Posted on 12/28/2020 10:31:08 AM PST by rktman
The State of California officially has the worst coronavirus outbreak in the country — as well as some of the tightest restrictions.
California is now reporting the highest number of new daily COVID-19 cases per capita in the country.
Last week, the state reported the nation’s fourth highest number of daily COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents over a seven day period, but California jumped to first place when the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention updated its case per capita tracker Saturday.
…
The state is posting the country’s worst COVID-19 numbers despite a new stay-at-home order that took effect in most of the state in early December. Cellphone data suggests compliance is low, and some have speculated the state’s strict restrictions contributed to the winter explosion.
Restrictions have become tighter in California even as other states have been able to relax some of their rules. In Los Angeles, even walking has been forbidden except for particular purposes (though the rule is not enforced).
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Taiwan has about 28,000,000 jammed on an island not much bigger and no new inhouse cases for over 6 months. A few have flown in but caught at airport.
Think I read some place that 70% of californicate hospitalizations are illegals.
My friend saw a group of women in Dallas last week visiting from CA so they could shop, eat out, have their hair done and have some fun.
What’s the definition of a case? What amplification factor is used in CA?
They probably registered to vote for the next election, too.
If it looks, tastes, smells or even sounds like CV19, it’s CV19. 😷💉😯
I am in Pacoima right now, a small community with 120,000 residents and 25,000 Citizens. Pacoima has the Highest Infection rate in the county, they are testing everywhere around here, people lined up for hours in their cars. With the exception of myself, I would put Mask Compliance at 98%. Here in Pacoima the houses are real small and there is usually at least 2-3 families crowded into these 2 bdrm houses..
I will say this, The Spanish Media has done a Fabulous Job of keeping them Scared to Death of their own shadow.
Oh yeah...its kinda like gun control isnt it ???
LOL! I was thinking that earlier. Not working? More restrictions then until WE get what WE want.
All stats need to consider the timing. NY mortality mostly occurred when there wasn’t much testing being done, due to poor availability of tests.
IMHO only use post-September data to do interstate comparisons of positive tests.
Ideally also use only overall mortality, not medical reports of Covid mortality. Granted this can be hard to get hold of for states, and its lagged substantially.
The more tests, the more detections. The rate of detections depends more on the intensity of testing than actual infections.
The worst place for Covid, by that flawed system, is likely to be the place where herd immunity has been achieved.
The restrictions make it worse, but they know that and that is why they want more restrictions.
What you say is very true. This covid thing points out the poor statistical education of our news media. They jump on a number some producer researches and do nothing to analyze the basis for them.
We won’t really know how dangerous and deadly this infection was until we see how many excess deaths there were in each age group. How many people got it and survived without complications is of no real concern.
My guess is we will have lost the oldest cohort 65 and over a year or two earlier than we would have normally. That group, to which I belong, loses 1.2 million a year. Half the deaths that we will probably reach before the vaccines come in to play, will be from that group; or 200,000. That’s my guess for the excess death number. So is that worth the economic loss? I’m not sure it is.
Tough call on economic loss.
Fiscally, if one takes it as given that this cohort does not “produce” outside of capital returns which will be rolled over to new owners anyway, and that shortened lives save a lot in lifetime medical costs and pension payouts of all kinds, then one can make that argument that its a net gain to various systems.
Consumption will be reduced however, as they will not be around to consume, so a reduction in GDP. The more people, the higher GDP, ceteris paribus.
Using alternate models of utility, a loss of anyone is a possible loss to other people, relatives and friends say, who would have been willing perhaps to pay to keep the deceased alive for the sake of their company. That is a good way to go down the economic utility rabbit hole.
Economic analyses are a mess as usual.
we have a higher testing rate because there is more demand for tests. People who line up 200 cars deep aren’t in line because they’re feeling fine. I’ve left the ranch three times in 10 months; twice to the grocery and once out of area to check on my other house. I’m one of the 7 million still untested but I haven’t felt the need to go to a drive-in testing site because I’m a) not sick and b) retired and don’t need a test for an employer.
According to a report by Kaiser Permanente, “the U.S. had 85,247 coronary, trauma, surgical, burn, and general ICU beds in community and non-Federal hospitals in 2018. That equates to 2.7 ICU beds per 10,000 of the population.”
California has 2.1 ICU beds per 10,000, or just under 8,300 ICU beds. About half (4,100) are dedicated to covid, the remaining half are for ‘everyday’ ICU patients. We need med staff for both groupings.
According to the Sacramento Bee, “As of Sunday, more than 19,200 patients were hospitalized with confirmed cases of the virus in California, including 4,123 treated in intensive care units. Both totals are now officially more than double the peak observed during the summer surge, when about 7,200 were hospitalized with 2,050 in intensive care.”
So, as you can see, Calif is maxed out on ICU capacity. At this point the only stat that counts is, “How many ICU teams of 6 will remain available versus how many occupied ICU beds?”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/coronavirus-updates-california-now-the-covid-epicenter-of-the-us-icu-space-at-0-25/ar-BB1cin7h?ocid=uxbndlbing
https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/05/18/icu-bed-capacity-in-all-50-us-states-compared-infographic/?sh=27f9a05324dc
Wearing masks and mandated lockdowns share something in common: neither affect the infection rate of the China virus.
How about a mandate like this: anyone who tests positive to the virus from China must quarantine themselves for 14 days. During the first seven days of quarantine they must take daily doses of HCQ and zinc.
The economic loss of all the shuttered and upset businesses will be a reduction in GNP. That will be number that is as good as any number we have. This year may also spin us into a recession as rents aren’t paid, receivables likewise,and disruptions spread worldwide. You have alresdy seen a huge write off of energy assets. All of this is a direct result of government forced lock downs.
If they hadn’t been made there would have been some sick outs and labor shortages but nothing like what has happened.
To justify these economic costs of covid we would had to have seen a Spanish Flu level of death world wide. I don’t think it would have been nearly that bad, In 1918-19 estimates are 50 million died which was 3.3% of the world population. There were no shutdowns and a war was just ending.
Sweden’s death rate is a fraction of a percent and they didn’t shut down.
IMO a commercial real estate depression exceeding the 2008 meltdown awaits next year. Between rents not paid and commercial leases not being renewed, a train wreck is steaming towards the financial system. And we've squandered potential bailout monies on stupid Dem and GOP crapola.
A case is a confirmed positive. PCR swab positive and ‘quick tests’ are just suspected cases. A suspected positive isn’t positive until confirmed by a lab. Antibodies are present in 90% of symptomatic individuals by day 14 of infection. Got IgG and IgM antibodies? You’re a confirmed positive.
Each individual is considered one case, regardless of how many times that person tests, or whether they test positive or negative each time.
Exactly so.
Im just showing part of the other end of the argument.
And I dont think shutdowns have kept many alive.
The democrats just lie and lie. The numbers are false to begin with as we have read about the virus test kits are near 100% detecting the virus even when not used. That is because there is money to be made as the gov’t pays more for positive results so everyone tests positive.
Received email today about those that have to go onto the 2 story office building where I work. It normally has up to 300 people there but with the plandemic it has been nearly empty since mid march. I work from home and probably will retire before the dictators allow people to work as before.
The news was that everyone there must now wear a face mask unless in a closed door office. If at a desk with cubicle walls you must wear a mask. A handful of people work there. No more then a dozen such as admin services, the front desk security, a few lawyers or finance people. A ghost town. I am on the phone all the time, no way you can wear a mask.
You can bet the politicians are not wearing a mask while at work. Not a chance.
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