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Posted on 05/13/2021 7:38:31 AM PDT by Theoria
Surveys overstated Democrats’ support up and down the ballot, as some voters were less inclined to participate in polls
Public opinion surveys ahead of the 2020 presidential election were the most inaccurate in 40 years, according to an expert panel convened by the main trade group for pollsters, which said its work hadn’t yet pointed to a way to correct the error. In the aggregate, the panel said, polls overstated supportfor Democratic nominee Joe Biden by 3.9 percentage points in the national popular vote in the final two weeks of the campaign. That was a larger error than the 1.3-point overstatement in 2016 surveysfor Hillary Clinton, who won the popular vote but lost in the Electoral College.
It was the most substantial error in polling since 1980, when surveys found it hard to measure the size of Ronald Reagan’s impending landslide and overstated support for President Jimmy Carter by 6 percentage points.
The 2020 polls overstated Democratic support “in every type of contest we looked at: the national popular vote, the state-level presidential vote as well as senatorial and gubernatorial elections,’’ said Joshua D. Clinton, a professor of political science at Vanderbilt University who led the review for the American Association for Public Opinion Research.
“This was true no matter how respondents were polled. It didn’t matter whether you’re doing online or telephone polls. A similar level of error was pervasive,’’ said Mr. Clinton.
(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...
I initially read “miss” in the headline as “mess.” That would also work.
Or was it?
They ALWAYS miss on the polling of populists, because many of their supporters won’t answer or answer accurately...because of the constant media attacks.
...and in this case, they had a second reason - they couldn’t show Trump doing well and then have to explain the ‘late surges’ (in just the right states) for Biden.
The polls were wrong, the massive enthusiastic crowds for one candidate while the other could barely fill a phone booth were wrong, wrong, wrong.
Yeah, THAT’S the ticket!
What? Polling isn’t accurate when there’s massive cheating?
And it was much worse of a miss than they admit or know.
Question — what is the purpose of polling?
Is the purpose of polling to do a scientifically accurate measure of opinion?
Or is the purpose of polling, to push a particular candidate, a particular point of view, and convince people that a certain candidate is very popular, and convince people that they should support that candidate who is supposedly so popular?
I recall all the major polls had Hillary well ahead for most of the 2016 campaign, and we saw what happened there.
The terminally stupid and sadly humor impaired have insisted I post a disclaimer with this graphic.
DISCLAIMER:
Although this may be devastatingly accurate, it is not Dominion's real logo, nor is it Dominion's real slogan.
A recent poll showed Joe has a 63% approval rating. Anyone here believe that?
And a recent CNN poll showed an incredible 85% approval of Joe’s speech to Congress.
Then it was revealed that the CNN poll was heavily skewed towards Democrats, with far more Democrats being polled.
Rhetorical question might be, why did CNN publicize a poll which they knew was not a representative sample of the population???? Are they trying to push the narrative that Joe is hugely popular???
>>Surveys overstated Democrats’ support up and down the ballot, as some voters were less inclined to participate in polls
They ALWAYS oversample Rats in ALL polls.
They also try to depress conservative turnout.... “You’re just gonna lose anyhow!”
And if a voter is less inclined to participate in a survey admitting to voting for Trump, could it be because their are militant black bloc Communists beating down people in the streets and gloating over their attacks on innocent people?
If they knew that Trump was going to have the most people ever, they would’ve had to bump up their ballot stuffing earlier than the end of election night.
Rats believe their own circle jerk media and figured it would be a cakewalk.
There was theft and criminality that cowards will not address.
Feature, not a bug
It’s always overstated for the Rat...on purpose
Since the election was riddled with fraud, virtually NONE of the post-election polling/voting analysis is reliable. The data set is totally, utterly corrupted. Maybe FL and OH were reliable.
I wish the next Republican president would say,
“we reject conservatives being represented by the color RED...from this point on in my administration, we will be the color BLUE and democrats will be referred to as the color RED.”
I was hoping Trump would have done this...that would make the crazies even crazier.
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