Posted on 03/10/2022 10:26:06 AM PST by lasereye
History shows we could be nearing the end of the stock market's 2022 correction.
"The current correction in stocks is overdue: we have not had a 10%+ S&P 500 correction since the quick bear market of March 2020. 10%+ corrections have occurred once per year on average since 1930, and have lasted on average 54 trading days before lifting more than 10% from the trough (since January 3, the market has dropped 13% as of Wednesday's low and Thursday is the 45th trading day)," pointed out Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian.
Despite the compelling history lesson (which suggests we are nine sessions away from a short-term market bottom), there is still a lot coming at investors that could easily take stocks into a bear market.
Brent crude oil prices traded around $112 a barrel Thursday as traders continued to digest the Biden administration's ban of imports of Russian oil, liquefied natural gas and coal in response to the country's war on Ukraine.
Prices are off their highs of nearly $139 a barrel on optimism U.S. oil majors such as Exxon and Chevron will produce more to make up for any lost Russian output.
Oil prices have surged roughly 25% since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Prices at U.S. gas pumps have skyrocketed above $4 a gallon on average, notes AAA. Prices have climbed north of $5 a gallon in California.
"It is not unfathomable for prices to rocket to $200 a barrel by summer, spur a recession and end the year closer to $50 a barrel ($200 call options have been bid)," said RBC Capital Markets analyst Michael Tran.
Meanwhile, large Western companies from McDonald's to American Express have suspended operations in Russia due to its war. The financial impacts could weigh on corporate earnings in the quarters ahead.
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
No.
F NO
Hahahaha.
More propaganda from Yahoo and their friends.
(History shows we could be nearing the end of the stock market’s 2022 correction.)
😄😂🤣
Hell no! It’s just getting started.
Is Biden out of office?
Brian Stozzi. Wow, the administration is really spinning the favors and payments rollodex this week. Filed under “Shill”.
(Sozzi)
It’s going to be a long and bumpy road ahead.
Maybe, but anyone who says they know either way is a liar.
History equivalently shows that the market does not do well in times of inflation, much less near-runaway inflation.
Rising rates are also thought to impinge upon NASDAQ high flyers, eg tech stocks, which went from 20% of the SP500 to about 26% of the SP500.
While there’s plenty of “wall of worry” stuff to keep the bullish case alive, there is also the presence or absence of a general appetite for stocks. And while that can come and go on a near daily basis, if it isn’t sustained, the market will likely flatline, at best.
And lastly, the banks. JPM is down from 170 to 130. Goldman is 100 pts off its highs. Yet these stocks should reflect optimism as to bank performance based upon higher rates. They have been trading like crap, and I do not have an explanation other than thinking that they see poorer business conditions going forward. Unless the market decides upon a new internal definition of itself, without the banks, the market is not going to be able to rally.
Stock prices are based on the multiples of forward looking earnings.
For huge conglomerates, they are going to have to recover from the losses of doing business in Russia (about 2-3% depending on the company.)
If you imported anything from Russia (lets say palladium and titanium) your source just died. Not slowed down...died. Palladium is essential in car manufacturing. Titanium is essential in aircraft. They are both used in a bunch of stuff.
They will have to accomodate increased wages and inflation...lets say 6% of their expenses will go up.
Then, if they are transporting ANYTHING, they have to factor in the price of additional transport—and the affiliated disruptions in the supply chain.
Now if you have to slow down building airplanes and cars, that means laying off workers. Those workers were buying homes and spending money on food, clothing, and entertainment.
So, if you want to start factoring in those items, trying to determine where the company profits are going...I think we can agree that profits are not going up for most companies.
Lower profits MUST be offset by lower expenses. But expenses are sky rocketing.
See where this is going.
So, until those factors start looking positive...the overall market will not fare well. SOME aspects will do OK. But major manufacturing will probably hurt for a while.
...I mean (perfectly timed) covid worked well for the 'rats in 2020, didn't it?
So did hurricane Sandy. Fat boy’s big hug of Barak. We have to deal with it my friends and our leaders are not.
More Happy Talk from the “Experts” who have gotten EVERYTHING wrong for years.....
It will be over when it reaches Zero.
...plan works best when you also create the crisis.
That said, Sandy was an "act of nature" that "those who do" took advantage of.
...Covid on the other-hand...???
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