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RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MARCH 10 (change in tone)
ISW ^ | 10-MAR-2022 | ISW

Posted on 03/10/2022 3:25:07 PM PST by SpeedyInTexas

The likelihood is increasing that Ukrainian forces could fight to a standstill the Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv. Russian forces also appear to be largely stalemated around Kharkiv and distracted from efforts to seize that city. Russian advances in the south around Mykolayiv and toward Zaporizhya and in the east around Donetsk and Luhansk made little progress as well in the last 24 hours. Russia likely retains much greater combat power in the south and east and will probably renew more effective offensive operations in the coming days, but the effective reach and speed of such operations is questionable given the general performance of the Russian military to date. There are as yet no indications that the Russian military is reorganizing, reforming, learning lessons, or taking other measures that would lead to a sudden change in the pace or success of its operations, although the numerical disparities between Russia and Ukraine leave open the possibility that Moscow will be able to restore rapid mobility or effective urban warfare to the battlefield.

(Excerpt) Read more at understandingwar.org ...


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Been reading these reports daily. ISW's analysis has slowly evolved. From Russia will win to "well, maybe".
1 posted on 03/10/2022 3:25:07 PM PST by SpeedyInTexas
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To: SpeedyInTexas

BTW, Kill the Russian Invaders!


2 posted on 03/10/2022 3:25:37 PM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Whenever a Russian soldier is killed, an Angel gets its wings)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

The co-author is Kagan, brother-in-law of Victoria Nuland, the architect of US policy towards Ukraine for the past decade. Not to say they’re wrong. We shall see.


3 posted on 03/10/2022 3:27:42 PM PST by Stingray51 ( )
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To: SpeedyInTexas
Kill the Russian Invaders!

FB and Instagram have green lighted that talk, so you have company on that feeling.

Good luck to you, but.... NCSWIC.

Nothing.

4 posted on 03/10/2022 3:29:05 PM PST by C210N (Everything will be okay in the end. If it’s not okay, it’s not the end.)
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To: Stingray51

Nonetheless, Kagan has changed his tone.


5 posted on 03/10/2022 3:29:56 PM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Whenever a Russian soldier is killed, an Angel gets its wings)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Russia has stripped their military districts and sent way too much of their military into Ukraine. The economy that allowed Putin to build even this much of a Russian military is now ended and pretty quick the logistics troops are going to be put in the field.

Because that’s what’s left.

Putin at one point claimed that Russia’s best professional soldiers were handling this war and now his own MOD says there’s a bunch of conscripts and reserves in it.

Russia is not going to win this thing. They had a chance and now that chance is vaporizing before their eyes.


6 posted on 03/10/2022 3:30:17 PM PST by MercyFlush (I don't follow the science. I follow the money. )
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Bad news for Putin. Time is not on his side while his currency crashes and his stock market turned to penny stocks.


7 posted on 03/10/2022 3:30:40 PM PST by Sam Gamgee
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Yes, he has


8 posted on 03/10/2022 3:33:28 PM PST by Stingray51 ( )
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To: All

we should all go to the mediterranean and grab us some russian superyachts while supplies last


9 posted on 03/10/2022 3:34:24 PM PST by SteveH (.)
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To: MercyFlush

Invader tank losses at 173 documented. Probably above 200, 250 with undocumented losses. Out of 1200 tanks at onset of war.

They’ve lost 1/6 of their tanks in 2 weeks!

But Little Pukin says they are “on plan”. They must have had a bad plan.


10 posted on 03/10/2022 3:34:49 PM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Whenever a Russian soldier is killed, an Angel gets its wings)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Bookmark


11 posted on 03/10/2022 3:37:07 PM PST by tsowellfan
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Oil has been retreating from the highs earlier in the week. Kagan was also a Iraq war fanboy.


12 posted on 03/10/2022 3:37:56 PM PST by Theoria
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To: MercyFlush
The Russians vastly underestimated the improvement in the Ukrainian military between 2015 and 2022 -- largely due U.S. and allied trainers and advisors.

Have to note that Ukraine also participated in Afghanistan, and Ukrainian Special Forces rescued a bunch of Canadians trapped in Kabul when it fell.

Didn't see the Russians there.

13 posted on 03/10/2022 3:39:17 PM PST by Bruce Campbells Chin ( .)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Hardly. Over half of those “documented” are actually destroyed Ukranian tanks. You are buying into the leftist agit-prop.


14 posted on 03/10/2022 3:40:26 PM PST by Godebert
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To: SpeedyInTexas
You've been using Kim Kagan's Institute for the Study of War to form your opinions? This is a full blown neocon rag that loves war. And did I mention they despise Trump? Well done, Speedy!!!

Kimberly Kagan is founder and president of the Institute for the Study of War. She is an advocate of long-term U.S. military engagement abroad, particularly in Afghanistan and Syria. She has been critical of both current and past U.S. administrations, arguing that both Donald Trump and Barack Obama failed to implement “a robust enough humanitarian or civil society or military approach” in U.S. foreign affairs.[1]

15 posted on 03/10/2022 3:40:47 PM PST by JonPreston (Q: Never have so many, been so wrong, so often)
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To: MercyFlush

When the history books are written, the Russian invasion of Ukraine will go down as one of the greatest military blunders of modern times, possibly of all time. A little megalomaniacal dictator who overplayed his hand brought his moderately prosperous nation to ruin.


16 posted on 03/10/2022 3:41:10 PM PST by libh8er
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To: All

people like to counter with all news is propaganda... sure... putting all that aside.

even stevie wonder can see that the russian has not won yet in two weeks.

as for nukes... i can see why we never use them again even in vietnam.


17 posted on 03/10/2022 3:42:16 PM PST by VAFreedom (Wuhan Pneumonia-Made by CCP, Copyright Xi Jingping)
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To: Bruce Campbells Chin

Ukrainian special forces have been trained by US (and allies). Much improved military.

Significantly, the military leadership ranks have been replaced with vets from the 8 years of war in the east. That replaced a lot of potentially secret “pro-Russian” elements in the military leadership.


18 posted on 03/10/2022 3:42:28 PM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Whenever a Russian soldier is killed, an Angel gets its wings)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

In the interview today, Zelensky admitted that Ukrainians cannot hold off the Russians indefinitely without a no-fly zone.

Zelensky is trying desperately to get NATO involved.

The Ukrainians made a deal with the devil. Biden and the Eurotrash have hung them high and dry.

The clear message is: NO HELP IS COMING! YOU ARE ON YOUR OWN!


19 posted on 03/10/2022 3:44:07 PM PST by Flavious_Maximus (Fauci is a murderer)
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To: JonPreston

“You’ve been using Kim Kagan’s Institute for the Study of War to form your opinions?”

I’m saying their tone has changed since the war started. Do you disagree?


20 posted on 03/10/2022 3:44:12 PM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Whenever a Russian soldier is killed, an Angel gets its wings)
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