Posted on 07/21/2021 4:00:30 AM PDT by Kaslin
As the last presidential election approached, one could sense that something was wrong with the polls. The race felt tighter than the polls indicated, and specifically, Joe Biden's solid lead in the polls felt less solid than the surveys suggested. As they had in 2016, pollsters appeared on their way to underestimating the vote for Donald Trump. That did not mean Trump was actually leading the race, or that he would win -- and in the end, he did not -- but that the contest was closer than the polls said.
Now it turns out that feeling was right. And the polls were not only wrong, but more wrong than they had been in decades, including their dismal performance in 2016. A new report from the American Association for Public Opinion Research has found that national election polls overstated Biden's lead over Trump by 3.9 percentage points. And state-level polls were even worse, overstating Biden's lead by 4.3 points.
The polls' performances in statewide races -- campaigns for senator and governor -- were worse still. There, they overstated the Democratic candidates' lead by an average of 6 percentage points.
Notice something? The errors went in one direction: Exaggerating support for Democratic candidates. "Whether the candidates were running for president, senator or governor, poll margins overall suggested that Democratic candidates would do better and Republican candidates would do worse relative to the final certified vote," the report says.
So all those Republicans who said the polls were slanted against Trump and the GOP -- they were right.
Now, the question is why. Many Republicans will answer that it's simple -- that the polls were just biased. Indeed, don't ever discount the possibility that pure bias is at work. But a panel of political scientists and polling experts appointed by the AAPOR found that pollsters had managed to avoid repeating the mistake they made in 2016 -- undercounting voters without a college degree who voted for Trump. So if that wasn't the problem in 2020, what was?
The analysts do not think the issue was specifically Trump, or pollsters would have done better on the senators and governors races. They also couldn't find any specific group of voters that they missed. Instead, they focused on the theory that many Republicans distrust the media and pollsters so much that they would not respond to polling requests. Focusing only on those Republicans who were receptive to pollsters gave the polls a skewed view of GOP attitudes.
"That the polls overstated Biden's support in whiter, more rural and less densely populated states is suggestive (but not conclusive) that the polling error resulted from too few Trump supporters responding to polls," the report says. "A larger polling error was found in states with more Trump supporters."
In the end, though, the panel says it cannot definitively determine where pollsters made their mistake. "Identifying conclusively why polls overstated the Democratic-Republican margin ... appears to be impossible with the available data," the report concludes.
The bottom line: The polls were wrong, and they were consistently wrong in one direction, overstating Democratic support and understating Republican support. And the problem wasn't only about Trump.
That is an extremely troubling conclusion for the millions of Americans who follow politics. Media coverage of big races is often based on a general understanding of who is leading and who is trailing. And that understanding comes from public opinion polls. If a candidate has a 1-point lead over an opponent, for example, the coverage will present the race as virtually tied and highly competitive. If a candidate has a 6-point lead over an opponent, the coverage will present the leader as the dominant figure in the race. That can discourage supporters of the trailing candidate. And it all comes from polls.
And what if the polls are wrong -- not just a little wrong, but a lot wrong? Either the polls will be fixed, or we will have to find a different way to cover politics.
Byron York is a looser ...
The Republicans basically won everything that night, except the White House. Seems strange, doesn’t it (we all here know what really did happen)?
Polling is a complete joke.
Of course, elections have followed the same path now. For polling, you can ask people questions, you can make phone calls, you can do the “leg work” and then you go back to the office, make up whatever numbers you like, and publish a poll designed to persuade people to feel a certain way. It’s not predictive. It’s persuasive.
And the elections do the same thing. Elections don’t tell you how people voted. Election results persuade you that you ought to accept a Democrat as your overlord.
Polls designed to influence rather than inform.
Until the ultimate “poll”, the election itself, is no longer a fraud, any other poll is garbage.
Yeah?
How so?
The gubmint and pollsters have your social media meta data.
They know you better than you know yourself
They know which buttons to push to move your opinion in one direction.
The biased rigged polls are published to manipulate election outcomes.
Next, cancel culture.
The marxist/communists have successfully deployed cancel culture.
Better to tell that pollster what he wants to hear. Otherwise, mobs will party outside your home, your children are harassed, your home is burnt to the ground and you lose your job
“Looser” is the spelling for “loser” that losers use.
They lose the argument every time.
Just don't look at the elephant in the room, DEMONRAT MEDIA BIAS.
If a panel is convened to find the facts in the 2020 election and can reach zero definitive conclusions, the panel was a waste of time, as is byron york.
In reality, Biden NEVER had a lead.
For York to embrace this fake news is indicative he doesn't have clue on reality...or he's just another leftwing fake journalista pushing the Big Lie.
Misspelled it Byron. It was a poling disaster.
Pollsters and the media picked a side then determined to help their side win, all without considering the long term consequences of selling their credibility and integrity. In the process, they have succeeded in becoming irrelevant. It will take a generation to re-establish any trust whatsoever, once they start trying.
This is not just a problem with a single or even a couple of elections, it is, instead, a MAJOR and Structural FLAW in the industry! Consider the British experience with Brexit and Scotland Independence, both failed on the LEFTist side! These for-profit companies work for clients, many of whom are MSM and thus already biased to the LEFT. To me, it is natural for them to ‘shade’ their grey-zones towards their paymasters.
As for me, I never pay attention to their BS product nor do I respond to their requests (structural flaw) as I doubt their probity! I have no idea how they can fix this but it is not my problem. I jusy IGNORE THEM!
Byron York is a moron.
The problem with national polls is that a person answering the phone doesn’t want to be called a Fascist simply for opposing a Communist takeover.
The problem with the down-ballot polling was that ACORN, or whatever they call themselves now, was so busy manufacturing ‘votes’ for Biden that they didn’t have time to do their usual down-ballot stuffing.
What happened is pretty damn obvious at this point.
Exactly right and only the biggest dumbass cannot see this.
Except that particular excerpt is correct if you take the “polls” and compare them to Dementia Joe’s actual “results”, even if Dementia Joe’s “results” in swing states were fraudulent.
I personally think the mail in ballot process was a large
contributor to Trump’s loss. Because of the lock down in
many areas people voted by mail ballots. I believe many
of them wouldn’t have voted if the normal process was in
place at that time. JMO
“Notice something? The errors went in one direction: Exaggerating support for Democratic candidates.”
Byron’s a little late to the party.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.