COVID-19 Update - 11/04/2020

My own workup | 11/04/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update # 231

As of 11/03/2020 23:15 PDST     United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST     WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST     Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you can find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02     the United States Situation
Section: 03     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05     the Mortality Report
Section: 06     Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information³
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Georgia's Numbers An Insult to Anyone Paying Attention

Please be aware that Georgia's numbers are at least ten times their normal
range yesterday. This will affect many of our metrics for yesterday.

Right here in our opening numbers, please calculate in Georgia's

31,605 New Cases, and 480 Fatalities.

If this was an attempt to affect the vote, it was a day late and a dollar
short.

Please take a look at it in the context of all the other states down below.

You'll see out outlandish it's numbers were for yesterday.

Make of it what you will.

Fatalities and New Cases in the United States

Fatalities rose by 1,135 cases from the previous day, to come in at 1,659
yesterday. That was 59.67% higher than the same day the previous
week. Deduct Georgia's numbers from this for a reasoned figure.

New Cases rose by 33,391 from the day before, to come in at 126,089
yesterday. That was 69.57% higher than the same day the week before.

Deduct Georgia's numbers from this for a reasoned figure.

Fatalaties and New Cases on the Global Scene

Fatalities rose by 2,975 cases from the previous day, to come in at 9,213
yesterday. That was 33.85% higher than the same day the previous week.

Yes, Georgia's numbers impacted the global figures also.

New Cases rose by 29,147 cases from the day before, to come in at 533,023
yesterday. This was 15.09% higher than the same day the week before.
Georgia covered the global increase in cases, it was so wildly higher
than it's normal figures.

Section: 02

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America

Here we go...

New Case Declarations rose by 33,391 cases yesterday. Of those Georgia
accounted for 31,605 all on their own. Absurd!

Please take note of the Resolved Percentage level on the right.
It has been falling recently.

The number is significant enough now to take note of it daily now.

Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here are more of our numbers...

Active Cases rose by 58,651 cases yesterday. That was a pretty heavy day.

Serious/Critical cases continue to rise over on the right.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our slice of the pie has been decreasing recently.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.

This area looked terrible yesterday, and again the Georgia numbers came
into play. They swamped nearly every metric relation to counts
domestically and globally.

We dropped about 6.00% in the Active Case slice of the pie in the last month,
but don't let that fool you, our number has been growing too much, but the
global number has been growing more than ours.

Active Cases in the United States / Chart

Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point with this one.

Note that this presents the single, seven, and fourteen day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.

Georgia's number dominated this area also. Anything to do with New Cases
if widly off track.

Not liking this are much right now. Disappointing...

The Active Cases are rising day by day. Using this metric we are experiencing
a new wave at this time. About all we can do is wait to see how severe it
becomes. Severe is probably the worng word here, but I think you know what
I mean.

I reference it as the third wave, but Fauci has let it be known, he still thinks
we're on the first wave. He may be right. I'm not sure what the scientific
requirements are to declare a wave over. If it settles down, that seems like
an end to me, and the chart looks for all the world like a third wave is in full
swing now.

Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup

Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that. The size
of it just doesn't seem reasoned to me.

Why/how could the posive portion of the popoulace vary ass much as 2.0% from day
to day? I could a lot easier see a 2.0% trend over three or four days. One day?
Nah.

Testing is screwed up also. Thanks Georgia. The testing is at a normal
level, but look at that single day postive. 10.90? Absurd!

This area is affected too. The chart figures for yesterday are useless, and
they will be affected for the next 13 days.

The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers. I may be wrong
not to do so, but I don't plan to put much weight in those figures for a
few days until they normalize.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to watch.

 

The New Case Declarations line is moving on up.

The Active Case line is rising.

United States Movers and Shakers...

I will present the U S States with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities rankings.

Here we go...

Georgia's team made a fool of the state in both metrics here today.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories

New Case declarations here were eclipsed by Georgia yesterday.

The Resolved Percentage fell again yesterday.

Please take a look back up the column to see it's changes recently.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

Active Cases rose by 197,964 cases yesterday. This was impacted by the
Georgia numbers also, causing it to be 31,300 or so cases higher than
it really was.

Check out the Serious/Critical cases there. 86k +. Grrrr...

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Let's see...

The middle/important number there should have been 31,300 case higher,
but Georgia's numbers were deducted from it, being in the United States.

The United States elevated number affects that, bringing it
lower than it otherwise would have been.

Once again, Georgia is the 300 pound canary in the room. Metrics here
should be reduced by 31,300 across the board in each area.

George looms large here also. 31,300 cases should not have impacted
each of these figures as it did.

The blue line depicts our New Cases, is still trending up steadily.

The only up side here is that our line doesn't resemble the Global
community line.

The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart

As in the United States' version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.

Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Georgia!

Global Active Cases are growing considerably. The distortion on the right
of those graphs is so out of line with the rest of the charts.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)

Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

Ug!

The best way to read these line charges, is to take each individual
nation and compare what it's doing now in relation to what it was
doing.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?

Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

Sweden had flattened out a bit after that correction a while back, but it
is drifting up now, and so is Norway.

The best way to read these line changes, is to take each individual
nation and compare what it's doing now in relation to what it was
doing.

The Netherlands... yikes.

Global Movers and Shakers...

I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.

Here we go...

The United States took both spots here yesterday. Georgia was responsible
for a clearical entry that reported out about 31,300 cases over a normal
day's figures for them. They also reported out about 450 more fatalities
than normal. Both their metrics today were about 10 times what a normal
day would be for them.

The ignorance it would take to put something like this out, boggles the mind.

Oh we've been screwing up something fierce. Sorry. Here, hope you don't
mind this cow pattie tainting everything domestically and globally today.

Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Agveraging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

 

Georgia!

The Active Case chart line is turning up. Sorry to see it.

In the United States chart like this one, the Recoveries, and Resolved
Case lines have not shown near the strength as is revealed here with these
upward bound lines.

That chart is provided here, in a small version, but you can see it full size
if you right click view.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.003% of today's total global numbers.
(this was larger than normal change here, and there may have been
something I didn't pick on - keep that in mind as you review this)

Note: That 0.003% figure should have run solidly over the last few
days, but I had made a small error in data entry. I knew I had but
didn't run into the cause until the next day. Then I forgot to update
this number. It appeared incorrect for two days, at aroumd 00.457%.
Sorry about that.

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

The Resolved percentage is declining for all groups at this time. Just
peak at it once in a while.

Folks should view up the column to see what the trend here has been
recently.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Active Cases and Serious/Critical cases rose yesterday.

Section: 05

the Mortality Report

Here is the data for four entities...

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.

Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

Not only our numbers, but the global numbers too were impacted by Georgia's
approximate 450 case over reported for yesterday.

Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.

Here, let's look at data for the United States broken out by itself.

Georgia > 450 cases over-reported for one day.

Look how broad that last week is. Note that it hasn't dropped down nearly
as much as it normally does. Sunday and Monday will be key, as they may
tip off what to look forward to this week.

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.

This area hasn't looked too good lately. Not good...

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

I expanded the levels here. We had nations who were seeing serious
growth, and their levels weren't showing up very well at the top.

Over 50% of the 215 nations we're tracking now, have declared over 10,000 cases,
but they have far less of them still Active. Over 30% of the nations we're
tracking have delared over 50,000 cases along the way. None of them have
anything near their declared amount remaining active. Keep that in mind.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.

And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

Please take note of the new tally line down below the numbers up above.
I'm now showing the case number change and percentage of this week's number
to last weeks number.

On Tuesday, we had a 31,300 New Case over-report from Georgia. That
could have cut the global rise considerably. The rise should have been
in the neighborhood of 38k yesterday. Georgia...

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

For months Puerto Rico was showing up with the Counties. That stopped in early July
if memory serves me well.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.

There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.

These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China did not update that number until 09/02/20. On that date they
raised the number to 160,000,000. As of October 3rd, 2020, they haven't updeded
it again. So I do not inlude China in the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding
Testing, and any place that reports out global testing numbers for a top level
comparison.

Please note that global testing on the Dashboard was only deducting China's
90,410,000 figure from 09/02 through 10/02/2020. I should have been
deducting the 160,000,000 figure, and all global figures during that period
were 69,590,000 tests too high.

We remained in 19th place yesterday.

Section: 10

Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Court Sesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers

Listed in the order of current utilization...

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories & Other Entities¹¹, Nations²¹⁹,
                and the CDC Provisional Counts⁵³
                Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
               Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC National Center for Health Services
               Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
               by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden

LINK   Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
               the University College London Genetics Institute

LINK   COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
               Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
               the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   R_t COVID-19
               Calculates and displays the R_t Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

[webheart]

Covid schmovid

[DoughtyOne]

Yes, I think it would be wise to ignore the numbers and let
the Leftists pull anything they want without us seeing
what they are doing.

/s

Did you know that Georgia reported out 10 times their normal
daily amount of New cases and Fatalities yesterday?

[Drago]

Someone in charge of stats at the GA Dept. of Public Health is a PDJT fan? And held back some bad news until after election day to help the president’s re-election chances?

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

BTW: I don’t see any big spike in their case/death data? Just trending back up somewhat?

[DoughtyOne]

About 480 fatalities yesterday, reported out.

That’s about ten times normal I believe.

[DoughtyOne]

My read is that they tried to make Georgia look bad just in
time to herd some voters in their direction.

Too late...

[Drago]

We must be looking at different GA data, I am seeing 44 statewide deaths on 11/4, and 30 on 11/3. (In line with your “normal”/typical #’s for GA).

[Drago]

They did add this note on todays’ update: “The following probable death counts have been added to the website: “Aggregate statewide probable death counts”.” There were 450 of those deaths (total since COVID identified in GA). That 450 added to 44 for today’s daily death number gets you close to the 480 #.

See: (scroll down)
https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

[Drago]

Oops, sorry you have to click on the “The latest: What’s new with this report?” link on that web page. (not “scroll down”).

[DoughtyOne]

Thanks. I understand what you’re getting at.

These states don’t seem to grasp that if they add in
numbers, if has to be added to the total sometime.

I don’t separate out those numbers, because they are
a part of the historic (record, whatever) and have to
be added into the total numbers at some point.

They act like, “Oh, we’ll just add these in and nobody
will notice.”

If we’re counting total deaths, we have to address
those numbers. They aren’t outside in some other
class. If they didn’t get added bit by bit each day,
they blow out the total deaths on one day, just exactly
what happened.

Who are they kidding?

Oh we only had 40 deaths yesterday. Just ignore the
other 440 deaths. Those aren’t deaths that happened
today. Duh!

I realize it’s a clerical correction, but it has to
be added in. I can’t add them back six months, a few
at a time. Once it comes in over the transom, they
are official. They reported them on one day. Now
they don’t want anyone to take note and add them in.

Doesn’t work that way.

[Drago]

OK, yeah I guess it is a “catch up” number or a “we changed our criteria of a COVID death” clerical correction. And 450 deaths were dumped on one day (11/4). I still contend it was a Trump supporter waiting for 11/4!! ;-) YMMV

[DoughtyOne]

I think you touched on it, a change of classification.

Not sure how you get 31,600 new cases though.

They did that also yesterday.

[Paul R.]

As much as I’d prefer our side be on the up and up, and we should deal with fatalities as they occur, you may be correct. But, this could also be “the weekend vs. weekday effect” greatly exaggerated in both time and numbers by incompetency somewhere.* Such “catch up” numbers have not been unusual, although this one is bigger than any I readily recall.

*Note that France had a sudden very high fatalities day recently, for example. So, it’s not just us.

[Paul R.]

I asked this on the prior thread, but it was late & likely not seen by many:

Has anyone postulated why the present European “wave” (cases OR fatalities) is increasing so much more rapidly than the US?

Ok, maybe I should lump our state of Georgia in with Europe... /s (Seriously, the Euro numbers are not a one day aberration.)

[lightman]

Pennsylvania Nursing Home (LTC) deaths for November 4.

Data from PA Department of Health swept midnight November 3-4

http://www.health.pa.gov

LTC deaths = 5851 (increase of 35)
Total deaths = 8890 (increase of 35)

Cumulative LTC deaths at percentage of total = 65.8%

Four days of single digits followed by a massive “adjustment”.

Just like counting votes for Biden in Philadelphia.

[Paul R.]

I should note that most of Europe is slightly warmer than most of the continental US. That’s due to ocean currents and mountain ranges, There is considerable discussion of this climate pattern online, for the curious.