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Is Omicron a New Wave or a Parallel Pandemic?
New York Magazine ^ | 23 Dec 2021 | David Wallace-Wells

Posted on 12/24/2021 8:02:56 PM PST by BeauBo

There are also reasons to believe the models may be dramatically overestimating the ultimate size of the wave, and perhaps reason to believe that, thanks to its immune-escape properties, the Omicron wave may be qualitatively different than those produced by earlier strains...

the Omicron wave has been defined primarily by breakthrough infections and reinfection, rather than new illnesses among the unvaccinated and unprotected. Three-quarters of early U.S. Omicron cases were among the vaccinated or already infected...

This doesn’t mean that Omicron prefers the vaccinated, or that the vaccinated are more vulnerable to infection than the unvaccinated, but that the immune evasiveness of the new variant gives it a much bigger relative competitive advantage over Delta among those with prior immune protection than among the unprotected, among whom it may not be more transmissible than Delta at all...

Delta and Omicron may be sufficiently distinct that the growth of Omicron doesn’t mean the end of Delta, but that the two ongoing waves are running basically in parallel...

it may only be among the vaccinated or previously infected that the new variant has a significant advantage...

This hypothesis may help explain both why Omicron is producing a significant reduction in severe outcomes, at least for now, and why the ongoing Delta wave that preceded it does not yet appear to be receding all that quickly...

Omicron is growing very rapidly, but it seems to be growing on top of Delta, rather than replacing it, which suggests that they might be occupying different spaces.

(Excerpt) Read more at nymag.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: covid; omicron
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In addition to the "Simultaneous Wave Hypothesis" in this article (That Omicron is on top of Delta cases, rather than out-competing Delta), this long article also discusses the possibility that Omicron is not really that much more infectious overall than Delta, but just that it infects much more quickly.

"...a shorter generation time, which many of us are speculating about now.

That would mean that what appeared at first to be a genuine transmission advantage could just reflect how fast the reproduction time was. In other words, we thought each Omicron case was infecting more new people than each Delta case had. But it may be that it was just cycling through that transmission cycle much more quickly, so in a period of a week, say, we had twice as many links in the chain of transmission — not that each link was linking out to more chains.

It would mean that you could kind of go up quickly, but also come down quickly."

1 posted on 12/24/2021 8:02:56 PM PST by BeauBo
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To: BeauBo

The O-my-CON was the CCP’s attempt to cancel Christmas.


2 posted on 12/24/2021 8:11:00 PM PST by lightman (I am a binary Trinitarian. Deal with it!)
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To: BeauBo
It's a bloody cold.

Take a decongestant, wash it down with chicken soup and get some extra rest.

3 posted on 12/24/2021 8:12:53 PM PST by Harmless Teddy Bear (add a dab of lavender in milk, leave town with an orange and pretend you're laughing with it)
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To: BeauBo

The left is quickly losing the narrative.

Might as make it a quadratic virus that can only be solved by taking the nano-juice.


4 posted on 12/24/2021 8:16:13 PM PST by eyedigress (Trump is my President! )
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To: BeauBo

5 posted on 12/24/2021 8:19:05 PM PST by logi_cal869 (-cynicus the "concern troll" a/o 10/03/2018 /!i!! &@$%&*(@ -)
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To: BeauBo
Is Omicron a New Wave or a Parallel Pandemic?

It's yet another in a long line of Democrat BS.

6 posted on 12/24/2021 8:20:51 PM PST by JennysCool ("It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." - Mark Twain)
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To: BeauBo

Straight from the world god.

“Omi”

Luciferian doing everything he can to imitate.

“The Theo who made the world and all (panta Grk.) (pan)
......for In Him we live (zoe) and move (kinesis) and ARE (essense)...”

Acts 16:24-31


7 posted on 12/24/2021 8:22:58 PM PST by Varsity Flight ( "War by the prophesies set before you." I Timothy 1:18)
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To: BeauBo

the writer:

Wikipedia: David Wallace-Wells...known for his writings on climate change. He wrote the 2017 essay “The Uninhabitable Earth”, which he later expanded into the 2019 book The Uninhabitable Earth...work has appeared in New York magazine, where he is a deputy editor. He also writes for The Guardian...
He has said that he is optimistic about the earth’s environmental future, but he remains cautious...
Writing in The Guardian in 2021, Wallace‑Wells argues that the scale of climate change adaptation required globally is unprecedented. Indeed, Wallace‑Wells opines that “the world’s vanguard infrastructure is failing in today’s climate, which is the most benign we will ever see again”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Wallace-Wells

a mention in the socialist New Statesman. Wallace-Wells the “optimist” when it comes to manmade gloBULL warming!

17 Nov: New Statesman: Should the left abandon the Green New Deal?
There are serious questions to ask, but Aditya Chakrabortty’s critique fails to convince.
By Richard Seymour
By 2050, global coal use would have to decline by 97 per cent, oil use by 87 per cent, and natural gas use by 74 per cent.
If this doesn’t happen, the environmentalist ***DAVID WALLACE-WELLS writes, “hundreds of millions of lives” will be at stake. Almost “all coral reefs would die out, wildfires and heat waves would sweep across the planet annually, and the interplay between drought and flooding and temperature would mean that the world’s food supply would become dramatically less secure”.
https://www.newstatesman.com/ideas/2021/11/should-the-left-abandon-the-green-new-deal


8 posted on 12/24/2021 8:25:42 PM PST by MAGAthon
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To: BeauBo

9 posted on 12/24/2021 8:26:22 PM PST by logi_cal869 (-cynicus the "concern troll" a/o 10/03/2018 /!i!! &@$%&*(@ -)
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To: BeauBo

Run parallel and combine, Delta, Omicron, and Domicron.


10 posted on 12/24/2021 8:35:16 PM PST by BusterDog
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To: eyedigress

“The left is quickly losing the narrative”.

That’s for certain.


11 posted on 12/24/2021 8:42:40 PM PST by laplata
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To: MAGAthon

I am not buying the premises of this article, but I can’t reject them either, at this point.

Plausible hypotheses, but time will tell.

The author’s pseudoscience opinions on “climate change” certainly don’t strengthen his credibility.

I looked up the main source for the article (Deepti Gurdasani), and she seems pretty political (Leftist) as well.


12 posted on 12/24/2021 8:48:54 PM PST by BeauBo
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To: logi_cal869

The chart you posted @ #5, seems to show Omicron moving without a corresponding slowdown among the other variants, as if they are not competing, but rather are behaving more like separate diseases (when it comes to transmission).

I think there is more cross-immunity with Omicron and the others when it comes to severity, but they don’t seem to impede each other that much, in terms of infection.


13 posted on 12/24/2021 8:55:55 PM PST by BeauBo
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To: BeauBo

My bet is it’s the same basic bug, but it’s losing it’s power to cause serious illness. I.E. like all past flues it’s dying out - the Spanish Flu took a couple years before it petered out until just it’s “A” strain great grandchildren are left as run of the mill, garden variety flues today.


14 posted on 12/24/2021 9:01:33 PM PST by LouieFisk ( )
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To: BeauBo

Bookmark


15 posted on 12/24/2021 9:10:28 PM PST by kelly4c
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To: BeauBo

Its a cold


16 posted on 12/24/2021 9:19:33 PM PST by roving
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To: BeauBo

Because of scientific studies that were done in Hong Kong, we know that the virus replicates 70 times faster in the earlier stages of infection, before it gets to the actual lung tissue, where it for some reason replicates much less.

That is why it is more contagious, and also why it is less severe. A lot depends on the actual biology.


17 posted on 12/24/2021 9:25:51 PM PST by firebrand
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To: logi_cal869
From nextstrain.org


18 posted on 12/24/2021 9:44:30 PM PST by ProtectOurFreedom (81 million votes...and NOT ONE "Build Back Better" hat)
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To: lightman

Omicrap.


19 posted on 12/24/2021 9:47:40 PM PST by Salamander ("Salamander has barbaric tendencies" /Gundog)
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To: BeauBo

In South Africa it definitely displaced Delta. It became 98%. Less so in the U.K., but heading that direction in the U.S.


20 posted on 12/24/2021 9:49:16 PM PST by nickcarraway
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