But if you get on a big losing streak the necessary bet will eventually exceed your remaining # of chips.
Putin is like a lucky gambler who has been playing this strategy for 20 years and he has never lost yet. So he comes to the Casino Ukraina confident that this is just going to be one more big night for him, just like that time at the Hotel Crimea – he’s still talking about that one 8 years later. His friends at the casino have assured him that they have marked the deck and the dealer is in on it and he’s gonna break the bank.
But this time the cards are not running in his favor. His friends have lied – the fix is not in. In fact the dealer is onto his scam and keeps bringing out new packs of cards. Putin is still furiously doubling down – he hasn’t gone bust yet. He’s getting red faced and angry and is starting to mumble about how he has been double crossed and he still has a big bankroll (but then when it checks it, half the roll has disappeared – did his pocket get picked? ) He tries his credit cards but they are refused. He calls up his Chinese buddy to bring more cash but Ji Pin Xing (or whatever his name is) doesn’t answer his phone. Looks like its gonna be a bad night for Vlad. Will our boy make it? Tune in to find out.
Our main longshot hope is that someone or some group in Russia forces regime change, because it isn't happening in Washington.
You’re going to anger the resident Putin fan bois.
Putin’s winning streak is at an end. He keeps putting the nuclear card on the table and as he keeps doing this the odds of someone in his inner circle killing him rises.
Putin might be okay gambling with Russia’s future but not everyone in Russia is good with this.
One of the effects of the current war in Ukraine is that a lot of smaller countries are no longer impressed by the claims of ‘Russian military might’ when dreadfully overmatched Ukraine has been kicking the Russian bear in its balls the past few weeks.
Putin’s war has exposed the weaknesses, corruption, and arrogance of the Russian military. The men marched to war with food that expired years and years ago. Brittle tires have failed. Infantry troops are hiding in vehicles and dying in them. Russian air power is nearly absent from this war due to the effectiveness of Ukrainian anti-air fire. Their navy proved it can sink defenseless cargo ships but they’re outmatched by shore based MRL trucks. God help them if they get close enough to take fire from anti-tank missiles.
I say all of that because Russia’s greatest enemy is watching and that’s China. I’ve been saying all along that now is a great time for China to move on Siberia. Actually, every passing day makes Siberia easier and easier for China to take back.
Speculation aside, this war has made Russia demonstrably weaker than it was prior to the war.
Putin has failed Russia.
Russia shelling Kiev now.
Very interesting.
I watched Colonel MacGregor talk about a prospective invasion shortly back in January. One of his predictions was that eastern Ukraine would fall quickly as the people there would rise for the Russians, so the Russians would have a very rapid advance to the Dnieper and western Ukraine. That prediction very clearly did not come true.
Putin has guarantees that for decades, the vast majority of Russians regardless of ethnicity are going to absolutely hate Russia itself.
Excellent summation.
Weather this can be stopped is the question.
A study of history would indicate not.
The only question that matters in your scenario is...does he have 100% control of his nukes. If he does not, the have at the guy...if he does... you need to break his nuclear chain first. Otherwise you are playing with thermonuclear war if you shoot and miss.
ABSOLUTELY GREAT ARTICLE, THANK YOU!
I also follow this guy. He had an amazing thread about how American engineers and businessmen totally built up Soviet factories and industrial production from the late 1920s onward. Coal, tractor and tool factories were exactly modeled after U.S. versions, and in fact the sections were built HERE and assembled Lego-style over there. Also documents how Stalin could not afford to pay for it, and starved millions of Ukranians to death in the Holodomor so he could sell the wheat overseas for cash to pay for it.
Ethnic cleansing?
The united Ukraine really surprised me.
The country used to be quite divided.
Since Russia was better off, no wonder, Russian speakers were preferring pro-Russian allegiance.
But now, the war is being fought almost exclusively in Russian areas. The civilians being massacred are mostly ethnic Russians. The Ukrainian soldiers, I see on videos, are mostly speaking Russian.
Yet, the population is obviously supporting Zelensky now.
Massive shift from the year 2014!
I was not aware of the situation in “freed” East provinces. This article is quite eye opening to me, but it sounds right. Something had to cause this huge shift.
Fantastic article! One of the best in months. Look forward to reading more of your cogent, well reasoned, articulate commentary.
^^
Good article. I don’t know if it’s true or not, but he does appear to have gone more deeply into the facts and the situation on the ground than a lot of people commenting on the situation.
One of the best threads on FR for a long time. Good discussion.