Posted on 03/16/2022 3:10:04 AM PDT by Jyotishi
When will the guerilla war against Russian occupation start? Will the Ukrainian Govt retreat to Lviv? Will Russia invade western Ukraine too?
Two weeks since Russia invaded Ukraine, and still no ‘decapitation’ of the Ukrainian government, no city captured except Kherson (which no non-Ukrainian had ever heard of before the war), and maybe 2,000 military dead on each side.
It’s not exactly a stalemate, since the Russians have more tanks, more artillery and more air power, and they have not yet used them as aggressively as they might. So, we can use this (relative) pause in the fighting to examine Moscow’s remaining options.
The Ukrainians have no option except to stay on the defensive, keep fighting and hope for the best, but the Russians have a plethora of choices ranging from ‘quit and go home’ to ‘use nuclear weapons’.
What the Russians have done up to now is contrary to their own military doctrines. Indeed, it was probably imposed on the military by President Vladimir Putin, because it was based on magical thinking.
Standard Russian doctrine for attacking a country the size of Ukraine would require a methodical advance, with massive artillery and air strikes paving the way and logistical support following close behind. Instead, they sent tanks and motorised infantry on cross-country dashes to grab key targets with only the food and ammunition they could carry.
It would have worked if most Ukrainians had really been praying for Russia to liberate them from the drug-addled Jewish Nazi gangsters who Putin said ruled their country, but it’s unwise to believe your own propaganda. The Ukrainians resisted and the Russian armoured columns stalled. By Day Five Russian troops were buying or stealing food from the locals.
The sixty-km-long military convoy that has been stuck on the road north of Kiev for a week could serve as a logo for the whole misbegotten operation. Now there is a pause while scapegoats are found (because Putin must not be blamed) and new plans are being made (perhaps by new commanders). But there will be a second phase.
It will probably be ‘by the book’, which means that the defenders will be crushed by massive firepower in order to spare the lives of Russian troops.
So far only Kharkiv and Mariupol have had the full treatment, with only occasional rockets hitting other big cities. This is probably because Putin thought he could win without destroying iconic cities like Kyiv and Odessa and killing tens of thousands of people. Even the man who levelled Grozny and Aleppo understands that too much blood is bad PR.
That possibility no longer exists (indeed, it probably never did), so now his choices are retreat or mass slaughter. Since retreat would probably mean he also loses power - ‘he led us into a needless war, he brought shame and humiliation on us, and he lost the war’ - Putin will see that as no choice at all, so the mass slaughter will probably commence.
Beyond this, the questions multiply. How long will the sieges last? When will the guerilla war against the Russian occupation start? Will the Ukrainian government retreat to Lviv? Will Russia invade western Ukraine too?
Here’s a more fundamental question: could all this have been avoided by some different choice in the past?
Not by refusing to let the formerly Communist-ruled countries of eastern Europe join NATO. Having suffered under Russian overlords for forty-five years after the Second World War, and in some cases having been invaded to bring them back into line - Hungary 1956, Czechoslovia 1967 - they desperately wanted the protection of Nato membership.
Some of them had even longer experience of Russian imperialism - Poles spent the entire 19th century under Russian rule - and they knew Russia’s reflex is always to build a buffer zone of obedient vassal countries around it. It would have been unthinkable to leave them out in the cold.
That whole debate about whether NATO should have refused to let them in ignores the history. A better approach might have been to let Russia join NATO too, but it would have had to be a very different Russia.
Such a Russia may have been within reach in the 1990s if the country had been treated with respect, the carpet-baggers had been kept out, and the West had not put its money on that drunken fool Boris Yeltsin. But many people think all of that was inevitable, and maybe it was.
In any case, we are where we are, and the task for NATO now is to protect Ukraine, the country it kept out, while avoiding a nuclear war.
(Gwynne Dyer’s new book is ‘The Shortest History of War’. The views expressed are personal.)
The Ukrainians are negotiating a withdrawal of both American and Russian imperialists. The conflict will end in a peace settlement if it can be accomplished before the neocon warmongers in DC subvert the process.
“The Ukrainians are negotiating a withdrawal of both American and Russian imperialists.”
—
The best scenario for Ukraine is to move toward some semblance of neutrality and try to avoid putting itself in the middle of NATO v. Russian pissin contests.
Z is just now realizing that, hence yesterday’s “On second thought, forget about that whole NATO membership thing.”
Get all of the foreign money and the leeches out of Ukraine.
The Ukraine has rich agricultural resources and those features should be emphasized by the resident Ukrainians.
The country is positioned to feed Europe.
Ukraine was doing OK vis a vis Russia from the end of the Warsaw Pact until Obama/Soros, Inc. showed up in 2010. If the Ukrainians can cleanse themselves of the American DS corruption, the Russians would be thrilled to get out of this quagmire.
“The task for NATO now is to protect Ukraine, the country it kept out, while avoiding a nuclear war.“
Better pack a lunch.
The Russians have more tanks, artillery, and airpower. So what, it won’t help in an urban environment.
Moscow has overtaken open fields and are being ambushed from the woods and towns.
Ukraine is loking for some foreign mercenaries. Here's your chance.
“foreign mercenaries. Here’s your chance.”
Is there free beer?
Both the Ukraine and Russian people have known really hard times over long periods, but the Russians are better equipped to make it through.
A settlement which involves friendly relations - trade/business/economic deals (although Ukraine would be under the Russ “sphere” in reality) - would benefit both and save face on both sides.
“If the Ukrainians can cleanse themselves of the American DS corruption...”
The Clinton/Obama/Biden axis of evil is everywhere. The regime’s tentacles go far beyond Ukraine. The center of ALL evil in the world is right here in America, CIA, FBI, DHS are rotten to the core.
Nothing will improve ANYWHERE in the world until the Chinese puppet regime is utterly destroyed, root and branch.
The author Dyer seems to follow the hard lines of warfare filled in with the soft lines of politics. It’s very Stoic to say stuff like “the slaughter of civilians will commence”.
All of this was avoidable.
Bttt
You reply has opened a new way of looking at the geopolitical balance of power. For the last 75 years it has been the Free World vs. the communist (monolithic or not) Comintern. The “Free World” no longer exists. Is it now an unholy alliance of Obama/Soros/DS Arms,Inc./One World Communication bolstered by a freelance US Intelligence Community vs China and its newfound lackey in Europe, the Russians?
That is called balance of power politics. That is exactly what has prevented WWIII up until now. Why chuck the concept?
I had contact with a group brought over from Russia after the fall. A factory had developed a method of making stainless steel, and US Steel bought the process. Nice folks, and for their first morning in America, they all ordered three Egg McMuffins. They had never had one (1991-92) and it represented the “the good western life” to them.
A lady in the group lost her purse. She was frantic until a call came in that it had been found.
“How much do they want for it?” she asked. She was astonished that people in America did good deeds for each other, like just returning her purse. She expected it to be held for ransom!
“so now his choices are retreat or mass slaughter. Since retreat would probably mean he also loses power - ‘he led us into a needless war, he brought shame and humiliation on us, and he lost the war’ - Putin will see that as no choice at all, so the mass slaughter will probably commence. “
Putin is a dead man walking. There is no out for him and his foolish miscalculation.
Stopped reading right there.
When will the guerilla war against Russian occupation start?
It already has.
Will the Ukrainian Govt retreat to Lviv?
They probably already have.
Will Russia invade western Ukraine too?
Yes, they will.
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