Posted on 03/20/2022 7:09:22 PM PDT by Zhang Fei
But if you get on a big losing streak the necessary bet will eventually exceed your remaining # of chips.
Putin is like a lucky gambler who has been playing this strategy for 20 years and he has never lost yet. So he comes to the Casino Ukraina confident that this is just going to be one more big night for him, just like that time at the Hotel Crimea – he’s still talking about that one 8 years later. His friends at the casino have assured him that they have marked the deck and the dealer is in on it and he’s gonna break the bank.
But this time the cards are not running in his favor. His friends have lied – the fix is not in. In fact the dealer is onto his scam and keeps bringing out new packs of cards. Putin is still furiously doubling down – he hasn’t gone bust yet. He’s getting red faced and angry and is starting to mumble about how he has been double crossed and he still has a big bankroll (but then when it checks it, half the roll has disappeared – did his pocket get picked? ) He tries his credit cards but they are refused. He calls up his Chinese buddy to bring more cash but Ji Pin Xing (or whatever his name is) doesn’t answer his phone. Looks like its gonna be a bad night for Vlad. Will our boy make it? Tune in to find out.
Our main longshot hope is that someone or some group in Russia forces regime change, because it isn't happening in Washington.
You’re going to anger the resident Putin fan bois.
The numbers back you up, Putin can wage war in Ukraine indefinitely.
Putin’s winning streak is at an end. He keeps putting the nuclear card on the table and as he keeps doing this the odds of someone in his inner circle killing him rises.
Putin might be okay gambling with Russia’s future but not everyone in Russia is good with this.
One of the effects of the current war in Ukraine is that a lot of smaller countries are no longer impressed by the claims of ‘Russian military might’ when dreadfully overmatched Ukraine has been kicking the Russian bear in its balls the past few weeks.
Putin’s war has exposed the weaknesses, corruption, and arrogance of the Russian military. The men marched to war with food that expired years and years ago. Brittle tires have failed. Infantry troops are hiding in vehicles and dying in them. Russian air power is nearly absent from this war due to the effectiveness of Ukrainian anti-air fire. Their navy proved it can sink defenseless cargo ships but they’re outmatched by shore based MRL trucks. God help them if they get close enough to take fire from anti-tank missiles.
I say all of that because Russia’s greatest enemy is watching and that’s China. I’ve been saying all along that now is a great time for China to move on Siberia. Actually, every passing day makes Siberia easier and easier for China to take back.
Speculation aside, this war has made Russia demonstrably weaker than it was prior to the war.
Putin has failed Russia.
I’d argue the analogy might be closer to the situations below, if Zelensky’s generals manage to pull off a conventional victory:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Soviet_War_in_1920
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War
My sense is that Biden will drag his heels on any aid to Ukraine to the extent he can. Both parties are on his case, so he can’t outright zero out the aid. Troops on the ground would be a no-no for this Putin lapdog, though.
Yanukovich ran to Moscow because he was Putin’s man. Who was Yanukovich’s man, who left Ukraine when Yanukovich scuttled away to his master in Russia? Zlochevsky, who *co-incidentally* owned Burisma, the outfit that bribed Biden through Hunter.
Why hasn’t the media made the connection? For the same reason it’s completely uninterested in Hunter Biden’s laptop.
[I say all of that because Russia’s greatest enemy is watching and that’s China. I’ve been saying all along that now is a great time for China to move on Siberia. Actually, every passing day makes Siberia easier and easier for China to take back.]
Russia shelling Kiev now.
That’s a chart of money that’s locked up in Western banks. And $20 billion doesn’t buy a trained military. And that’s what is needed to conquer Ukraine right now is old fashioned boots on the ground with competent officers who listen to competent NCOs.
Russia has none of these.
Very interesting.
I watched Colonel MacGregor talk about a prospective invasion shortly back in January. One of his predictions was that eastern Ukraine would fall quickly as the people there would rise for the Russians, so the Russians would have a very rapid advance to the Dnieper and western Ukraine. That prediction very clearly did not come true.
Putin has guarantees that for decades, the vast majority of Russians regardless of ethnicity are going to absolutely hate Russia itself.
Excellent summation.
Weather this can be stopped is the question.
A study of history would indicate not.
What is WITH all these N00bs, reciting he precise globaloid, swampy, Schwab/Soros, MSM talking points...to a tee.
What slime puddle are you fkrs slithering in from?
The only question that matters in your scenario is...does he have 100% control of his nukes. If he does not, the have at the guy...if he does... you need to break his nuclear chain first. Otherwise you are playing with thermonuclear war if you shoot and miss.
The escalation to using hypersonic weapons is a scare tactic that smells of desperation. Limited Western intervention with a viable peace proposal that throws Putin a bone like recognition of Crimea would make it plain he won't be allowed to win and still provide him a peer with which to negotiate and a "golden bridge" to back down on. As it is, there is real risk of unplanned escalation, either by Putin or by a NATO member such as Poland.
Those revenues have to pay not just for the items ordinary Russians need on a daily basis, but also for the massive additional expenditures for the war. I question how long Russians will be willing to do that.
It's also worth noting that Russia never really did defeat Chechnya, which is more than twenty times smaller than Ukraine. They ended up signing a peace treaty that left the Chechens with a lot of autonomy.
The Russian tolerance for dead Russian soldiers is not unlimited.
Russia literally cannot defeat Ukraine if you Ukraine is unwilling to surrender. They don’t have anywhere near the number of troops required.
Actually, every passing day makes Siberia easier and easier for China to take back.
Every reinforcement Russia makes to the East makes
Siberia easier for the Chinese who need those natural
resources, and they have lots of settlers who would
like free land.
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