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A Resistant SARS-CoV-2 Variant Could Emerge Any Time. Here's What Raises The Risk
https://www.sciencealert.com ^ | 30 JULY 2021 | MIKE MCRAE

Posted on 07/30/2021 7:52:07 AM PDT by Red Badger

With hopes pinned on mass vaccination programs seeing an eventual end to the COVID-19 pandemic, citizens around the world are lining up for a jab.

So far, efforts to curb the outbreak by spreading immunity this way seem to be working - but according to new research, right now might also be the worst time to let down our guard.

A team of scientists led by researchers from the Institute of Science and Technology Austria calculated the risk of a vaccine-resistant strain emerging under different scenarios according to a modified model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Central to each scenario was the rate of vaccine uptake within a population of 10 million over three years, and the extent to which non-pharmaceutical interventions such as mask wearing and social distancing make a difference.

Unsurprisingly, a rapid roll-out where everybody receives their full quota of approved immunizations in the shortest time would leave the deadly coronavirus few opportunities to randomly develop antibody-resistant genes.

At the other end, having a mutating virus spread unfettered through a susceptible population gives the pathogen plenty of chances to roll the dice on fancy new talents that may help it jump between more hosts with greater efficiency.

We might imagine that the most perfidious kind of pathogen – one that would innovate to avoid our immune system in ever more insidious ways – would arise in a population where nobody is vaccinated.

"By contrast, a counterintuitive result of our analysis is that the highest risk of resistant strain establishment occurs when a large fraction of the population has already been vaccinated but the transmission is not controlled," the researchers conclude.

More specifically, in situations where an emergent strain is permitted to spread, its emergence occurs when around 60 percent of those model 10 million citizens have been fully immunized.

Having nearly two-thirds of a population with their full quota of vaccinations might seem like a good time to throw off the mask and hug loved ones in celebration of newfound freedom. Unfortunately, based on predictions under this model, there couldn't be a worse time to relax.

"One simple specific recommendation is to keep transmission low even when a large fraction of the population has been vaccinated by implementing acute non-pharmaceutical interventions (i.e. strict adherence to social distancing) for a reasonable period of time, to allow emergent lineages of resistant strains to go extinct," the researchers advise.

Every time a virus particle replicates itself, there's a chance its library of genes will tumble into a new configuration. Any one of those configurations could potentially outwit an immune system that's already received a vaccine, leaving us all unprotected once more.

We don't have to make this lottery win an easy one. Throwing as many obstacles as possible at the virus ensures it needs to chance upon every clever trick in the book before it gets to claim the big prize.

The goal of herd immunity is a shifting one, reliant on more factors than simply how many people have enough antibodies to ward off a significant infection.

Of course, vaccines play a central role in us all returning to a more intimate, less confined life. Hitting high numbers of immunized bodies as quickly as possible is vital. But the strategy isn't one where we can take our foot off the accelerator as we approach the finish line.

If anything, now is the time to double down, lest the hardships we've endured become sacrifices made in vain.

This research was published in Nature.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Government
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1 posted on 07/30/2021 7:52:07 AM PDT by Red Badger
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To: Red Badger

Isn’t it nice of them to tell us thier plans ahead of time?


2 posted on 07/30/2021 7:56:20 AM PDT by eyeamok (founded in cynicism, wrapped in sarcasm)
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To: Red Badger

Does anyone, I mean ANYONE, know, I mean KNOW, anything, I mean ANYTHING, about the virus or the vaccine?


3 posted on 07/30/2021 7:57:26 AM PDT by P-Marlowe (I identify as fully vaccinated. )
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To: Red Badger

The sky will be falling The sky will be falling


4 posted on 07/30/2021 7:57:49 AM PDT by antidemoncrat (somRead more at: https://economicti)
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To: Red Badger

Everyone lock yourselves in your basements now before it’s too late!


5 posted on 07/30/2021 8:03:37 AM PDT by ScottfromNJ
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To: Red Badger

To summarize the argument of this paper:
1) If everyone get’s vaccinated Covid will have nowhere to go and it will die off quickly.
2) If there remains a pool of the population that doesn’t get vaccinated Covid has a refuge to flee to, evolve, and likely break through to those vaccinated.

1 isn’t going to happen anytime soon, so expect 2 to be our future.


6 posted on 07/30/2021 8:06:59 AM PDT by Renfrew
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To: Red Badger

—”One simple specific recommendation is to keep transmission low even when a large fraction of the population has been vaccinated by implementing acute non-pharmaceutical interventions (i.e. strict adherence to social distancing) for a reasonable period of time, to allow emergent lineages of resistant strains to go extinct,” the researchers advise.

This begs the question of the utility of the vaccine during a pandemic. The solution offered is the same as if there were no vaccine at all. And with the vaccine, the solution must be also used to solve a new problem, the accelerated manifestation of viable and potent mutations.

The researchers would also have us take their models entirely too seriously. All a computer model does is to translate human understanding into code. If it has been proven to make successful predictions, we might begin to take it seriously when it makes a new prediction. Has it?


7 posted on 07/30/2021 8:08:13 AM PDT by rightwingcrazy (;-,)
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To: P-Marlowe
This is Not a Vaccine.

The jab of mRNA (synthesized strand of genetic material) is a package in a nano lipid or fat envelope delivered to a cell. It’s a medical device designed to stimulate a cell into becoming a pathogen creator by creating the known to be harmful S-1 spike protein.

Vaccine is a defined term in law and under CDC and FDA standards. A vaccine has to stimulate an immunity in the person receiving it. And it must also disrupt transmission. That’s not what this is. Even the drug manufacturers admit the jab or its mRNA does not stop transmission.

The jab is a treatment, but if it’s discussed as a treatment it would not get the sympathetic ear of public health officials because people would ask what other treatments there are. And alternative treatments would hamper FDA’s ability to issue emergency approval of the jabs as a vaccine.

Defining the narrative with the term vaccine is a sucker punch to open and free discourse. “Vaccine” throws the discussion into one of pro/con vaccine. The jab is a mechanical device (a bio-weapon) in the form of a very small packet of technology inserted into the human system to activate the cell to become a pathogenetic spike protein manufacturing site.

No basis exists to stipulate this is a vaccine. Simply put, this is a chemical pathogen device meant to unleash chemical pathogen production within a cell. It’s a medical device, not a drug. The jab is not a living or biological system, but rather a physical technology that just happens to come in the size of a molecular package.

Stated Objective

As to why the vaccine hype, the most important quote of this SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is a quote made in 2015 by Peter Daszak, head of Eco-Health Alliance and long-time collaborator with Dr. Fauci and NIAID on gain of function research.

In 2015, Duszak said,

“We need to increase public understanding of the need for medical countermeasures such as a pan-coronavirus vaccine. A key driver is the media, and the economics will follow the hype. We need to use that hype to our advantage, to get to the real issues. Investors will respond if they see profit at the end of the process.”

See Forum on Medical and Public Health Preparedness for Catastrophic Events; Forum on Drug Discovery, Development, and Translation; Forum on Microbial Threats; Board on Health Sciences Policy; Board on Global Health; Institute of Medicine; National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Rapid Medical Countermeasure Response to Infectious Diseases: Enabling Sustainable Capabilities Through Ongoing Public- and Private-Sector Partnerships: Workshop Summary. Washington (DC): National Academies Press (US); 2016 Feb 12. 6, Developing MCMs for Coronaviruses.

It’s not hard to figure that SARS-CoV-2 was not a public health crisis. This was an opportunistic marketing campaign to address a stated objective. And it’s the easiest thing to describe because they are the ones that said it. And the Occam’s Razor reality is they've said they needed to get the public to accept a pan-coronavirus vaccine countermeasure. And they needed the media to create the hype and investors would follow where they see profit.

When I see a person wearing a ski mask, waving a gun, and standing with a bag of money in front of a bank; I will make the assumption that that person might be a bank robber.

Similarly, if I have somebody who says we need to use the media to hype a medical countermeasure which is in fact the injection of a synthetic, recombinant chimeric protein developed off of a computer simulation, I’m actually going to listen to the motivation for why that might be being done; I will listen to the person doing the manipulation who says investors will follow where they see profit.

You do not have anything else you need to rely on to explain the events of the last 20 months than the actual statement of the actual perpetrators.

Novel Variant

According to the CDC,

To tell which variant might might be present in a specimen, scientists must perform whole genome sequencing (WGS) on that specimen. At this time, WGS is available for surveillance purposes only, not for individual diagnostic purposes.

Whole genome sequencing (WGS) described by CDC does not establish the genome sequence of the "delta variant" is novel from COVID-19.

There is no evidence that the delta variant is somehow distinct from anything else on GISAID. The fact that we are now looking for a thing/variant doesn’t mean that it is a thing/variant because we are looking at fragments of a strand of genetic material and the fact is that we can choose any fragment in the genome sequence and call it a thing/variant.

For example, I could come up with "omega variant" tomorrow and I could say I’m looking for this sub-strand of either DNA or mRNA, or even a protein, and I could run around the world saying “fear the omega variant.”

The problem is because of the nature of the way in which we currently sequence genomes, which is actually a compositing process – it’s what we can call in mathematics an interleaving – we don’t have any point of reference to actually to know whether or not the thing we’re looking at is in fact distinct from either clinical or even genomic sense.

And so we’re trapped in a world where unfortunately if you go and look at the papers that isolated the delta variant and actually asked the question is the delta variant anything other than a selection of a sequence in a systematic shift of an already disclosed other sequence, the answer is it’s just an alteration and when you start and stop what you call the reading frame. There is no evidence of any novel anything.

8 posted on 07/30/2021 8:09:59 AM PDT by Ahithophel (Communication is an art form susceptible to sudden technical failure)
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To: Red Badger
I heard last night that Washington D.C. did not have any COVID deaths in the three days before Nancy Pelosi mandated masks in the House of Representatives.
9 posted on 07/30/2021 8:11:00 AM PDT by zeestephen
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To: Renfrew
And then there is this:

"The goal of herd immunity is a shifting one, reliant on more factors than simply how many people have enough antibodies to ward off a significant infection.

Of course, vaccines play a central role in us all returning to a more intimate, less confined life. Hitting high numbers of immunized bodies as quickly as possible is vital. But the strategy isn't one where we can take our foot off the accelerator as we approach the finish line."

My takeaways from this paper: there is no herd immunity, everyone must get vaccinated, and thr blame falls squarely on unvaccinated including those who had Covid and recovered.

I can surmise: they're trying to make a fig leaf to justify forced vaccinations.

10 posted on 07/30/2021 8:15:01 AM PDT by Tench_Coxe
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To: Renfrew

I dont believe your second one. Vaccinated people are getting COVID so even everyone was vaccinated it could jump around and mutate depending on the hosts particular factors.


11 posted on 07/30/2021 8:16:28 AM PDT by RummyChick (To President Trump: https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3923111/posts)
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To: Renfrew

Number 1 is simply not true with our narrowly focused (single protein narrow) “vaccine”. Coronaviruses are notorious mutators, and we believed it would not find its way around such narrowly applied pressure? Foolish, absolutely foolish, heck what we are doing actually helped the mutation.


12 posted on 07/30/2021 8:19:57 AM PDT by walkingdead (We are sacrificing American youth's future on the altar of our own fear. And it is a travesty.)
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To: Red Badger

Bump


13 posted on 07/30/2021 8:23:25 AM PDT by sauropod (Amateurs built the ark; Professionals built the Titanic. Anon)
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To: Red Badger

There could be one hiding under your bed right now.


14 posted on 07/30/2021 8:24:11 AM PDT by Sirius Lee (They intend to murder us. Prep if you want to live and live like you are prepping for eternal life)
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To: Sirius Lee

Probably.................


15 posted on 07/30/2021 8:25:26 AM PDT by Red Badger (Homeless veterans camp in the streets while illegal aliens are put up in hotels.....................)
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To: walkingdead
"Coronaviruses are notorious mutators, and we believed it would not find its way around such narrowly applied pressure? Foolish, absolutely foolish, heck what we are doing actually helped the mutation." Exactly! We're only giving the virus more opportunities to mutate. Attempting to vaccinate in the midst of a pandemic is lunacy. Further proof that this is not a vaccine.
16 posted on 07/30/2021 8:30:50 AM PDT by Blurb2350 (posted from my 1500-watt blow dryer)
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To: Red Badger
(from the article):" A team of scientists led by researchers from the Institute of Science and Technology Austria calculated
the risk of a vaccine-resistant strain emerging under different scenarios according to a modified model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. "

They wrongly called it a vaccine. "
That is why I have called it a name : *Vaxxine*.
What the 'jab' is, in reality, called an "analgesic" .
It doesn't cure covid (!), it doesn't prevent covid (!),
it just ameliorates (masks) the virus symptoms to a more tolerable level in an attempt to reduce hospitalizations.

It's like taking aspirin for a head cold, or the flu.
Aspirin is an analgesic too !

17 posted on 07/30/2021 8:33:13 AM PDT by Tilted Irish Kilt
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To: Blurb2350

Yep. Apparently the great reset is a hard reset, as mankind seems to have forgotten everything about virology.


18 posted on 07/30/2021 8:40:13 AM PDT by walkingdead (We are sacrificing American youth's future on the altar of our own fear. And it is a travesty.)
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To: Red Badger

Have they found a vax for HIV yet? Interesting question isn’t it?


19 posted on 07/30/2021 9:08:00 AM PDT by Harpotoo (Being a socialist is a lot easier than having to WORK like the rest of US:-))
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To: Red Badger

With a kickstart from the vaccine of course.


20 posted on 07/30/2021 9:11:07 AM PDT by Openurmind (The ultimate test of a moral society is the kind of world it leaves to its children. ~ D. Bonhoeffer)
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