Posted on 03/09/2022 3:41:08 PM PST by blam
The warning signs are everywhere. We are stumbling toward an energy crisis that is likely to be far more severe and long-lasting than the upheavals of the 1970s. And no, this isn’t about Russia or Ukraine. This is about the perilous state of the U.S. electricity grid.
If action isn’t taken soon to address the unraveling reliability of the grid, the United States will face the specter of rolling blackouts, factory shutdowns, loss of jobs and soaring electricity bills. Our organization CASE recently released a policy brief highlighting just how dire the situation is.
Events In recent years show how serious the situation is. According To the Wall Street Journal, outages have gone from fewer than two dozen major disruptions in 2000 to more than 180 in 2020. The catastrophic blackouts that gripped Texas for a week in February of last year should have been eye-opening. Now, warnings from regulators, grid operators and utilities suggest far worse is coming.
There’s no getting around it. The nation’s electricity transmission system is growing increasingly undependable. Aging infrastructure, severe weather, and the rapid pivot away from baseload power to intermittent solar and wind are all contributing. Supply chain problems and local opposition to building new power lines and siting renewable projects are also turning into increasingly tall hurdles. Expectations of increased demand driven by electric vehicles are only compounding the challenge.
The energy transition is happening but the question we must ask is how do we responsibly manage it? It’s becoming apparent that the transition to renewables is vastly more difficult and complicated than some believed. Those who want to shut down every coal and natural gas plant ignore that fossil fuels supply 60% of America’s electricity. There’s growing alarm the America’s haphazard approach to the energy transition is taking apart the existing grid and the reliable generating capacity that long underpinned it far faster than we’re adding reliable alternatives.
Coal plants, in particular, are being pushed aside when it’s becoming painfully clear the optionality, fuel security and reliability they offer the grid is still very much needed. If we continue as we are – ditching the well-operating power plants that hold the grid together during severe heat and biting winter cold –we’re only going to exacerbate this crisis of our own making.
The affordability of our power supply also hangs in the balance. Last year, a 17% surge in coal-fired electricity helped shield consumers from rising natural gas prices. As we continue to disassemble the coal fleet, with another 100 gigawatts of coal capacity expected to close by 2030, we’re robbing the grid of an important price shock absorber for when natural gas prices rise. With global demand for gas rising, U.S. exports soaring and the Russian invasion of Ukraine throwing volatility into global energy markets, dismantling fuel optionality is short-sighted and reckless.
Europe’s decision to race away from coal and close much of its nuclear power capacity before having reliable alternatives in place, has left it at the mercy of Russian natural gas imports and soaring global gas prices. Energy security – now more so than since the energy crises of the 1970s – requires careful attention. The singular, haphazard focus of climate-driven energy policy requires an abrupt rethink.
There remains an opportunity for an energy policy reset – both at the state and federal levels – to tackle this reliability and affordability crisis head on. First, we must recognize the need for dispatchable fuel diversity and fuel security. That must also include a commitment to increasing capacity reserve margins in electricity markets instead of letting them continue to shrink. As we grapple with the complexities of the energy transition and the challenges posed by integrating renewable power and building transmission infrastructure, we need a reliability and affordability insurance policy. The insurance we can provide is recognizing the value of the generating capacity we already have and the importance of dispatchable fuel diversity. Responsibly navigating the road ahead means building on the shoulders of our existing baseload capacity, not taking it apart.
I'm already fearing what my AC electricity bill will be this summer.
I'm 78 and in November I got the highest electricity bill I've ever gotten in my whole life.
As I’ve been saying for a long time here, you cannot power modern civilization on wind, solar, and unicorn farts. It cannot be done without a massive reduction in living standards.
And the push to electric vehicles without a plan for generation, transmission, and distribution system upgrades is completely insane. The Green extremists are going to cause a LOT of pain if their policies continue to be adopted.
Sadly we’ve got a huge idiot crisis too making things worse.
Mitsubishi opened up a few plants in America to build transformers but have not been able to make many units. A lot of labor and regulatory problems. Materials logistics as well.
None of this is an epiphany. It's been 30 years in the making. The things are blowing like popcorn every day.
The thought processes behind even this relatively well reasoned article bother me. Notice there is no longer any concept of a free market finding and incorporating best solutions which must clearly vary from area to area. Everything is about control, and the author assumes we will transition to green energy regardless.
I submit the free market is the only way to go. We have to free up our energy producing industries to figure this out. If a transition to 100% renewables is both possible and economical, it will occur gradually in time.
Government IS the problem. The politicians and leftists pushing total government control of nearly every aspect of our economy is going to create massive disruptions and civil strife. Of course that may be their true plan.
Green extremism is a movement sown by China to destabilize America’s industrial capacity and economy. Right on schedule I’d say. Killing us with our own stupidity and greed with the universities and politicians they bribed. Toss in Blackrock too. You’ll freak as you peel that onion.
Amen.
First thing a new president would need to do in my opinion would be to tell the “green energy”people to sit down, shut up & never speak again unless they are spoken to. These troublemakers have already caused more problems than they can ever be worth.
I bought a solar system for my house last year to suit most of my needs cheaper than energy bought through Dim policies. A perfect solution? Of course not. But it works better than when the Dims force utilities to go solar because they have little incentive to make it work as well for us as mine works for me strictly from the fact that I'm incentivized to make my own life better. So far it's met my primary goal -- greatly reducing my costs to give me a hedge against rampant energy inflation.
Imagine a trillion plus invested in our country instead of that shithole afghanistan.
Name me a president who hasn’t had to fire cabinet members or staffers during their first year in office? It’s a must do to set boundaries based on your mandate to govern as president. If you don’t and are weak and malleable even among your own staff, they will walk all over you...the fool.
Sorry. So yes you are right. I just got caught up in your being right.
Biden hadn’t fired one person in the Whitehouse. Not that he even knows who they are......granted.
It's likely the Management of Team Biden has made it clear to him he doesn't have "hire and fire" privileges - and they have made sure Jill reminds him of that every morning.
Got the estimate yesterday to replace very old a/c ducts in the attic. Cost is $750 more than the estimate last year. No upgraded/insulated duct material available. It will take months to get the duct material for the job. Eeesh.
You've nailed it.
Every good manager knows you need to fire as many as it takes until they get in line. Unfortunately Joe has no idea what line he should stand in or who’s fault it is if he’s lost?
Good luck. You may not be able to afford it next year.
The politicians and leftists pushing total government control of nearly every aspect of our economy...
It may be that once a candidate wins the ego-inflating experience of winning an election, and then becomes accustomed to the perks of office, they come to believe it is in your best interest, and theirs, for them to micro-manage much of your life.
Electric vehicles are batteries on wheels.
The Ford electric pickup can power your house as well as get charged from your house I believe.
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