THANKSGIVING EYE ON THE MARKET

JP Morgan ^ | 11/18/2020 | MICHAEL CEMBALEST

[tarpit]

I have not mentioned Contingent Elections, since most scenarios I can think of entail one candidate or the other reaching 270 EVs; and/or since if any state’s EVs are not submitted by the December 14th deadline, such EVs would most likely be removed from the numerator and denominator of the Electoral College equation. As a result, a candidate would need to obtain a simple majority of all remaining EVs to win.

[tarpit]

MICHAEL CEMBALEST is the chairman of Market Investment and Strategy for JP Morgan Asset Management. Obviously a well educated individual providing guidance to High Net Worth Individuals. There is a lot of information embedded in this well written report.

What stuck out to me was his interpretation of events regarding what would happen if any States EV are not submitted by the 12/14 deadline. This appears on page 6.

[frogjerk]

He is wrong as the number of electoral votes is set by law already and the denominator would be affected only by D.C. not being included in the contingent election. Denominator would be 535.

[Alberta's Child]

I don’t see a likely scenario where any state can’t submit its EVs by 12/14. If any vote count processes and challenges are still in disarray by 12/14 I would expect the state legislatures in the affected states to elect their own slates or electors.

I’ve also considered the outlandish possibility that one or more legislatures could minimize any political backlash by voting for NEITHER major candidate’s electors — and selecting the electors for the Libertarian Party candidate (for example). This way, there would still be 538 EVs cast on 12/14 but it’s possible that neither candidate gets to 270.

[NurdlyPeon]

Then why did the founders write up the procedure where the race would go to The House to be decided? According to this guy’s ‘simple majority’ theory, sending the vote to The House could not happen.

[NurdlyPeon]

Then why did the founders write up the procedure where the race would go to The House to be decided? According to this guy’s ‘simple majority’ theory, sending the vote to The House could not happen.

[Harmless Teddy Bear]

Then why did the founders write up the procedure where the race would go to The House to be decided?

The vote goes to the House in case of a tie.

[Dr. Sivana]

According to this guy’s ‘simple majority’ theory, sending the vote to The House could not happen.

No majority if a third or fourth candidate gets a substantial number of electoral votes. For instance, George Wallace earned 45 electoral votes in 1968 by winning five states.

[tarpit]

Thank you. So in the event that nobody gets 270, how is it that it gets decided by a simple majority or does it go to the house?

[Dr. Sivana]

If no candidate has a majority of electors, the President is decided by the states’ congressional delegations (no DC, one delegation per state), and the Vice-President is decided by the Senate.

[photodawg]

Then why did the founders write up the procedure where the race would go to The House to be decided? According to this guy’s ‘simple majority’ theory, sending the vote to The House could not happen.
/////////////////

Constitution provides remedy. No do overs, no elimination of state totals. Trump will prove machine fraud, SCOTUS will void elections in at least 5 states and it will go to the House where Trump will win.
These people are so stupid they will go insane, because they think they live in a socialist democracy. This time if they riot they will be busted and jailed

[laplata]

Then what would happen?

I am confident President Trump will prevail.

[tarpit]

Thank you for the clarification. That is what I thought but was confused by Mr. CEMBALEST guidance.

[NurdlyPeon]

"The clock is a double-edged sword in this election because if they don't have enough time but if they can put forward a sufficiently strong case then they may be able to get some Republican Secretaries of States or legislatures to say, 'Look, we just don't have enough time to certify these electors' and if they can bring down the number of electors, 35 [to] 37, from the 305 and bring it down to 267 or 268 then the election goes to the House, where the Republicans win," he explained.

Dershowitz explained that the Trump Team's legal strategy is to pull enough electors away from Joe Biden that he doesn't meet the 270 threshold by the time the election needs to be certified. He also said there's no possible way for President Trump to get to 270 electoral votes in time.

"The goal is to prevent Biden from getting 270, that's why the clock is a double-edged sword," he said.