Posted on 11/02/2020 5:50:51 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 663,685
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 555,562
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 108,123
“Everyone please chime in with a Florida prediction. I’ll go first.”
Trump 51
Biden 49
10:08
last 3 updates
IPEV R +34 - Mail in D + 613 net D+579
R +66 - 528 = D + 462
R+ 60 - (-126) R +186
Dems +285 average per update
Arrive by ED? Or postmarked?
No your number is the exact one using the decimal points. My number was incorrect (I used whole numbers).
Please calculate with these percentages and I’ll calculate again also.
—
I have to go dark the next few hours
be back later this afternoon
Arrive.
arrive by 7 pm or no soup for you. FL is strict.
Florida not only has a day but a time deadline.
That rate adds 7K to their lead by end of today
Oh, ok.
60k it is.
60k when you arrive back in the Light.
“Perhaps a factor in the relative tightening in PA v. other states: Pennsylvania voters supported fracking, 52-27, in the Times/Siena poll”
byecomey: “Sometime today, I will be changing over the map to the Election Day view rather than early voting. The totals box will be reflecting Election Day comparisons rather than early voting.”
Key here to size of victory will be the number of crossovers from DEMS to Trump.
If Trump has significantly increased his share of Hispanics and Blacks as reported, he will pull much of that support out of the DEM column. I doubt very much that many of these new Trump supporters, who have historically been registered DEM, are bothering to change their registration. More likely, they vote Trump this time and see what happens in 2024.
These are not converts to the Republican party - they are simply supporting Trump. The Republicans will have to work harder to keep them long term.
Trafalgar polling has Potus ahead in PA, MI and NC today. Trafalgar was (I believe) the only pollster in 2016 who showed Trump winning in MI, and of course he did. They manage to account for some of the “shy Trump” vote in their polling. Nate Silver attacks Trafalgar all the time for their results.
Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar said on Fox that they are finding late deciders breaking for Trump because of the “fear of lockdowns”, like those announced in the UK and threatened by Biden.
Thanks, I hope those are worst case numbers.
It looks to me, the dems are underperforming significantly.
11.0 million votes
pred.hare of voters in 2020/ % share of voters in 2016
D: 36.4%/ 38.5%
R: 39.1%/ 39.2%
Trump wins by 170k
AZ: D lead down to 9k
https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns
Rs up by 21k in Maricopa County.
Thanks so much for these updates. This Florida reporting has become one of my must watch threads!
Questions for you.
Over the last year in Florida, can you tell me what has happened with new voter registration, changes in voter registration?
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