Let's see...
Some gross numbers...
Democrats have 5,303,254 registered voters.
- Assume 80% turnout. That means 4,242,603 votes.
- Assume African-American population of 16.9%, or 717,000 voters.
- Assume that President Trump gets 15% of these voters, or 107,550 votes. This nets to 4,135,053 votes.
- Hispanic population is 26.4%, or 1,091,654 votes. Assume President Trump gets 40% of this, or 436,662.
- Democrat net vote is now 3,698,392.
Republicans have 5,169,012 registered voters.
- Assume 85% turnout, That means 4,393,660 votes.
- Add the crossover African-American vote of 107,550. That nets to 4,501210 votes.
- Add the cross-over Hispanic vote of 436,662. That nets to 4,937,872 votes.
- Assume white crossover votes cancel each other.
The above translates to a result of Trump 57.2 Biden 42.8.
-PJ
Does your analysis double dip by counting African Americans explicitly as 717,000 from the Dem share and then implicitly as part of the Rs share (4,393,660 votes)?
Same with hispanics?