Posted on 06/16/2021 10:57:15 AM PDT by george76
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the regulatory agency that manages Texas’ power grid, said tight grid conditions are expected this week due to high number of forced generation outages, and urged Texans to conserve energy.
The announcement came one month after it published its latest seasonal assessment projecting a less than a 1% chance of blackouts occurring this summer.
It also came just four months after the state’s historic power grid failure left millions of Texans in the cold and dark. Without heat and water during sub-zero temperatures in mid-February, 111 Texans died.
On Monday, ERCOT asked Texans to reduce electric use as much as possible through Friday. ERCOT reported tight grid conditions after a significant number of forced generation outages occurred with record electric use for the month of June.
Generator owners reported approximately 11,000 MW of generation was on forced outage for repairs. Of that, approximately 8,000 MW is thermal, whereby water is heated to drive an electrical generator, and 3,000 MW was from intermittent sources like solar and wind. According to the summer Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy, a typical range of thermal generation outages on hot summer days is around 3,600 MW. One MW typically powers around 200 homes on a summer day, ERCOT states.
“We will be conducting a thorough analysis with generation owners to determine why so many units are out of service,” ERCOT Vice President of Grid Planning and Operations Woody Rickerson said in a statement. “This is unusual for this early in the summer season.”
Wind output – which is generally unreliable, because wind does not blow all the time or every day – was expected to be between 3,500 and 6,000 MW between 3 p.m. and 9 p.m. Monday, roughly 1,500 MW lower than what is typically available for peak conditions. Wind output is expected to increase as the week goes on, when and if, there is more wind.
Monday’s peak load forecast may exceed 73,000 MW – more than the peak demand recorded for June 27, 2018 of 69,123 MW between 4 and 5 p.m., ERCOT warned.
After ERCOT’s massive failures in February, bills were introduced in the state legislature and recently signed into law by Gov. Greg Abbott to reform ERCOT. Abbott vowed that through these reforms, the Texas power grid would be more reliable.
Yet weeks later, ERCOT continued “to exaggerate its reserve margins of electricity available to Texans, claiming there’s less than a 1% chance of more blackouts this summer," the Texas Public Policy Foundation argues.
ERCOT’s overconfidence one month ago “is a slap in the face to the Texans it is supposed to serve,” TPPF’s Jason Isaac said in a statement.
“The problem is straightforward, if not simple – reserve margin calculations overestimate performance of wind and solar, which make up a significant and growing chunk of our electric generation,” Isaac said. “Unlike natural gas, clean coal, and nuclear – which produce a near-constant flow of electricity with reliability percentages rarely falling below the mid-90s – wind and solar production fluctuates wildly. For example, in just one summer week in 2019, wind generated between 2 and 63% of its installed capacity.”
Isaac warned last year that summer blackouts were coming to Texas. Outages would have occurred last August if there hadn’t been a lower electricity demand during the state shutdown, he adds. A recent close call on a mild April day “should have been a wakeup call,” Isaac argues. Instead, ERCOT was “citing a deceptively rosy 15.7% reserve margin projection for this summer and 28.8% for 2022.”
Its faulty calculation was based on relying on wind and solar energy generation, Isaac says; “and bad policies that discourage building reliable generation, we should get used to blackouts unless something changes fast.”
ERCOT has not adjusted its reliance on unreliable sources of wind and solar for energy and is asking Texans to reduce electric use. Texans are encouraged to set their thermostat to 78 degrees or higher, turn off lights and pool pumps, and avoid using large appliances like ovens, washing machines and dryers for the rest of the week.
Texans are also encouraged to turn off and unplug all electrical devices if they aren’t using them. They can also visit the Power to Save website or their electric provider for more ways to conserve energy.
Texans can also track ERCOT’s daily peak demand forecast and current load and available generation at www.ercot.com and subscribe to emergency alerts at http://lists.ercot.com.
It isn’t just “Texans”. It is also fleet of municipal vehicles taxpayers have bought cities.
“ Has this happened in past summer seasons?”
No. And it’s only jun
But then Texas is RED. Tell me what’s wrong./
Truly sad for a state capable of being independent from much of the country./
People are working day and night to hobble it.
Sounds to me like those big men with the 10 gallon hats have something else below those big belt buckles.
The governor signed legislation last week to strengthen the grid but its estimated to take up to 10 years to implement.
Didn’t think so...;(
Anyone getting fired?
Tesla’s are all over the place ce
How about a little Sharia inspired energy laws?
For each out of blackouts caused by ERCOT not having enough generating capacity, one of the board members loses a finger.
This isn’t rocket science guys. You can build a power plant.
Meant to say, For each HOUR of blackouts caused by ERCOT not having enough generating capacity, one of the board members loses a finger.
Texas handed it’s power grid over to the greens running ERCOT and they sabotaged it. Gonna take a long time to fix it. Unfortunately there hasn’t been a competent or honest DOE/AEC leader for more than a generation so nukes are off the table for the foreseeable future.
Republicans who fail to go after the environmental extremists who are causing this problem are more guilty than they are.
All hat, no cattle.
They were warned over 20 years ago. Nothing was done.
I read Illinois may ban coal power plants...
Really slick...with all the electric cars needing charging?!?!
Arrogance.
Not new.
They were told to harden things for freezing weather 10 years ago, but since it never gets cold in Texas they didn’t do it.
Same when the projections for power usage were released, and the need for new generating capacity. So they built windmills.
I am surprised it hasn’t hit coast to coast to be honest.
We are a dying empire. Imagine the feeling in Rome when the aqueducts stopped.
Sadly, I thot TX would be in strongest position against an EMP attack with their own grid—but it seems some of the wizards of smart have weakened the TX grid :(
Solar and wind are great auxiliary power but they won’t cut it in all conditions.
in North Central Texas our weather this week is normal and not a heat wave. A heat wave could be 15 degrees warmer. ERCOT needs to be replaced with people who understand that power plants are needed to generate electricity. Wind mills are solar panels are fine for isolated people off grid or high school science fair experiments.
ERCOT needs to be eliminated with everyone from top to bottom fired.
Then and only then, set up a board of folks who live in Texas, subject to the same standards as they impose upon Texans.
As a person who lived in her car for several days during the 2021 Freeze, I have absolutely no confidence in ERCOT.
Right now, as a matter of fact, I’m not too fond of my governor.
Yes, I am a Conservative Republican. The current governor has implemented/allowed several dangerous situations to fester.
When I suggested in the San Antonio Excuse for News that after the winter debacle ERCOT should have plans in place for some new nukes parked out in remote areas of W Texas, I was roasted by the energy luddites inhabiting these parts. I think my closing comment was what set them off:
I have never understood the ‘greens’ objection to nukes. Nukes don’t kill birds, they are quiet, they don’t kill huge swatches of plant and animal life as they have a small footprint, and they produce energy nearly 100% of the time regardless of the time of day, wind speed, or any other outside influence.
As usual with lefties, the name calling was their opening remarks.
We closed dozens of cheap lignite plants over the last 30 years. That’s why...
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