A while back I thought that he would do just that, but since then he voted for impeachment and voted against Amy Coney Barrett.
It's hard to believe he could win re-election in WV as a Democrat, and as a Republican, he might not win the nomination. So I think he shot himself in the foot and this Senate term is probably his last.
I have a cousin who lives in WV who is a semi-bigwig in the WV VFW and he's a strong conservative. He knows Joe Manchin personally and has voted for him in the past. But the last function that he went to where Manchin was present, my cousin wouldn't even go over to talk to him. So if Manchin has lost support like this, he's probably toast.
Manchin wants to run for president !
He wants to follow the Bill Clinton model of “moderate splitting the two radical left & right” from a social conservative state. (Yes in spite of past actions he still thinks he is a moderate!)
I think he’s out of sync with the times with this strategy. 2020-2024 culturally & politically have little to do with 1992. What worked then will not work now. In fact if Biden wins Manchin will be completely out of step with the rest of the AOC-”Hard-care-Left” of the Rat party. It’s doubtful he could take his ambition and cross-over to the GOP. Who would trust him ? He has stayed in office in WV because the WV GOP have run a series of mediocre candidates against him. His last election his entire campaign consisted of pointing out that the GOP candidate was not a native WV’ian. (Yes that matters here!)