Florida Early Vote update, 11/02/2020

ElectionCZAR ^ | 11/02/2020 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 663,685

In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 555,562

Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 108,123

[SpeedyInTexas]

Old McDonald says Trump takes NC.

[Owen]

Sensitivity Analysis FL.

2020 14M registered voters, 2016’s turnout was 75%.

9M have voted already.

That would leave 1.5M to vote tomorrow — since 75% of 14M is 10.5M.

116,000 pre-ED lead is 7.7% of the remaining 1.5M to vote ED — that’s the % lead that must be overcome, if overall turnout is 75%.

VBM can be expected to elevate overall turnout for both sides. 4% is a reasonable expectation. So of the 14M registered voters, 79% might turnout. This is 11 million voters. 9M already voted so 2 million yet to appear.

116K is 5.8% of the remaining 2M to be made up.

You can add or subtract whatever % lean you expect from Indies or cross voting to that 5.8% number. That’s the lead to be made up tomorrow.

2M is 14% of 14M. So it would be like on election night you see a 5.8% lead with 86% already in. The Repub / Dem ratio of that final 2M will need to be 56/44 to win.

[wareagle7295]

2M is 14% of 14M. So it would be like on election night you see a 5.8% lead with 86% already in. The Repub / Dem ratio of that final 2M will need to be 56/44 to win.

There was a CBS/YouGov poll released this weekend, that asked if you are voting on election day who are you voting for and the results were 70/30 Trump.

[Owen]

That last sentence is not entirely pure, but the impression will be that. The lead would actually read 1.3%, but for our interests of the final 2M votes, it’s 5.8%.

[dallavise]

With expanded African American and Latino/Hispanic Support, as well as an overblown amount of suburbanites/old people switching to D, as well as an unprecedented level of rural, NC white votes:

Trump by 3.2%

[ChennaiBond]

What was the lead going into 2016 election cycle? This looks very good from where they started couple of weeks back right?

[Ravi]

Saw that

[southpaw1]

Here are some counties to look for tomorrow:

Brevard
Duval
Clay
St Johns
Citrus
Collier
Lee
Broward

These are counties that actually increased their ED votes from 2016 -> 2018. Notice all are red counties with the exception of Broward.

[plushaye]

This lady came across a Trump rally on the side of the road in snowy... Massachusetts?

The song playing fits completely.

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1322962838449737729

[dfwgator]

I still think the number of Ds voting for Trump will wind up shocking everyone when it’s over.

[SpeedyInTexas]

“What was the lead going into 2016 election cycle? This looks very good from where they started couple of weeks back right?”

2016 Ds lead by 96k.

This year lead will be slightly larger, but on a percentage basis smaller. Percentage D lead was 1.5% in 2016. This morning D lead was 1.2%. Ds will net some votes today with mail ballots. Maybe 1.3% tomorrow, maybe still 1.2%.

[SpeedyInTexas]

I’m going to be glued to JoeIsDone tomorrow.

To see if Trump wins Florida.

Also to increase/decrease bets on Florida.

[SpeedyInTexas]

I wish we could see Miami in real time.

That Cuban vote...

[Ravi]

JoeisDone will be moving markets tomorrow.

[Trump Girl Kit Cat]

I am with you on this Trump 51% maybe even higher!!!

[BagCamAddict]

I’m late to this party....

Does anyone have a guestimate of how many Election Day Republican votes we are cannibalizing due to COVID ?

i.e., how many Repubs, who would normally vote on Election Day, chose to vote early or by mail, due to COVID ?

I’m sure a portion of Republicans believed the hype and chose to vote early due to personal health concerns, or concerns about long waiting lines on ED, etc.

Just wondering if anyone has any idea what the percentage is? And therefore, how many fewer Repubs we have waiting in the wings to vote on ED ?

(Don’t yell at me if it’s been discussed 1000 times... I’m at work and can’t Freep all day. I wish! And no, I’m not hand-wringing. I KNOW Trump is going to win!!!! I just enjoy statistics & playing with the numbers. Thanks!!)

[FreedBird]

Are you considering the Third Party vote of 1-2 percent?

[CarolinaReaganFan]

RE: Florida

Have you seen a thread for predicting pop vote and electoral results?

[Political Junkie Too]

Let's see...

Some gross numbers...

Democrats have 5,303,254 registered voters.

• Assume 80% turnout. That means 4,242,603 votes.
• Assume African-American population of 16.9%, or 717,000 voters.
• Assume that President Trump gets 15% of these voters, or 107,550 votes. This nets to 4,135,053 votes.
• Hispanic population is 26.4%, or 1,091,654 votes. Assume President Trump gets 40% of this, or 436,662.
• Democrat net vote is now 3,698,392.

Republicans have 5,169,012 registered voters.

• Assume 85% turnout, That means 4,393,660 votes.
• Add the crossover African-American vote of 107,550. That nets to 4,501210 votes.
• Add the cross-over Hispanic vote of 436,662. That nets to 4,937,872 votes.
• Assume white crossover votes cancel each other.

The above translates to a result of Trump 57.2 Biden 42.8.

-PJ

[SpeedyInTexas]

I haven’t.