11/03/20: REPs - 3,432,696, DEMs - 3,548,112, lead of 115,416 for DEMs, 39.1% to 37.8%
11/02/20: REPs - 3,404,088, DEMs - 3,512,211, lead of 108,123 for DEMs, 39.1% to 37.9%
11/01/20: REPs - 3,315,884, DEMs - 3,410,789, lead of 94,905 for DEMs, 39.2% to 38.1%
10/31/20: REPs - 3,160,735, DEMs - 3,276,786, lead of 116,051 for DEMs, 39.5% to 38.1%
10/30/20: REPs - 2,966,747, DEMs - 3,130,430, lead of 163,683 for DEMs, 40.0% to 37.9%
10/29/20: REPs - 2,784,101, DEMs - 2,991,015, lead of 206,914 for DEMs, 40.5% to 37.7%
10/28/20: REPs - 2,595,819, DEMs - 2,841,731, lead of 245,912 for DEMs, 41.1% to 37.5%
10/27/20: REPs - 2,383,218, DEMs - 2,685,500, lead of 302,282 for DEMs, 41.8% to 37.0%
10/26/20: REPs - 2,200,418, DEMs - 2,555,072, lead of 354,654 for DEMs, 42.5% to 36.6%
10/25/20: REPs - 2,076,621, DEMs - 2,440,470, lead of 363,849 for DEMs, 42.8% to 36.4%
10/24/20: REPs - 1,899,530, DEMs - 2,289,645, lead of 390,115 for DEMs, 43.3% to 36.0%
10/23/20: REPs - 1,682,849, DEMs - 2,110,366, lead of 427,517 for DEMs, 44.2% to 35.2%
10/22/20: REPs - 1,463,281, DEMs - 1,926,055, lead of 462,774 for DEMs, 45.2% to 34.4%
10/21/20: REPs - 1,221,835, DEMs - 1,708,632, lead of 486,797 for DEMs, 46.5% to 33.2%
10/20/20: REPs - 953,524, DEMs - 1,432,216, lead of 478,692 for DEMs, 47.7% to 31.8%
Our favorite map and spreadsheet:
bycomey’s Florida Map: https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
southpaw1’s Florida Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18U0IkZTXqGPhqWmK4QGtMO25BqR9RPvB5xPjgiCLQbs/edit#gid=0
I read somewhere that the Ds needed a 140k advantage on election day? If so we're looking ok.
Curious how the dems gained more than 20,000 over the past two days. Was that the result of the “souls to the polls” efforts by the black churches?
Do we have a guess at the Miami-Dade - Sarasota numbers we will have to factor into the joeisdone D-R number to feel more comfortable we are accurate?
What isn’t available yet is how many of those Dems voted for Trump. I would guess that it was at least 10-15%.
Remember Sarasota County, where Democrats were hoping to turn that county blue? And where a Tampa-St. Petersburg Times poll had Biden up 13 points in that county? Well...
Election Day voting:
Rs: 7.1K (60%)
Ds: 1.7K (15%)
All votes (early + election day): 44%(R) vs. 34%(D).
These returned ballots are marked D or R but until they’re opened/counted we don’t know who the actual vote is for? Is that right?
Hillsborough not updating on the site yet. Breakdown from Hillsborough SOE site:
R: 14,584
D: 8,468
O: 8,609
https://www.votehillsborough.org/2020-Unofficial-Turnout
Wow!
D-R gap (raw): -8922
R’s lead by 56,009. When should we feel good about these #’s? Or do I reserve my excitement until the # is larger?
Tried to buy more FL in my wife’s PredictIT account.
Got error message: “We have reached the maximum number of traders on this contract.”
Never saw that before.
Too bad, that was going to be more easy money.
It's been stated that 25% of those attending Trump's live rallies are reported as being Dems who support and are willing to vote for Trump.
GOP voting has already shot past that lead. We are on the way to a 2-3 percent win in FL
Hillsborough election day voting as of 2:08pm
R: 29,414
D: 18,739
O: 19,083
https://www.votehillsborough.org/2020-Unofficial-Turnout
After Florida, where should we look next?
R + 170,007