Posted on 10/26/2021 4:47:57 AM PDT by Kaslin
RICHMOND, Virginia -- Some of the many overlooked but critically important offices in the American political landscape are the ones held by state legislators and members of general assemblies. These are the people who are most like us, the ones who live in neighborhoods close to ours, sit in the pews on Sundays and attend the local high school football games with everyone else.
They are the elected officials who rarely have an entourage but have as much of a vested interest as you in ensuring that roads and bridges in your town are safe, because they have to drive those same roads.
When they are on the ballot, their elections often give us hints on the most granular level, either of how the electorate feels about each political party long before a big national election or of whether something is brewing that the press and politicians are missing.
Last November, when resident Joe Biden narrowly defeated then-President Donald Trump, the blue (Democratic) wave predicted to happen down-ballot along with Biden defeating Trump in double digits never materialized. In fact, if you paid attention in down-ballot races in state legislative bodies across the country, there was indeed a red (Republican) wave instead.
In Pennsylvania, where Biden won, there were no Biden coattails down-ballot. Democrats lost five contested state Senate seats they were expected to win, along with two upset losses in statewide races.
In fact, despite having an excess amount of money from Democratic super PACs run by former Attorney General Eric Holder and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg dumped into races across the country, Democrats actually lost ground in important state legislative races from the Rust Belt to the Arizona Sun Belt.
These were races they all bragged that they would win.
Those results were telling us something most didn't pay attention to, in the same way that too few people paid attention here in Richmond four years ago, when Virginia Republicans' 32-seat majority in the House of Delegates almost completely evaporated in 2017.
By the time the next off-year election rolled around in 2019, the Republicans' by-then flimsy 51-49 seat majority turned into a 45-55 deficit, putting Democrats in the catbird seat.
The race here in 2017 told us that college-educated, center-right suburban voters wanted nothing to do with anything associated with Trump's comportment. For them, it had infected any attachment they felt for conservative policies.
While much of the media is paying attention to the gubernatorial race here, it will be interesting to see if these same center-right suburban voters are telling us how they feel about the state of things in the world. In short, have the media and the Democrats been effective in still making everything and everyone that is a Republican a mini version of Trump that will storm the state capitol on any given day?
Or are center-right suburban voters unsatisfied with how the Democrats have handled the power voters gave them?
All 100 state House seats are on the ballot. Will voters tell Democrats they are seen not as a governing body but as a party with a bad overreach problem?
As in 2020 nationally, Democrats running for the Virginia House also have a sizable cash advantage over the Republicans, and they have had luminaries such as former President Barack 0bama coming in to remind voters to vote straight Democratic. Then again, ask former Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds how much that helped him in his run for governor in 2009, when voters were reacting to national Democrats' supermajority (and superoverreach) in that election cycle.
There is a possibility the Republicans could win one of the five suburban House seats Democrats are defending; there is also the possibility that Democrats gain new seats.
If it is a real wave, though, Democrats could lose all five, and their counterparts in Washington could put the brakes on their overreach. But don't count on it: Washington Democrats, to their own subsequent detriment, didn't flinch in 2009 when their party lost the governors' offices both here in Virginia and in New Jersey.
In short, the spending continued, and so did the growth of government -- and within a year, House Democrats in Washington were handed the biggest loss for a party in a midterm election since 1938. And by 2014, Republicans won a record number of state legislative races, thus controlling state legislative bodies in 66 of the 99 state chambers nationwide.
By 2016, Trump won a presidency people somehow never saw coming despite all of the evidence from the ground up.
Sometimes, local elections tell us everything we need to know: A move by an inch here or there for the Republicans in this very blue state should tell Democrats a lot more than they appear willing to hear.
No doubt Dims are digging their own graves behind Brandon.
Question is will the Republic survive the damage they are inflicting.
Salena Zito just oozes “beltway” when she describes Democrats communist violence intimidation as “overreach”.
Townhall should fire her communist ass.
There might be anti democrat feelings out there, but there is also election fraud we have to deal with.
The actual voting results in 2020 showed the national anti democrat mood. See where that got us? Expect more of the same everywhere and in every election. The Dems won’t tip their hand for ‘22 and go full bore fraud mode but no way they allow a change in the Virginia regime.
I think you’ll see both VA and NJ turning red... (I think we might see both R win next week..).
I’d love for it to happen. I think there’s a greater chance for the legislatures to move toward “red”, but the governor races will remain blue. They’ll be able to get the “turnout” in the big blue areas to keep them in power.
IMHO, the Rats will win in Va, just like they did in Ca. Good old fashion cheating.
It’ll depend on what Dominion sez...
I live in one of the metro-DC swing districts, the 50th, which consists of Manassas City and adjacent Prince William county. There are probably 90-95k people in this district today (we did not redraw legislative boundaries because the Census data came out too late).
There are a number of outside groups that are pouring money into the campaign of the ‘Rat candidate, Michelle Maldonado, who beat incumbent Bernie Sanders acolyte Lee Jin Carter in the primary. Michelle is Che Guevara in a pantsuit. There is a substantial Spanish speaking population in this district, which has grown markedly since the distract was last drawn in 2010. I’m guessing that she’ll have had over $1 million spent on her behalf by groups such as CASA
Our candidate, a local dentist named Steve Fleickhardt, has run an invisible campaign; I only saw one yard sign for him in my neighborhood.
Yet, if Glenn Youngkin manages to shift 1,000 votes in this district and has coattails, our candidate might win.
The ‘Rats are pouring money into other districts around here. The GOP candidates have only recently put up ads on cable TV (I have Verizon FIOS).
I’d have to guess that McAuliffe is behind, because the national ‘Rats are frantic. Barack Hussein Obama II did them no favors by coming into the state and calling the public school calamities around here “fake”. I think I understand why Biden wanted to get his tax and spend bills passed this week; because if the ‘Rats suffer large losses here next week, this might scare off enough congressional ‘Rats from voting for Biden’s bills.
I saw one column that went district by district in Virginia and claimed that if Youngkin wins by 5 or more points, as many as 15 delegate seats could flip. As it stands, we need to flip 6 seats to get a 51-49 majority.
The state senate is not up for election until 2023; it is controlled by the ‘Rats 21-19.
It will all depend on how the Domion’s machines are programed.
I suppose we will find out.
why do you think Salena Zito is a liberal just because she works for CNN? I think you are ridiculous.
When the totalitarians of the left have engineered a situation where my employer gives me the ultimatum take the WuFlu clot-shot or lose my employment and my children suffer, where they force racist garbage down my children's throats with my tax money, and when they are trying to force my minor children to get the clot-shot when there is absolutely no justification it is not "overreach" but pure evil.
Reading your comment calling my anger ridiculous just points out how dim you are. This is not about differences in policy, it is about freedom versus slavery and if you are too dim to tell the difference then you are part of the problem.
I am well aware Kaslin that you are always ready to pull the trigger on moderator banishment like a good GOPe leftist so I must craft my comment with great care. Towing the Uniparty line is not a good look for you because anyone that still thinks that these are normal times is either vapid, delusional, or deceitful 😎.
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