Posted on 07/18/2021 11:51:22 PM PDT by Cronos
Many observers are forecasting that the world’s transition to electric cars will take place much sooner than expected. Now, BBC is also joining the fray. “What makes the end of the internal combustion engine inevitable is a technological revolution. And technological revolutions tend to happen very quickly … [and] this revolution will be electric,” reports BBC‘s Justin Rowlett.
Rowlett points to the late ’90s internet revolution as an example. “For those who hadn’t yet logged on [to the internet] it all seemed exciting and interesting but irrelevant — how useful could communicating by computer be? After all, we’ve got phones! But the internet, like all successful new technologies, did not follow a linear path to world domination. … Its growth was explosive and disruptive,” notes Rowlett.
So how fast will electric cars go mainstream? “The answer is very fast. Like the internet in the ’90s, the electric car market is already growing exponentially. Global sales of electric cars raced forward in 2020, rising by 43% to a total of 3.2m, despite overall car sales slumping by a fifth during the coronavirus pandemic,” reports the BBC.
According to Rowlett, “We are in the middle of the biggest revolution in motoring since Henry Ford’s first production line started turning back in 1913.”
Want more proof? “The world’s big car makers think [so]… General Motors says it will make only electric vehicles by 2035, Ford says all vehicles sold in Europe will be electric by 2030 and VW says 70% of its sales will be electric by 2030.”
And the world’s luxury automakers are also getting in on the action: “Jaguar plans to sell only electric cars from 2025, Volvo from 2030 and [recently] the British sportscar company Lotus said it would follow suit, selling only electric models from 2028.”
Rowlett spoke with Top Gear’s former host Quentin Wilson to get his take on the electric revolution. Once critical of electric cars, Wilson adores his new Tesla Model 3, noting, “It is supremely comfortable, it’s airy, it’s bright. It’s just a complete joy. And I would unequivocally say to you now that I would never ever go back.”
Not every electric vehicle would need a swapped battery pack every day. Typically they would only be necessary where an overnight charge wasn’t possible - as on a trip exceeding the range. There’s no technical reason why this couldn’t be provided as a service and where it would be most needed - rural areas, is exactly where there is plenty of space for a large facility.
That might be true for people who live in cities, but out here in flyover country where the deplorables toil to put food on your table, range does matter. Your ranch might be 20 miles from the nearest town of 500 people without high speed charging and hauling a load of cattle feed and groceries home in below zero weather in your electric pickup will likely leave you stranded. Small businesses like contractors depend on pickups to haul equipment and supplies to job sites and cannot afford to wait a hour for their electric truck to charge in the middle of their workday. During harvest season in the Midwest large combines go across the fields harvesting the grain crop and fill large semi trucks with grain to haul it to the local elevator. These vehicles as well as the tractors that plant the grain all run on diesel fuel. Where do you get a recharge of your batteries in the middle of a field?
The charges for swapping a battery, innrural areas, would be at least comparable to a tow truck. The only reason to not need a battery swap is if you keep to urban areas. That means, for most people, road trips are out of question.
That’s how it is now, but there’s no technical reason why the vehicles couldn’t be designed around a standardized pack that was easily swappable. Pay a service company a monthly, annual or one-time fee, pull into one of their facilities - pack comes out, new one goes in, you’re on your way.
That’s the only way, short of a battery technology revolution, that EVs will become full replacements for ICE outside of cities.
You are digging s deeper hole...
You should put up the capital to start that business. Let me know how it goes.
I don’t believe that they will ever replace hydrocarbons, if heavy duty performance is required
As I have mentioned, tooling around town is doable for an EV. The average person doesn’t drive more than 50 miles per day, if they live in the city.
But EV’s make travel simply impossible. I can’t go to Jasper like I like to do so. I would have to take the added weight of at least two additional batteries, assuming we developed swappable batteries, and sleeping in my vehicle, when I’m in Jasper, is out. In my Ford Fusion, I can flatten the back seats and lie down. I can’t do that if I have to carry swappable batteries with me. I would now have to either rent a room or row a trailer. Both a waste of time and money.
Why? I’ve already said electric vehicles are currently impractical and likely to remain so.
Have I said anything that isn’t true?
Long charging times are not a technical problem with EVs. It may be design problem, a financial problem or an infrastructure problem, but it’s not a technical problem and therefore not an inherent problem with EVs in general, just the current crop that were built to fit the current market.
We used devices for the better part of a century where we simply threw the batteries away and some of those (flashlights, for example) the batteries cost as much or more than the device. We didn’t say, “oh, flashlights aren’t practical because once the battery dies, they don’t work” We created battery distribution, with no additional technical changes to the battery and that solved the problem. We could do the same with EVs if there was the will to do so.
That doesn’t change that there are plenty of other serious issues with the current crop of EVs (the grid being the main one) that can’t be solved without technical advancement and others that require serious infrastructure solutions.
You would only think so if you willfully misunderstand what I wrote, which seems to be your MO.
You would only think so if you willfully misunderstand what I wrote, which seems to be your MO.
I think there are a lot of areas where ICEs will remain dominant in the market. EVs still perform abysmally in cold weather and that’s unlikely to change. They’re great for incredible bursts of torque, but terrible for sustained long-term heavy work unless they’re made so heavy as to be impractical (locomotives being the exception).
But there’s a heckuva lot of money being thrown at research and plenty of demand if some of the current problems can be overcome. We’ve seen range steadily expand to where they are now largely viable if you are in a city and remain there, which is quite a lot of people. They’re great a second vehicle, also not an insignificant market. Maybe there will be a technical revolution that will change the game and make them practical for a larger market, but then we still butt up against grid capacity for charging and that’s not an easy or inexpensive problem to solve.
Can’t see myself owning one in this lifetime, but that’s more the nature of living in a rural area far from interstates and supporting infrastructure.
You have put down most of the ideas why an electric car is not so practical. I’m sure there are a few more. The big thing when there are a lot of electric cars(may there never be a lot of them) will be the electricity to charge them along with other electrical needs. We are going to have to come up with something a lot different than what we got now. How can anyone put a guarantee on an electric used vehicle not knowing when the battery will play out? I’m thinking there are plenty more problems that just haven’t showed up yet.
And charging them with coal powered electricity
Same thing with cutting off nat gas to homes. We’ll see higher costs and less convenience. Thank you Democrats.
Dems are in the process of shutting off nat gas.
I’d be very reluctant to invest in a system that uses it.
Two words, Slot Cars...
A Tesla battery is about 16 grand.
So when it’s done, the chassis is heading to the last roundup.
Bull Crap.
We don’t have the electrical grid to handle them.
And being liberal morons, they are too stupid to realize 8t would massively increase coal, oil, hydro, and nuclear fuel use.
Idiots.
Are you kidding? Get real.
Global sales of electric cars raced forward in 2020, rising by 43% to a total of 3.2mWith 70mm global sales of new autos, that's like saying that the Wuhan has doubled fatality rates from 2.0 to 4.0%, and that, clearly, it will go from killing 2% to 4% to 16% to 256% of people.
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