Posted on 11/02/2021 11:27:12 AM PDT by CWW
If you are a Virginia voter, report your anecdotal experience. Is turnout in your precinct heavy, normal, abysmal? Are you in a Red, Blue, or Purple precinct? How's the energy? Any voting irregularities?
Because it is never wrong by the time the market closes.
We'll find out soon enough.
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2021?amp%3Bamp%3Bgeo=All&%3Bamp%3Bgeo_type=statewide&%3Bamp%3Bstate=VA&demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22modeledParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&state=VA
Working the polls here right now in Commie Fairfax. Sort of surprised who is taking Republican sample ballots.
Considering Youngkin commands a 10-15% advantage among the indies, when all this fleshes out among the EVs (D=583k, R=330K, I=253k), it comes down to McAuliffe (at the most, and that assumes all dems votes for him) starting tonight with a lead of less than about 230k. That assumes only a 10% advantage among the indies for Youngkin and all dems voting for McAuliffe.
Considering many estimates show Youngkin’s ED advantage to be around 66%, that deficit can be made up easily.
TargetEarly misfires constantly. Real data from them showed only 7% turnout for 18 to 29 yo of the 1.1 million early votes. Almost double that percentage in 2020.
Predictit.org went from 57-46 to 44-60 fix is in
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
would that be from mcaullife 57 youngkin 46... to 44 mcauliff 60 youngkin?
or visa versa?
Anything is possible.
To my mind, no one should know those stats at this point. That tells me they can be manipulated.
Because it is never wrong by the time the market closes.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Because it is never wrong by the time the market closes the vote counting stops.
We can all agree that the predictors aren’t all that reliable, that is for sure. But they’re all we have until the votes are known. As an aside, I have been reading that the youngsters are not highly motivated by either party right now - not enough “excitement,” for lack of a better term.
I’m in Richmond, and there seems to be more enthusiasm for Youngkin over McAuliffe. The problem is northern VA which is all blue, and lots of government workers.
I’m in Richmond, and there seems to be more enthusiasm for Youngkin over McAuliffe. The problem is northern VA which is all blue, and lots of government workers.
would that be from mcaullife 57 youngkin 46... to 44 mcauliff 60 youngkin?
It’s very volatile still. Currently 50-55 so it has tightened back up some.
That is awesome. Good for you. I would really have to work to keep my trap shut, and face straight, at that task.
Heart rate monitor. Lull period now. Wait for actual results soon enough.
Wisconsin here. North of Milwaukee and Madison, we are pretty 'normal' here, too. But one apartment building down there equals 2 or 3 towns like mine, so the whole state looks purple. And even in my township, there were more votes for Biden (really, just against President Trump) than I would have predicted.
Agreed. Didn’t trust the +8 poll from Fox. I’m just going by the real data from TargetEarly. Their “modeled” electorate fooled me in 2018 and 2020 so pay little attention to that. 7% of the 1.1 million early voters are 18 to 19 yo. It was 13.2% in 2020. We’ll see if that means anything.
Voted in rural central VA at about 11am, in the rain. One guy voting when my wife and I arrived. One person coming in as we left. Weak turnout by prior standards. Early voting is probably picking off a lot of the volume.
Some interesting news.
At one precinct in Augusta County, Virginia, chief election officer Lesley Piner said she had to ask the county for more ballots before lunchtime, having run out by 11 a.m.
This is very unusual for the Precinct (they never run out). Trump won Augusta County with 72%. This is a very good sign.
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