Posted on 04/14/2021 7:03:43 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Political polling has always been of questionable value in my eyes, yet until recently it’s been highly prized (and pollsters well compensated). When performed for media outlets, polling often is done to advance an agenda (so-called “push polling”), phrasing questions in a manner designed to produce results that would convince the public that a certain issue or candidate is what the cool kids favor.
But even when done for a candidate seeking to discover where he or she stands in the public eye, the potential for abuse is high. Candidates re-packaging themselves to appeal to a broader group rather than deciding issues on the merits, resorting to misleading language to hide their real positions, and outright pandering are just some of the problems.
But now that the media and pollsters have earned well-deserved scorn from a very large share of the public, so many people either refuse to speak with pollsters or outright lie to them in order to confound their ability to be useful, I think they have outlived their effectiveness for anybody. Thus we have Democrat pollsters huddling together over how to save their profession (and their bank accounts) and issuing a big mea culpa. Steven Shepard of Politico reports:
A group of top Democratic Party pollsters are set to release a public statement Tuesday acknowledging “major errors” in their 2020 polling — errors that left party officials stunned by election results that failed to come close to expectations in November.
In an unusual move, five of the party’s biggest polling firms have spent the past few months working together to explore what went wrong last year and how it can be fixed.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
But, but but, all mainstream media polls predicted Biden’s win, and they were right weren’t they? /s
But, but but, all mainstream media polls predicted Biden’s win, and they were right weren’t they? /s
Whrn Bevin first ran for governor of my commonwealth the polls had him down by four just before election day. He won by nine.
Polls don’t work these days for reasons similar to why you no longer see door to door salesmen. The culture doesn’t really support it.
Most pollsters are Democratic propagandists.Their job is to create the illusion that the narrative is valid and supported by the people. It is far more important to identify and stop ballot fraud. Democrats cannot win in most places without fraud.
“..... as they struggle to survive evidence that polls now are worthless..”
As are critical elections in swing states.
There weren’t any ‘errors’. They use polling as a tool, although it can backfire, as it did in 2016, when they convinced so many Democrats that Skunk Cabbage had it in the bag that they didn’t even need to vote, much less cheat.
In most of our adult lifetimes there has been 4 elections with populist Republicans running - Reagan twice, Trump twice. All 4 had the race either ‘really close’ (Reagan’s) or the Republican getting destroyed (Trump’s), and in all cases, the Republican did vastly better. They knew it.
I’ve heard talk in recent years, that conservative leaning people are reluctant to reveal opinions to a stranger on the phone.
There is no reluctance for liberals to have said they supported Biden, or supported Hillary. But there was reluctance for Trump supporters to announce support to a stranger calling them.
Just a few percentage points of people not being honest will badly skew polling results.
How many people answer calls from an unknown caller anymore? If I don’t recognize the number, I only answer if I expect a call. And even then most of the time it is a scammer or other unwanted salesman.
No, the problem is that their polls did not take into account the cheating Democrats carried out.
Quinnipiac Polling's Peter Brown Tries To Defend Oversampling Democrats In New State PollsHH: But I don’t know how that goes to the issue, Peter, so help me. I’m not being argumentative, I really want to know. Why would guys run a poll with nine percent more Democrats than Republicans when that percentage advantage, I mean, if you’re trying to tell people how the state is going to go, I don’t think this is particularly helpful, because you’ve oversampled Democrats, right?
PB: But we didn’t set out to oversample Democrats. We did our normal, random digit dial way of calling people. And there were, these are likely voters. They had to pass a screen. Because it’s a presidential year, it’s not a particularly heavy screen.
HH: And so if, in fact, you had gotten a hundred Democrats out of a hundred respondents that answered, would you think that poll was reliable?
PB: Probably not at 100 out of 100.
HH: Okay, so if it was 75 out of 100…
PB: Well, I mean…
HH: I mean, when does it become unreliable? You know you’ve just put your foot on the slope, so I’m going to push you down it. When does it become unreliable?
PB: Like the Supreme Court and pornography, you know it when you see it.
HH: Well, a lot of us look at a nine point advantage in Florida, and we say we know that to be the polling equivalent of pornography. Why am I wrong?
PB: Because what we found when we made the actual calls is this kind of party ID.
HH: Do you expect Democrats, this is a different question, do you, Peter Brown, expect Democrats to have a nine point registration advantage when the polls close on November 6th in Florida?
PB: Well, first, you don’t mean registration.
HH: I mean, yeah, turnout.
PB: Do I think…I think it is probably unlikely.
HH: And so what value is this poll if in fact it doesn’t weight for the turnout that’s going to be approximated?
PB: What I believe is what we found.
Can’t blame them... Who could seen coattails for a president who lost reelection... first time ever...
Can’t blame them... Who could have predicted coattails for a president who lost reelection... first time ever...
The only one that counts is the new Rasmussen poll that shows 51% of American voters don’t believe that Biden won the election.
Great post!!
When one side is characterized as nazis and racists for mundane center-right political viewpoints, no shit the polls aren’t going to be accurate. “Hello, I’m an anonymous pollster with some organization you’ve never heard of, I have your name and phone number and probably physical address. Would you like to take a moment and tell me if you’re voting for The Good Guy or Literally Hitler Reincarnated this election? Remember, Literally Hitler Reincarnated supporters are forced out of their jobs and violently assaulted in the streets. Oh, you’re voting for The Good Guy? Thanks for your time.”
That was proven in 2016, when the polls were giving Hillary a slam-dunk. The party failed to crank the fraud machine up to high gear, as they did in 2020, because they thought they’d win in a walkaway.
Am I the only one that knows Benford’s law????
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