Posted on 11/04/2020 1:55:15 PM PST by SmokingJoe
Republicans are winning or have won 24 of 27 U.S. House races listed as toss-ups by NY Times … and 13 of 36 ones listed under ‘Democrats expected to win narrowly.’
(Excerpt) Read more at citizenfreepress.com ...
They did this last night. They dragged their feet on calling states that would have made Trump’s EV total higher than Biden’s. All about the optics.
Theory: the Democrats are so focused on the big prize that they are forgetting to protect down the ballot.
Any idea what the tally is now? Last I looked it was GOP +5.
I love this kind of analysis, where you can see what they predicted vs what happened
I just counted the House races we are ahead in at RCP and came up with 225 Republican House seats? Can someone count them and prove me wrong?
The bias at the NYT is pretty clear. You would think that unless this is desired propaganda, someone would get fired for gathering such wrong information and passing off as “news.”
As far as I can see, we have picked up u Dem seats so far. But it could change.
My only quibble is that it was probably more than 5, but yeah. The House is really an underreported story.
Thank you. So much for Faux News’s call that the Rats were going to extend the lead.
No one should be surprised. The conceit of pollsters is that they are scientists. They dazzle us with a blizzard of rationalizations, but what they do is similar to witchcraft. Nobody knows nothing*. The basic assumption of polling is that the profile of the people who respond is similar to the voting population. They are discovering that this is untrue to the point that their numbers are worthless either in themselves or as trend indicators.
* This was what an Oscar-winning scriptwriter said about the movie business. His favorite movies - the ones he was involved in - were commercial duds. His least favorite ones were blockbusters. But it might as well apply to the polling biz. Trying to divine the intentions of a voting population of hundreds of thousands from a random sample of a few hundred may be impossible. The intent is to get a random, representative sample. But the kinds of people who respond to polls may not be representative of the larger milieu.
You mean you think they forgot to cheat in these races?
I think it’s much more likely that NONE of their so-called “polling” was accurate. Biden’s “massive” lead, or the Dem’s chances in these races.
The dead fish and the rest of his ticket was really not very popular.
So what’s the balance? Seems Nancy has about 5 vote majority
I think it’s closer to 10
Gotta believe that thar science!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.