[Owen]

Sensitivity Analysis FL.

2020 14M registered voters, 2016’s turnout was 75%.

9M have voted already.

That would leave 1.5M to vote tomorrow — since 75% of 14M is 10.5M.

116,000 pre-ED lead is 7.7% of the remaining 1.5M to vote ED — that’s the % lead that must be overcome, if overall turnout is 75%.

VBM can be expected to elevate overall turnout for both sides. 4% is a reasonable expectation. So of the 14M registered voters, 79% might turnout. This is 11 million voters. 9M already voted so 2 million yet to appear.

116K is 5.8% of the remaining 2M to be made up.

You can add or subtract whatever % lean you expect from Indies or cross voting to that 5.8% number. That’s the lead to be made up tomorrow.

2M is 14% of 14M. So it would be like on election night you see a 5.8% lead with 86% already in. The Repub / Dem ratio of that final 2M will need to be 56/44 to win.

[wareagle7295]

2M is 14% of 14M. So it would be like on election night you see a 5.8% lead with 86% already in. The Repub / Dem ratio of that final 2M will need to be 56/44 to win.

There was a CBS/YouGov poll released this weekend, that asked if you are voting on election day who are you voting for and the results were 70/30 Trump.

[Owen]

That last sentence is not entirely pure, but the impression will be that. The lead would actually read 1.3%, but for our interests of the final 2M votes, it’s 5.8%.

[Burma Jones]

I’m not sure about your math. If Trump is down 116,000 going into tomorrow, and there are 2MM votes left, I think he only needs to win those 53-47%.

2MM x .53 = 1,060,000 Trump
2MM x .47 = 940,000 Biden

That would give Trump ED margin of 120,000, overcoming the EV deficit of 116,000.

Big difference between needing 53% and needing 56%.