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CIA warned of rapid Afghanistan collapse. So why did U.S. get it so wrong?
NBC News / Comcast ^ | August 17, 2021 | By Ken Dilanian, Mike Memoli, Courtney Kube and Josh Lederman

Posted on 08/18/2021 4:03:45 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer

As the Taliban began seizing provinces across Afghanistan in recent weeks, the CIA’s intelligence assessments began to warn in increasingly stark terms about the potential for a rapid, total collapse of the Afghan military and government, current and former U.S. officials told NBC News.

In the end, the CIA’s description of what a worst-case scenario could look like “was pretty close to what happened,” one former official briefed on the matter said.

The White House won’t confirm whether President Joe Biden ever received such a dire forecast from his national security team. The president himself appeared to dispute a month ago that intelligence suggested the increasing likelihood that the Afghan military would fold.

But it is precisely that outcome that has emerged as one of the administration’s chief arguments to justify the president standing by his decision to end the U.S. military operation in Afghanistan.

CIA officials were taken aback by the rapid pace of the military’s pullout, including the dead-of-night withdrawal from Bagram Air Base in July, according to the former official. And many officials are expressing annoyance at the State Department, which officials say was extremely slow in processing the paperwork needed to deal with Afghan translators and others eligible for resettlement.

“Interagency coordination, especially among warfighters, diplomats and intelligence officers, is critical at times like this,” the former official said. “Obviously, it was deficient.”

(Excerpt) Read more at nbcnews.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: afghanistan; bidenforeignpolicy; cia; leaks; taliban; wediditjoe
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

> the CIA’s description of what a worst-case scenario could look like “was pretty close to what happened,” ... <

That implies that many different scenarios were considered. Kabul could fall in a week. Kabul could fall in a month. Kabul could fall in a year.

Good job, CIA. Not.


21 posted on 08/18/2021 4:25:05 AM PDT by Leaning Right (I have already previewed or do not wish to preview this composition.)
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To: HypatiaTaught
This was their plan... Remember this is Obama’s Valerie Jarret’s third term.

Fixed it for you. Hussein is not that much smarter than Biden. Neither one of them are running anything….

This just might be their ‘excuse’ to install Kamala and then we are really in trouble.

22 posted on 08/18/2021 4:26:21 AM PDT by Envisioning (Carry safe, always carry, everyday, everywhere.)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

Because they either don’t care or setting up for us to have to go back in again later.


23 posted on 08/18/2021 4:28:48 AM PDT by glimmerman70
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To: Envisioning
First we had Holder supplying the cartels with automatic weapons, now we have the current administration arming the Taliban with god knows what…..

Seems to be a pattern. None of it good for America.

24 posted on 08/18/2021 4:31:14 AM PDT by Envisioning (Carry safe, always carry, everyday, everywhere.)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer
So why did U.S. get it so wrong?

The "U.S." didn't get it wrong, it was the incompetent bozos on Team Biden that got it wrong

Let's make sure the true culprits are coorectly blamed here


25 posted on 08/18/2021 4:33:21 AM PDT by canuck_conservative
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

Here’s my reason for the bad decision: Biden wanted to get out by Sep ‘11 regardless of evidence that doing so would be a mistake.


26 posted on 08/18/2021 4:34:09 AM PDT by cymbeline
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

Then the CIA really messed up if nobody is listening to them. They had a president who would have pulled us to out of that country with our pride intact and our citizens safely evacuated, but the CIA pulled every string to get rid of him and promoted the catatonic Biden.

They are also untrusted by the American people.


27 posted on 08/18/2021 4:36:25 AM PDT by McGavin999 (biden is not my president )
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

28 posted on 08/18/2021 4:40:42 AM PDT by marcusmaximus
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

US didn’t get it wrong. biden got it wrong. biden is NOT the US!


29 posted on 08/18/2021 4:42:04 AM PDT by I want the USA back (We have more to fear from our government than from the bug that the chicoms made for us. )
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To: Col Frank Slade

As I watch everything unfold, I remember one key point: Biden is a puppet. None of this is about him. It’s all about his handlers. Either they are utterly incompetent, or they know exactly what they’re doing. There are no other options. But putting the focus on Biden is, in my opinion, a huge mistake.


30 posted on 08/18/2021 4:51:55 AM PDT by cuban leaf (We killed our economy and damaged our culture. In 2021 we will pine for the salad days of 2020.)
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To: cymbeline

“Biden wanted to get out by Sep ‘11 regardless of evidence that doing so would be a mistake.”


Yep. they wanted a dog and pony show where Joe Stolen could claim victory on 9/11. Just like they wanted to declare they had saved us all from the plague.

All hat, no cattle.


31 posted on 08/18/2021 4:51:58 AM PDT by Not_Who_U_Think
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

BIDEN got it wrong, NBC. The blame lies with him.


32 posted on 08/18/2021 4:55:52 AM PDT by madison10
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To: Fester Chugabrew

This article submitted by CIA as CYA.


Yeah, that was my take too. They only warned of the rapid collapse as it was happening.

But, of course, NBC shovels this crap as “news”.


33 posted on 08/18/2021 4:56:46 AM PDT by rbg81 (Truth is stranger than fiction)
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To: rbg81
But, of course, NBC shovels this crap as “news”.

Also notice the word parsing and key facts. Never directly blaming biden, only the US.

34 posted on 08/18/2021 5:00:50 AM PDT by New Perspective (#NotMyPresident -Proud father of a son with DS & fighting to keep him off biden's death panels.)
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To: Col Frank Slade

He saw them. His admin had views that there would be a parade and ceremonies as they left on Sep 11.


35 posted on 08/18/2021 5:04:48 AM PDT by pas
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To: Fester Chugabrew
Exactly. Leaked anonymous sources so they can't be grilled on what they say.

The stupid reporters dutifully report it because they want to please their phony “sources”.

36 posted on 08/18/2021 5:06:03 AM PDT by Fido969 (45 is Superman!)
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To: cuban leaf

Biden is the face of the DNC. If they don’t like their face, they can remove it.


37 posted on 08/18/2021 5:09:13 AM PDT by Mashood
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To: rbg81

Lets be realistic. Most freepers could have told you this would happen

I have to believe CIA knew too.

Did they tell biden? Probably.

What about Milley? Did he know? Surely he did

Something is wrong in this whole thing

They knew but did it anyway


38 posted on 08/18/2021 5:10:25 AM PDT by RummyChick (Bagram was the most logical exit point. Stand up and justify your decision (hat tip Larrytown))
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To: Fester Chugabrew

“This article submitted by CIA as CYA.”

Exactly. They told him in June, it could take up to a year. Then, as the Taliban advanced, it could be months. When they were knocking on Kabul’s door, it could be days. This is what I call after the fact intelligence. More commentary than intelligence. Telling people what already everyone knows...which is no intelligence. Kind of like the typical stock analyst hedging and telling you a stock could accelerate up rapidly in price. Then, after the stock price crashes, advising, on the other hand, it could have gone down due to unforeseen circumstances


39 posted on 08/18/2021 5:16:50 AM PDT by chuckee
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

Note the headline..... “How did the U.S. get it so wrong?...........NOT how did Biden get it so wrong?”

Biden can do no wrong...Trump could do no right according to the press.


40 posted on 08/18/2021 5:17:35 AM PDT by xenia ("In times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." George Orwell)
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