“If China turns against Russia, that would mean that the CCP has turned toward the U.S. and NATO in an alliance to ultimately eliminate Russia as much more than the old Muscovy.”
China will do what they want. They do not need the US or NATO as an ally if they choose to invade and annex the RFE. All they need us to do is shut up and stay out of their way. Which we will especially if Russia is mired down in an unpopular imperialistic war in Ukraine.
“There is little that the West can do to save Ukraine from a Russian invasion”
Sure there is. NATO has sent Ukraine ~3,000 anti-tank missiles, ~1,500 anti-aircraft missiles, uniforms, optics, at least one Patriot missile battery, 100,000 assorted small arms, and ~500,000,000 rounds of ammunition. Rumors of anti-personnel mines are also circling around.
Russia might invade Ukraine but their tankers and attack helicopters are going to pay in blood.
“Our military has not won a major war since 1945”
We won the Cold War. Seriously, we defeated the Soviet Empire without using nuclear weapons and that is a HUGE victory! We freed half of Europe from Russian domination by bankrupting them and countering them at their every move.
We’ll win this renewed Cold War because Russia cannot rebuild their Soviet levels of power without leveraging their former slave states. They lack the economic power and they also lack the will of their people to do this. It took fifteen years for Russia to build one Akula class sub! The Admiral Kuznetsov has been in refit for five years and the delays have caused critical problems because the idled equipment aboard the ship needs to be replaced and there are no spare parts. In short, Russia doesn’t have an aircraft carrier.
Seriously, Russia is a declining power and while Putin has slowed this decline for now his misadventures in Ukraine are causing economic damage that will inevitably hit the Russian military harder than the USA every could.
“A Russian Chinese war would be a conflict between the world’s two best militaries.”
No, if China invades the RFE while the Russian military is tied up in Ukraine it will be a conflict between at least two Chinese armies and at best a few brigades and divisions of the Eastern Military District. I say that because in a repeat of Zapad 2017 the Russian forces in Belarus right now include at least 40% of the EMD forces. Putin is taking quite a gamble right now and trusting his Chinese ‘friends’ not to seize the RFE while its defenses have been stripped to the minimum.
Fascinating stuff. In keeping with the late Rush Limbaugh's disdain of the "conventional wisdom" of China taking advantage of Brandon's weakness, etc., to invade Taiwan after this year's Winter Olympics, I'd like to throw some non-conventional wisdom out there.
Every Han Chinese child learns the adage about the "Battle between the clam and the snipe [a long-billed seabird]." According to this story, the snipe (i.e. Russia) intends to eat the clam (Ukraine), but the clam "clamps down" on the sea bird's long bill, causing a stalemate. A passing fisherman (China) says: "food for me," and take both defenseless creatures.
A prefect opportunity for China to take the RFE, while the West's attention is focussed on Ukraine, thousands of miles to the west. Throw in some Sun Tzu-esque deception--a feint by the PRC aimed at Taiwan. Say 20 jets and a few warships, while sending the real invasion fleet and Chinese marines to take Vladivostok, while sending a major ground force north from Heilongjiang.
Just an idea. Who knows what will happen?
1. This happens and Russia uses nukes.
2. This happens, Putin gets tossed and Russia joins NATO, US and Russia fight China together. India rolls in as well.
3. This doesn’t happen, as China fears 1 and 2, and sees the West as a greater threat than Russia. Also, China and Russia are ideological breathers (Communists). Russia and China don’t fight each other until the US and the West are gone, and India is eliminated as well.