A Russian Chinese war would be a conflict between the world's two best militaries. Russia has successfully defended against Western invasions under Charles XII, Napoleon, and Hitler, but was overrun by the Mongols, who invaded from the east. In modern times, Russia lost a war with Japan in 1906, but defeated them in the 1939 Manchurian Mongolian border war.
It’s about ideology right now. The Soviet Union never collapsed, it just reorganized, and is now coming back together in its old form. China has gotten much stronger than during Cold War 1 times. Communism is on the march worldwide.
“If China turns against Russia, that would mean that the CCP has turned toward the U.S. and NATO in an alliance to ultimately eliminate Russia as much more than the old Muscovy.”
China will do what they want. They do not need the US or NATO as an ally if they choose to invade and annex the RFE. All they need us to do is shut up and stay out of their way. Which we will especially if Russia is mired down in an unpopular imperialistic war in Ukraine.
“There is little that the West can do to save Ukraine from a Russian invasion”
Sure there is. NATO has sent Ukraine ~3,000 anti-tank missiles, ~1,500 anti-aircraft missiles, uniforms, optics, at least one Patriot missile battery, 100,000 assorted small arms, and ~500,000,000 rounds of ammunition. Rumors of anti-personnel mines are also circling around.
Russia might invade Ukraine but their tankers and attack helicopters are going to pay in blood.
“Our military has not won a major war since 1945”
We won the Cold War. Seriously, we defeated the Soviet Empire without using nuclear weapons and that is a HUGE victory! We freed half of Europe from Russian domination by bankrupting them and countering them at their every move.
We’ll win this renewed Cold War because Russia cannot rebuild their Soviet levels of power without leveraging their former slave states. They lack the economic power and they also lack the will of their people to do this. It took fifteen years for Russia to build one Akula class sub! The Admiral Kuznetsov has been in refit for five years and the delays have caused critical problems because the idled equipment aboard the ship needs to be replaced and there are no spare parts. In short, Russia doesn’t have an aircraft carrier.
Seriously, Russia is a declining power and while Putin has slowed this decline for now his misadventures in Ukraine are causing economic damage that will inevitably hit the Russian military harder than the USA every could.
“A Russian Chinese war would be a conflict between the world’s two best militaries.”
No, if China invades the RFE while the Russian military is tied up in Ukraine it will be a conflict between at least two Chinese armies and at best a few brigades and divisions of the Eastern Military District. I say that because in a repeat of Zapad 2017 the Russian forces in Belarus right now include at least 40% of the EMD forces. Putin is taking quite a gamble right now and trusting his Chinese ‘friends’ not to seize the RFE while its defenses have been stripped to the minimum.
We have no need to win a war overseas. We just need to maintain our navy so we can maintain the freedom of the seas so we can continue to trade with the world.