER.
All self-imposed over a nothingburger.
Russia is perfectly reliable. You just can’t expect robbing someone and keep getting free stuff from this person.
“If Germany was smart (which they used to be, but are not any more) they would shut up, take their punishment and buy the Russian energy, and then quietly develop and implement a long term plan for energy independence.”
That is kind of what must happen, except that German politicians want the fig leaf of public pronouncements of moral posturing, while their payments are processed. They are already moving to restart coal-fired electrical generation (near term), and expand LNG infrastructure (mid/long term). They recently signed a new LNG supply contract with the United States.
The radical threat postulated by Russian propagandist Norse Viking, to raise gas prices tenfold (or to suddenly cut off supply), would certainly hurt Germany economically a great deal. But the EU would print euros, the alternative infrastructure would be built in record speed, and the enmity of Germans against Russia would be transformative.
At a minimum, they (Germany alone, with a much larger GDP than Russia) could fund and equip an endless war in the Ukraine at a reasonably high rate of intensity - which is already starting to spill over the border into strikes inside Russia.
No free lunch for Putin. If Putin wants to lash out with such more destructive strikes against other Countries, his Country will have to endure much more damaging return strikes.
The existing sanctions (and probably more coming) are a result of his invasion of the Ukraine). Deliberately sabotaging Germany’s economy will rightfully earn him new punishments.
How is this playing in Freundlich Deutschland?
I think where we differ is you overestimate the intelligence of Western Europe/Germany and underestimate the intelligence of Putin and Russia.
The Greenies and left have a lot of power in Western Europe—and they are not going away quietly.
Some have claimed that Putin is secretly funding and supporting the Greenies—that would not surprise me in any way.
The moral posturing by the West is an attempt to hide this weakness.
It only fools the gullible—Putin is not fooled for one moment.
I agree with you that the Greens/Reds/Left have a lot of power in Germany and Europe.
I’d expect them to take a big political hit in coming elections, if Putin dared to cut off the gas, and crash their economy. They already have a domestic political problem on their hands from the situation, without that extreme.
I do think that the Green movement has long been nurtured by the KGB/FSB, for just this kind of energy weapon moment.
2021 US GDP = $ 22.9 trillion
2021 EU GDP = $ 17.1 trillion (Does not include UK @ $ 3.1 trillion)
2021 Russia GDP = $1.7 trillion
Examination of ready assets and investments is also useful.
If the West is willing to endure some turbulence, no question who has the upper hand.
“If the West is willing to endure some turbulence, no question who has the upper hand.”
A lot more middle class Russians will be pushed under the poverty line because of Putin’s mismanagement and greed - on track for tens of millions over the next year or two.
The next time oil prices fall, Russia will have much less buffer from long term contracts. Then it is “Katie bar the door” for them, if it is a sharp drop.
Much more so than most countries, Russia is essentially a one crop economy, if you lump all hydrocarbons together (oil, gas, coal; but mainly oil and gas). They are on track for predictable train wrecks in the near, mid and long term; but a price crash is more of a wild card in terms of timing.
“They need to put those green clowns on pitchforks.”
I noted the same a few days ago. Which was that when the NEW (as in really new) World Order is figured out 3 years from now, the vast majority of Europeans will be THANKING Putin for giving them the necessary backbone needed to stand up to Greta and her Greens.
You are underestimating the Euro idiocy.
“You are underestimating the Euro idiocy.”
Come to think of it, you’re probably right. They marched right into this new-age energy quicksand, after all.
All that needs to be one is swap the definitions of “inflation” and “growth.” High inflation will be known as high growth, and low growth will be known as low inflation.
The problem is solved.
Unlikely. China is becoming an increasingly unreliable supplier. I have quite a bit of experience with this from both OEM and brand name product angles, but, most here likely identify better from a retail consumer viewpoint: It was bad enough when 90% of China's "stuff" just broke or failed too easily. Well, that was often accepted because said "stuff" was quick and cheap to repurchase. Now they might have that crap quality down to 75%, but, at a significantly higher price and with increasingly erratic deliveries. SOME of this is on our end (trucker shortage, etc.), but lots of it is not. For example, repeatedly there have been problems with pallet, crate, and container shortages, in China. Now, how can the greatest industrialized country in the world have freaking repeated container shortages?
The answer is that China is veering away from the model of gov't supported entrepreneurship plus political control & corruption, to little change in the corruption, but increasing gov't control of, well, most everything, often in knee jerk fashion. We see in this vein their over the top reaction to Omicron COVID, when most governments have finally had the sense to (mostly) ease restrictions.
This in addition to the effect a European depression will have on China. Both face serious challenges in the short term, but the long term challenges for China will prove to be greater,
We shall see.
Wrong on every point.
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