Posted on 03/23/2022 6:34:27 PM PDT by delta7
Question 1– Can you explain to me why you think Russia is winning the war in Ukraine?
Larry C. Johnson– Within the first 24 hours of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, all Ukrainian Ground Radar Intercept capabilities were wiped out. Without those radars, the Ukrainian Air Force lost its ability to do air to air intercept. In the intervening three weeks, Russia has established a de facto No Fly Zone over Ukraine. While still vulnerable to shoulder fired Surface to Air Missiles supplied by the U.S. and NATO to the Ukrainians, there is no evidence that Russia has had to curtail Combat Air Operations.
Russia’s arrival in Kiev within three days of the invasion also caught my attention. I recalled that the Nazi’s in Operation Barbarossa took seven weeks to reach Kiev and the required 7 more weeks to subdue the city. The Nazis had the advantage of not pulling punches to avoid civilian casualties and were eager to destroy critical infrastructure. Yet many so-called American military experts claimed that Russia was bogged down. When a 24 mile (or 40 mile, depends on the news source) was positioned north of Kiev for more than a week, it was clear that Ukraine’s ability to launch significant military operations had been eliminated. If their artillery was intact, then that column was easy pickings for massive destruction. That did not happen. Alternatively, if the Ukrainian’s had a viable fixed wing or rotary wing capability they should have destroyed that column from the air. That did not happen. Or, if they had a viable cruise missile capability they should have rained down hell on the supposedly stalled Russian column. That did not happen. The Ukrainians did not even mount a significant infantry ambush of the column with their newly supplied U.S. Javelins.
The scale and scope of the Russian attack is remarkable. They captured territory in three weeks that is larger than the land mass of the United Kingdom. They then proceeded to carry out targeted attacks on key cities and military installations. We have not seen a single instance of a Ukrainian regiment or brigade size unit attacking and defeating a comparable Russian unit. Instead, the Russians have split the Ukrainian Army into fragments and cut their lines of communication. The Russians are consolidating their control of Mariupol and have secured all approaches on the Black Sea. Ukraine is now cut off in the South and the North.
I would note that the U.S. had a tougher time capturing this much territory in Iraq in 2003 while fighting against a far inferior, less capable military force. If anything, this Russian operation should scare the hell out of U.S. military and political leaders.
The really big news came this week with the Russian missile strikes on what are de facto NATO bases in Yavoriv and Zhytomyr. NATO conducted cyber security training at Zhytomyr in September 2018 and described Ukraine as a “NATO partner.” Zhytomyr was destroyed with hypersonic missiles on Saturday. Yavoriv suffered a similar fate last Sunday. It was the primary training and logistics center that NATO and EUCOM used to supply fighters and weapons to Ukraine. A large number of the military and civilian personnel at that base became casualties.
Not only is Russia striking and destroying bases used by NATO regularly since 2015, but there was no air raid warning and there was no shutdown of the attacking missiles.
Question 2– Why is the media trying to convince the Ukrainian people that they can prevail in their war against Russia? If what you say is correct, then all the civilians that are being sent to fight the Russian army, are dying in a war they can’t win. I don’t understand why the media would want to mislead people on something so serious. What are your thoughts on the matter?
Larry C. Johnson– This is a combination of ignorance and laziness. Rather than do real reporting, the vast majority of the media (print and electronic) as well as Big Tech are supporting a massive propaganda campaign. I remember when George W. Bush was Hitler. I remember when Donald Trump was Hitler. And now we have a new Hitler, Vladimir Putin. This is a tired, failed playbook. Anyone who dares to raise legitimate questions about is immediately tarred as a Putin puppet or a Russia stooge. When you cannot argue facts the only recourse is name calling.
Question 3– Last week, Colonel Douglas MacGregor was a guest on the Tucker Carlson Show. His views on the war are strikingly similar to your own. Here’s what he said in the interview:
“The war is really over for the Ukrainians. They have been ground into bits, there is no question about that despite what we hear from our mainstream media. So, the real question for us at this stage is, Tucker, are we going to live with the Russian people and their government or we going to continue to pursue this sort of regime change dressed up as a Ukrainian war? Are we going to stop using Ukraine as a battering ram against Moscow, which is effectively what we’ve done.” (Tucker Carlson– MacGregor Interview) Do you agree with MacGregor that the real purpose of goading Russia into a war in Ukraine was “regime change”?
Second, do you agree that Ukraine is being used as a staging ground for the US to carry out a proxy-war on Russia?
Larry C. Johnson– Doug is great analyst but I disagree with him—I don’t think there is anyone in the Biden Administration that is smart enough to think and plan in those strategic terms. In my view the last 7 years have been the inertia of the NATO status quo. What I mean by that is that NATO and Washington, believed they could continue to creep east on Russia’s borders without provoking a reaction. NATO and EUCOM regularly carried out exercises—including providing “offensive” training—and supplied equipment. I believe reports in the United States that the CIA was providing paramilitary training to Ukrainian units operating in the Donbass are credible. But I have trouble believing that after our debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan, we suddenly have Sun Tzu level strategists pulling the strings in Washington.
There is an air of desperation in Washington. Besides trying ban all things Russian, the Biden Administration is trying to bully China, India and Saudi Arabia. I do not see any of those countries falling into line. I believe the Biden crew made a fatal mistake by trying to demonize all things and all people Russian. If anything, this is uniting the Russian people behind Putin and they are ready to dig in for a long struggle.
I am shocked at the miscalculation in thinking economic sanctions on Russia would bring them to their knees. The opposite is true. Russia is self-sufficient and is not dependent on imports. Its exports are critical to the economic well-being of the West. If they withhold wheat, potash, gas, oil, palladium, finished nickel and other key minerals from the West, the European and U.S. economies will be savaged. And this attempt to coerce Russia with sanctions has now made it very likely that the U.S. dollar’s role as the international reserve currency will show up in the dustbin of history.
Question 4– Ever since he delivered his famous speech in Munich in 2007, Putin has been complaining about the “architecture of global security”. In Ukraine we can see how these nagging security issues can evolve into a full-blown war. As you know, in December Putin made a number of demands related to Russian security, but the Biden administration shrugged them off and never responded. Putin wanted written assurances that NATO expansion would not include Ukraine (membership) and that nuclear missile systems would not be deployed to Romania or Poland. Do you think Putin’s demands are unreasonable?
Larry C. Johnson– I think Putin’s demands are quite reasonable. The problem is that 99% of Americans have no idea of the kind of military provocation that NATO and the U.S. have carried out over the last 7 years. The public was always told the military exercises were “defensive.” That simply is not true. Now we have news that DTRA was funding biolabs in Ukraine. I guess Putin could agree to allow U.S. nuclear missile systems in Poland and Romania if Biden agrees to allow comparable Russian systems to be deployed in Cuba, Venezuela and Mexico. When we look at it in those terms we can begin to understand that Putin’s demands are not crazy nor unreasonable.
Question 5– Russian media reports that Russian “high precision, air-launched” missiles struck a facility in west Ukraine “killing more than 100 local troops and foreign mercenaries.” Apparently, the Special Operations training center was located near the town of Ovruch which is just 15 miles from the Polish border. What can you tell us about this incident? Was Russia trying to send a message to NATO?
Larry C. Johnson– Short answer—YES! Russian military strikes in Western Ukraine during the past week have shocked and alarmed NATO officials. The first blow came on Sunday, March 13 at Yavoriv, Ukraine. Russia hit the base with several missiles, some reportedly hypersonic. Over 200 personnel were killed, which included American and British military and intelligence personnel, and hundreds more wounded. Many suffered catastrophic wounds, such as amputations, and are in hospital. Yet, NATO and the western media have shown little interest in reporting on this disaster.
Yavoriv was an important forward base for NATO (see here). Until February (prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine), the U.S. 7th Army Training Command was operating from Yavoriv as late as mid-February. Russia has not stopped there. ASB Military news reports Russia hit another site, Delyatyn, which is 60 miles southeast of Yavoriv (on Thursday I believe). Yesterday, Russia hit Zytomyr, another site where NATO previously had a presence. Putin has sent a very clear message—NATO forces in Ukraine will be viewed and treated as combatants. Period.
Question 6– Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been lionized in the western media as a “wartime leader” and a modern-day “Winston Churchill”. What the media fails to tell its readers is that Zelensky has taken a number of steps to strengthen his grip on power while damaging fragile democratic institutions in Ukraine. For example, Zelensky has “banned eleven opposition-owned news organizations” and tried to bar the head of Ukraine’s largest opposition party, Viktor Medvedchuk, from running for office on a bogus “terrorist financing” charge. This is not the behavior of a leader that is seriously committed to democracy.
What’s your take on Zelensky? Is he really the “patriotic leader” the media makes him out to be?
Larry C. Johnson– Zelensky is a comedian and an actor. Not a very good one at that in my view. The West is cynically using the fact he is Jewish as a diversion from the size-able contingent of Neo-Nazis (and I mean genuine Nazis who still celebrate the Ukrainian Waffen SS unit’s accomplishments while fighting with the Nazis in WW II). The facts are clear—he is banning opposition political parties and shutting down opposition media. I guess that is the new definition of “democracy.”
Question 7– How does this end? There’s an excellent post at the Moon of Alabama site titled “What Will Be The Geographic End State Of The War In Ukraine“. The author of the post, Bernard, seems to think that Ukraine will eventually be partitioned along the Dnieper River “and south along the coast that holds a majority ethnic Russian population.” He also says this:
“This would eliminate Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and create a land bridge towards the Moldavian breakaway Transnistria which is under Russian protection. The rest of the Ukraine would be a land confined, mostly agricultural state, disarmed and too poor to be build up to a new threat to Russia anytime soon. Politically it would be dominated by fascists from Galicia which would then become a major problem for the European Union.” What do you think? Will Putin impose his own territorial settlement on Ukraine in order to reinforce Russian security and bring the hostilities to an end or is a different scenario more likely?
Larry C. Johnson– I agree with Moon. Putin’s primary objective is to secure Russia from foreign threats and effect a divorce with the West. Russia has the physical resources to be an independent sovereign and is in the process of making that vision come true.
ALLEGED PUTIN’S PLAN TO CREATE UKRAINE PUPPET STATE:
Plan of Action for the establishment of a control system over the economic and political processes in Ukraine
BANKING SYSTEM
1. Establishing control over the National Bank of Ukraine and suspending operations on money withdrawal, imposition of currency control.
2. Establishing external monitoring over commercial banks to prevent asset embezzlement and transfer of depositors’ funds abroad.
3. Safeguarding banks’ storage facilities in order to prevent looting cases.
4. Connecting banks to the Russian inter-bank data exchange, payments and settlements.
5. Introduction of 100 per cent repatriation and compulsory sale of foreign exchange earnings of exporters to the National Bank.
6. Termination of currency exchange operations (excluding payments for received import), freezing of all foreign currency deposits.
7. Introduction of bank holidays in order to prevent withdrawal of assets.
8. Introduction of a moratorium on: servicing and repayment of foreign loans, transfer of profits from enterprises and property income abroad, export of capital.
9. Introduction of external management in banks that stop servicing the population and issuing deposits.
10. Introduction of temporary moratorium on currency exchange operations, except for the current trading operations of legal entities.
TRANSPORT
1. Renewal of railway communication between Ukrainian cities and Russia.
2. Establishing control over air navigation and organize a Russian-Ukrainian airline for regular air traffic.
3. Port nationalization.
4. Ensuring smooth operation of railway transport.
ENERGY
1. Establish control over nuclear power plants, restore normal operation on Russian fuel elements.
2. Nationalization of electric grids and strategic electricity generation facilities: hydroelectric power stations, large thermal power stations.
3. Establishing control over the natural gas transmission system of Ukraine.
TRADE, LOGISTICS, INDUSTRIAL AGRICULTURE
1. Safeguarding large trading hubs / shopping centers, food bases, grain storages; nationalization of the latter.
2. Introduction of a temporary card system for the distribution of basic food supplies among the population in need, with the establishment of pools of interested producers.
3. Ensuring oil and fuel, fertilizers, seeds for the planting season.
4. Temporary freezing of prices on basic agricultural goods and food commodities.
SOCIAL SPHERE
1. Freezing tariffs on housing and communal services.
2. Ensuring the normal functioning of public transport.
3. Denazification of the education system:
– the removal and destruction of all educational literature distorting history, promoting Nazism and Russophobia;
– restoration of compulsory Russian language and literature classes in schools;
– organization of training courses for secondary-school and high-school teachers in humanitarian disciplines (those who refuse to do so are to be discharged);
– significant increase of the quotas for admission of Ukrainian applicants to Russian universities.
4. Granting the Russian language the status of the state language, along with Ukrainian.
5. Ensure the normal functioning of hospitals and polyclinics with the preservation of free medical care with guaranteed coverage of the deficit of funds at the expense of the state budget.
FOREIGN TRADE
1. Promoting Ukraine’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union:
– carrying out economic impact calculations;
– legal analysis;
– justification of Ukraine’s withdrawal from its Association with the EU (economic and legal findings on non-legitimacy);
– development of a road map for accession.
2. Lifting of mutual economic sanctions.
3. Re-establishment of free trade.
4. Resumption of co-operative relations.
5. Imposing a ban on the export of grain and other critical goods to ensure food security.
FISCAL SPHERE
1. Inclusion of a limited emission financing regime for the state budget deficit.
2. Revision of the state budget for 2022 with zeroing of expenditures on defense, state security, functioning of the Constitutional Court, Verkhovna Rada, functioning of the Foreign Ministry and diplomatic representations of Ukraine abroad.
3. Monitoring tax payments of structure-forming / important enterprises, excises and VAT; temporary exemption from taxation of enterprises which were destroyed or suspended their activities due to military actions.
POLITICAL AND LEGAL SUPPORT
1. Dissolution of the Verkhovna Rada, the Government, the Constitutional Court and possibly the Supreme Court as illegitimate bodies after the usurpation of power through an anti-constitutional coup d’état in 2014
2. Recognition of all legislative acts adopted after the coup d’état in 2014 invalid if they contradict the Constitution and the laws of Ukraine, which had been in force until February 21, 2014
3. Maintaining the legitimacy of local self-government bodies elected directly by the population. Transfer powers of regional state administrations to local self-government bodies, with the dissolution and liquidation of the former.
4. Delegation (by local self-government bodies) of people’s representatives to participate in the Constitutional Assembly to draft the new Constitution of Ukraine, with a national referendum afterwards.
5. Option. Hold referendums (organized by local self-government bodies) on the secession of respective regions from Ukraine. The creation of Federations of such areas with the participation of the LDPR.
PROPERTY RELATIONS
1. Seizure of assets of the persons accused and suspected of crimes.
2. Freezing of assets owned by U.S. and NATO residents, as well as offshore zones.
3. External supervision over structure-forming and strategically important enterprises, with the aim of controlling asset preservation and ensuring good management.
4. Introduction of external management on enterprises owned by persons whose assets have been seized or frozen or which have been left without director generals.
5. Introduction of external management on military industrial complex, nuclear power and industry, as well as metallurgical, chemical and other industries which pose a threat to the environment and the population.
TRANSITIONAL ADMINISTRATION
Prior to the constitutional reform, the elections to the Verkhovna Rada and the formation of a legitimate government, provisional authorities should be established. It is proposed to retain local self-government bodies and district courts on the basis of existing ones. Transitional public authorities should be formed in the order as follows:
1. Within a week, hold an election to the local self-government bodies of the liberated towns / cities (the former national authorities that were formed after the 2014 coup are to be found non-legitimate) and elect representatives to the People’s Assembly, that will convene to form new national executive bodies and draft the new Constitution.
2. Form the People’s Self-Government Committee at the first meeting of the People’s Assembly, which will be entrusted to perform the functions of the Ukrainian government until the election of the Verkhovna Rada takes place.
3. The People’s Self-Government Committee (KNS) is to appoint the ministers (except for the ministers of security forces and the foreign minister, who are to be eliminated), heads of departments, the National Bank of Ukraine, directors of structure-forming, strategically significant and environmentally hazardous enterprises (that will have external management).
4.The KNS appoints the acting heads of regional administrations, whose functions will be limited to ensuring law and order as well as the operation of regional life support systems, fiscal and other republican bodies.
5. Police units and the support systems of towns / cities will be transferred to local self-government bodies.
6. In Donetsk and Odessa, people’s tribunals – that will review the committed crimes against humanity, war crimes, political repressions, acts of genocide on the territory of LDPR and Ukraine, respectively – will be launched. The members of the tribunals shall be appointed via a general public assembly; charges shall be passed on to courts located in the areas where the crimes had been committed.
7. The People’s Assembly will impose a moratorium – for any leadership positions and participation in elections – on persons who participated in the 2014 coup and then worked for state authorities and law enforcement agencies, as well as those who are accused or suspected of committing crimes.
8. The martial law, introduced by Zelensky, will be maintained until the election of a new Verkhovna Rada. Representatives of the Russian armed forces, stationed in the respective localities, are to monitor the observance of martial law.
9. At the request of the population of Ukraine’s liberated regions, referendums will be held on secession and the creation of sovereign people’s republics.
In the future, they can unite to form new state entities (Novorossiya, Malorossiya, Slobozhanshchina …) or rejoin Russia (the reserve option).
The Poles have been abused by a lot more nations than just Russia.
Sounds like BS, Mother Russia is broke..Hell they have suspected tank production due to lack of parts.
The big deal is who lives in these places now, and what they think. The peoples who were there at one time don’t matter. The past is past.
Half my family is Basque, and were Basque nationalists. One of my great uncles was a member of the Basque government in exile. I understand the situation of Ukraine very well, our position was analogous, vis a vis Spain. The Ukrainians insist on independence, and they should have it.
The Poles arent being threatened by their old abusers anymore, other than German-driven war of words via the control freak EU. The Russians though are a different story.
хорошо сыграно, товарищ!
CC
It doesn’t bother me. It’s total bs.
There is some evidence that the Russian forces bit off more than they can chew, but a lot of stuff we read is biased on one side or the other. I wish this nation had at least OK leaders, but we don’t.
Yes his analysis is over the top and I wonder why people like he and MacGregor are so very invested in the idea of Russian inevitable victory. And that Russia is the victim of aggression by NATO.
However, although I support Ukraine, there certainly is the chance that Russia will win. Russia is the much larger country and military, and can always achieve a break through, or a series of break throughs over a long period of time. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are fighting well and receiving significant aid. But no other country has yet decided to come to their direct aid.
Putin obviously is facing a terrible loss and that makes him even more determined to push through to a victory.
If we had a strong American president,Russia might be bled out as we up our assistance to Ukraine.
So this could go either way.
But let’s recall at the beginning everyone thought Russia would prevail in a week or two. And at this point, Russia’s future is unclear even if it achieves “victory” Ukraine is destroyed and angry, the West is horrified, and Russia may reap the whirlwind. Maybe.
Maybe Russia is defeating Ukraine, I’m not sure what to believe. I have heard that Putin’s problems with angry citizens is real though.
Unfortunately for Basques, they didn’t have a big brother next door. If France was majority Basque, it would have annexed the basque area of spain ages ago
What if the victim is a criminal as well and now it’s two criminals. Kind of like if Mussolini’s Italy and Hitler’s Germany dueled it out in the early 30’s. Who would hsve got their knickers in a twist over it. Just 2 aholes going at it
Are you sure Rhodes was not talking about the certainty of at least one American bomber getting through Russian air defenses, rather than the chance Russians could get through ours?
After all, we know the Russkies talk big but lack know-how, and our military guys have good old Yankee ingenuity (at least they did before Obama).
This is true even if the Russians happen to know our bomber’s exact flight plan:
Life imitates art, you know. ;)
Good night.
The Basques did “win” in a sense. They got what their beef was about anyway, which was regional autonomy. They make their own local laws, they require the use of their own language, they set their own tax rates, etc. The whole problem started when the then-liberal Spanish state, in the 1830s, started eliminating the “fueros”, or charters of local rights.
The only way the Russians win is by finding more manpower, and to do that they have to mobilize their conscript reservists. If you see them do that, it will be the turning point.
yep-Russia Army sucks
Larry Johnson’s big claim to fame is his geneology search shows he is a descendendt of men who fought in our revolutionary war-if he was writing then he would be calling it a civil war as many Bristich still do and defending King Gerorge.
He would lke you to beleive he was a big CIA operative when in fact he was a lowe level “reader” as is my cousin. Larry’s company , Berg Associaties-whose web site is now defunct , provides in “ consulting services in the disciplines of money laundering, aviation security, and counter terrorism”
so if you need money laundered go see him
He would have had more credibility if he simply said there is no good side here in this war
He calls out Zelenskyy like many did Reagan, continuing to call him an actor and somehow forgets when he writes about Nazis (ooohh scary) that the Soviet Union was allies with Nazi Germany from 1939 to 1941-something Putin is still fine with
Sounds like Poroshenko’s mistakes.
They still seem to be killing lots of Russians. Better get a bigger mop!
I enjoy reading this kind of abject silliness.
It’s good to be inside the fantasy of putinophiles.
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