Red Republican - Blue Democrat
Posted on 11/02/2020 11:49:39 AM PST by montag813
In 2016, the polling averages showed Hillary Clinton with a three-point lead over Donald Trump. She ended up winning the popular vote by two points but losing the Electoral College.
This year, the polling averages give Joe Biden a much bigger advantage—7 percentage points. My polling for JustTheNews.com over the past month has also consistently shown the former Vice President with a 7 or 8 point advantage.The strength of Biden’s position is also evident in my Battleground State polling here at PoliticalIQ.In the three midwestern states that shocked the world and put the president over the top in 2016, my final polls show Biden leading by seven in Michigan, six in Wisconsin, and six in Pennsylvania. Four years ago, the polls showed much closer races in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
In Florida and North Carolina, a pair of must-win states for Trump, my latest 2020 numbers show Biden up by four points and one point respectively. Bluntly, the president cannot be re-elected without winning both of those states.
Possibly the most troubling numbers for the president in my polls come from two states where he’s ahead—Texas and Montana. He leads by just four points in each of these previously solid Republican states. On top of that, the candidates are tied in Iowa, a state Trump won by nearly ten points in 2016.
Obviously, surprises are possible. Many of these competitive states could end up in either the Republican or the Democratic column. That’s particularly true of North Carolina, Iowa, and Florida. So, we don’t know exactly what the Electoral College vote totals will look like. But the data clearly suggests that when all the votes are counted, Joe Biden will be the president-elect.
These bull sh*t polls are not capturing parts of electorate!
Cleveland media market reaches into Ohio and Michigan. I expect that is the reason.
My opinion is that Biden is a much more comfortable position that Trump is. Biden has way more margin for error, which is why he hasn’t shown the flag until the past few days.
PoliticalIQ has a left/center bent. I wonder about Scott and if he’s instrumental in this group. Or how current ? Why did he sell his Rasmussen group ?....too difficult and expensive to poll properly with the advent of cell phones over landlines.
Is Kansas going blue ? Iowa close ?
Few of his numbers match what we’re seeing these last few days.
I’m prepared for a final verdict to take a couple of days, but doubt it will take that long. I suspect we’ll know late tomorrow night...perhaps earlier.
Hear that dems! No need to vote. Biden already has it in the bag. Stay home and stay warm/safe. No need to risk getting a cold by being around other people. Just stay home.
If these guys screw it up a second time, no one will ever listen to the again. Which is ok.
Red Republican - Blue Democrat
Dude - you just got here yourself...
I think we are going to have such an overwhelming in person turnout tomorrow, that a part of me is concerned that the polling places will not be able to handle the volume.
Get an early start tomorrow folks. We’re going to see unprecedented turnout.
polls... were right in 2018The polls didn't adjust to 2018 from before, the voting public did. They're keeping the same turnout and percentage affiliation models now, but the public has, once again, changed.
“Dude - you just got here yourself...”
Billyboy15 has been here since 2013 but I have been here just a few yrs less than you.
93 million have already voted, so I don’t know why the polling places would be worse than 2016. Maybe Democrats voting again?
Don’t worry about the surveys. They were very wrong last time and obviously manipulated.
Vote! Tell your neighbors that you’ll be voting for freedom and the economy. Vote! Let’s go!
“The polls didn’t adjust to 2018 from before, the voting public did. They’re keeping the same turnout and percentage affiliation models now, but the public has, once again, changed.”
I suspect there are a lot of voters who only show up to vote for Trump. Trump wasn’t on the ballot in 2018. Too bad because then we would have kept the house.
By the way, at least two other surveys have President Trump up by one point in Pennsylvania.
Most GOP candidates in 2018 were poor.
“My opinion is that Biden is a much more comfortable position that Trump is. Biden has way more margin for error, which is why he hasn’t shown the flag until the past few days.”
I hear that a lot from the media but I just don’t see it. Biden has to defend MI, PA ,WI
Trump has to defend AZ, FL, NC
Biden could pick off either AZ and NC and still lose.
If Trump wins any one of either MI, PA ,WI he wins.
This must be the “Other Rasmussen”... :-)
“PoliticalIQ has a left/center bent.”
I sure hope so. I did notice they had an article from NPR on their website. All the news today on FR has been positive and then I read these polls from Scott Rasmussen. Yuck! I used to have a lot of respect for Scott when Bush was running for President. Hope his sauce was really off this election.
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