11/02/20: REPs - 3,404,088, DEMs - 3,512,211, lead of 108,123 for DEMs, 39.1% to 37.9%
11/01/20: REPs - 3,315,884, DEMs - 3,410,789, lead of 94,905 for DEMs, 39.2% to 38.1%
10/31/20: REPs - 3,160,735, DEMs - 3,276,786, lead of 116,051 for DEMs, 39.5% to 38.1%
10/30/20: REPs - 2,966,747, DEMs - 3,130,430, lead of 163,683 for DEMs, 40.0% to 37.9%
10/29/20: REPs - 2,784,101, DEMs - 2,991,015, lead of 206,914 for DEMs, 40.5% to 37.7%
10/28/20: REPs - 2,595,819, DEMs - 2,841,731, lead of 245,912 for DEMs, 41.1% to 37.5%
10/27/20: REPs - 2,383,218, DEMs - 2,685,500, lead of 302,282 for DEMs, 41.8% to 37.0%
10/26/20: REPs - 2,200,418, DEMs - 2,555,072, lead of 354,654 for DEMs, 42.5% to 36.6%
10/25/20: REPs - 2,076,621, DEMs - 2,440,470, lead of 363,849 for DEMs, 42.8% to 36.4%
10/24/20: REPs - 1,899,530, DEMs - 2,289,645, lead of 390,115 for DEMs, 43.3% to 36.0%
10/23/20: REPs - 1,682,849, DEMs - 2,110,366, lead of 427,517 for DEMs, 44.2% to 35.2%
10/22/20: REPs - 1,463,281, DEMs - 1,926,055, lead of 462,774 for DEMs, 45.2% to 34.4%
10/21/20: REPs - 1,221,835, DEMs - 1,708,632, lead of 486,797 for DEMs, 46.5% to 33.2%
10/20/20: REPs - 953,524, DEMs - 1,432,216, lead of 478,692 for DEMs, 47.7% to 31.8%
Our favorite map and spreadsheet:
bycomey’s Florida Map: https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
southpaw1’s Florida Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18U0IkZTXqGPhqWmK4QGtMO25BqR9RPvB5xPjgiCLQbs/edit#gid=0
So, in a couple of weeks, based on these threads, it’s gone from a comfortable Trump victory to a nail-biter and possibly one affected by voter fraud. Swell.
Unfortunately results could be within recount territory. I’m not ready for a 2000 repeat.
Why aren’t you counting walk in Dems votes?Maybe you did but I missed it.Thanks.
Just to see if I have this right - I think I’ve read on a prior thread that we can expect 10M to 11M total votes. If we land at 7M early votes that leaves 3-4M Election Day votes.
Assuming the early votes are straight party line and the unaffiliated voters split down the middle, then an Election Day turnout of 3M voters, split 55 Rep / 45 Dem should be more than enough. That would give the GOP a 300k Election Day lead and a 200K overall win, which is 2%.
Is that a fair read on the situation? If so, that seems like a number the GOP should easily be able to deliver?
Sorry I realize now my prior post omitted early unaffiliated voters, so Election Day turnout will be less. How many UFA have voted so far?
So democrats gained about 12,000 since yesterday, not surprising as a last minute surge from people who waiting to the last minute to mail in their ballots are now hitting. We're still in pretty good shape at 108k. I think the general consensus was democrats needed to be ahead by over 200k going into election day to stand a chance of winning (assuming everything else stays the same as 2016 of in the party vote breakdown, IE not a lot of democrats voting Trump or Republicans voting Biden).
Me and my 3 sons are voting tomorrow in Palm Beach County for Trump. My 2 sisters and mother mailed in their Trump for president votes last week. My holdout wife knows that she better vote Trump tomorrow or her monthly budget will be negatively impacted.
I am in the heart of democrat hanging chad country and this area is at least 50/50 for Trump among the working crowd. Much of the many retirees in the senior communities already voted by mail because of Covid fears. In sum, the democrats have seriously cannibalized their base. Serious advantage Trump. Final call - Trump 52.3, Biden 46.7, miscellaneous 1%. Yes, it will be a substantial victory!!
Ping
Off the back of my envelope:
11,300,00 total votes (guessing 80% of registrations)
9,000,000 early votes (guessing election day total)
2,300,000 to go on election day
7 to 5 Republican IPEV ratio advantage
assuming 7 to 5 election day advantage.
380,000 election day Republican advantage.
110,000 guessing final early voting Democrat advantage.
270,000 Republican win
I kind of expect better numbers due to Democrat crossovers and NPA favoring Trump
Key here to size of victory will be the number of crossovers from DEMS to Trump.
If Trump has significantly increased his share of Hispanics and Blacks as reported, he will pull much of that support out of the DEM column. I doubt very much that many of these new Trump supporters, who have historically been registered DEM, are bothering to change their registration. More likely, they vote Trump this time and see what happens in 2024.
These are not converts to the Republican party - they are simply supporting Trump. The Republicans will have to work harder to keep them long term.
It looks to me, the dems are underperforming significantly.
11.0 million votes
pred.hare of voters in 2020/ % share of voters in 2016
D: 36.4%/ 38.5%
R: 39.1%/ 39.2%
Trump wins by 170k
Thanks so much for these updates. This Florida reporting has become one of my must watch threads!
Questions for you.
Over the last year in Florida, can you tell me what has happened with new voter registration, changes in voter registration?
I believe you said that anything short of 81% mail in vote percentage for Dems would be short, is that correct.
Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!
It’s fun to slice and dice these numbers, but without knowing how many crossovers there are, it’s hard to say where we stand.
That said, based on the numbers coming into today, assuming Trump and Biden are splitting all NPV 50-50, if Trump is getting only 3% more party crossovers than Biden (e.g., if Trump is getting 10% of Dems and Biden getting 7% of GOP, or if Trump is getting 8% of Dems and Biden is getting 5% of GOP), Trump is ALREADY AHEAD (unless crossovers are tiny - below 5%).
I see there’s also a Minimum Wage Increase on the ballot in Florida
Could this cause a unfavorable shift in independents?
DRUDGE will post fake Florida exit polls saying Biden leading at 5pm Eastern Time to depress Panhandle turnout after work! Ignore the Drudge exit polls tomorrow! Don’t fall for it!