COVID-19 Vaccinations in the United States (17 Apr, as of 06:00 AM ET)

Vaccine effectiveness (Moderna) is about 95%, that you will not contract a case of COVID if exposed. The protection against contracting one of the more infectious variants is only slightly lower.

If you do come down with COVID, your case, on average, would be significantly milder than the average of cases among the unvaccinated. The UK and South African variants, though more transmissible, are not more severe or deadly. They would be equally attenuated by having been vaccinated.

The protection against the most severe case (Death) is 99% and change - approaching 100%. Apparently, for all the variants.

That is just the vaccine protection. Treatments have also advanced. The Regeneron infusion is kind of a miracle drug for serious cases.

My (unvaccinated) friend (fit male, early 60’s) recently got COVID, which got bad over a few hard days, and sent him to the emergency room with secondary pneumonia. They gave him Regeneron, and he felt significantly better in two hours. The next day his fever subsided.

So there is now strong backup, to the already strong vaccine protection.

In addition to the strong protections, the risk of exposure is about to drop like a rock over the next two months, as herd immunity causes case numbers to fall off the cliff.

We know that protection starts building during the second week after the first shot, and that the official effectiveness numbers are a snapshot, two weeks after the second.

It may continue improving a bit beyond then, and may decline at some rate, to some degree, sometime afterwards (or not). That has not been definitively measured, to my knowledge.

Ah, OK, with the protection as good as "snapshot" 2 weeks after the 2nd shot, well, I should have been in REALLY good shape this morning. (Went into what I thought might be a slightly "iffy" environment, turned out it was likely less so than had been told to me. Long story, and I have yard work to do to beat t-storms coming in!)

Thanks.

There is substantial evidence that the second shot of the Pfizer vaccine is VERY modestly enhanced byt the second shot.

21-28 days after the first shot the average immunity peaks at 91.7%. The average immunity two week post 2nd shot has only increased to 95.2%. Only fractionally better.

Much discussion was given to the premise that emphasis should be removed for the second shot and concentrated on giving many more first shots early. There is validity to that argument.

But is there not also substantial evidence that the 1st shot’s protection starts tailing off after that 3rd-4th week peak? Therefore the 2nd shot to not only restore the better protection, but to convince the body to produce more B cells, which are the ones you really want for extended protection.

The UK formally adopted th policy you discussed (delaying second shots, to front load more first shots).

They got excellent results in controlling the disease and saving lives. One of the best in the world.

I think they wait 12 weeks for the second shot.

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