byecomey: “Sometime today, I will be changing over the map to the Election Day view rather than early voting. The totals box will be reflecting Election Day comparisons rather than early voting.”
Trafalgar polling has Potus ahead in PA, MI and NC today. Trafalgar was (I believe) the only pollster in 2016 who showed Trump winning in MI, and of course he did. They manage to account for some of the “shy Trump” vote in their polling. Nate Silver attacks Trafalgar all the time for their results.
Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar said on Fox that they are finding late deciders breaking for Trump because of the “fear of lockdowns”, like those announced in the UK and threatened by Biden.
AZ: D lead down to 9k
https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns
Rs up by 21k in Maricopa County.