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L2 Data
@L2political
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32m
Pennsylvania Early Return Ballots: 2,339,663 23% R / 66% D / 9% NP
A: 18-29 12% / 30-39 12% / 40-49 11% / 50-64 26% / 65+ 39%
Asian 3% / White 69% / Hispanic 4% / AfAm 9%
F 57% // M 43%
1st Time Voting/New Regs: 14% “
Well, I wish one of our polling hotshots would tell me why this isn’t terrible news!
Black and Hispanic vote % down.
Dems requesting mail in ballots outnumbered Reps 3 to 1.
If not Asian, White, Hispanic, or AfAm, what could be the other 15% of voters?
That’s percentages of each group voting; says exactly NOTHING about who they voted for. Of those 66% Dems, how many #walkaway types among them cast votes for Trump?
No way to know, but basis numbers from his rallies, where more than 50% of attendees were Democrats... I’m willing to go out on a limb and say a third of those 66% went for Trump. So 23%R + 22%D voting R = 45%
Add a slew of the NonPartisan (NP) voters in there... Oh, heck, yeah the place is in-play!
Projecting the votes from this article against '16 results will Republicans win. There are many more Republican votes out there.
However a few other things exist. There are 130 colleges and universities in PA. Most students are not on campus. There is no college GOTV herding effort this year.
The black vote is low. However, a higher percentage of blacks are voting for Trump than in the past.
One last thing no one seems to write about in the media. Biden had no ground game in PA. They started to go door to door a week and a half a go. The GOP had over a million door knocks before Oct 1. This has led to a shift in voter registration in PA where Republicans are picking up voter and Rats are losing voters.
Trump's people expect to win Election Day votes by 1.1M in Pennsylvania, which would overcome that deficit. Plus, there are a lot of conservative Democrats in PA who will be voting for Trump.
L2 is junk data. Look at their data on FL and TX. It’s a joke. Best left ignored.