Florida Early Vote update, 11/01/2020

ElectionCZAR ^ | 11/01/2020 | self

[plushaye]

Big party. Good sign. NYT and Dems don’t want them to have any victory event.

I hope they have this Miami Latino band playing at the event. Their song in the ad version is so catchy I find myself humming it around the house.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTiNRYHlIkI

“I love my freedom, I will vote Donald Trump”, they sing.
- a strong and effective message to those escaping cuban and venezualan socialism

[SpeedyInTexas]

“SUPERSPREADER —
@realDonaldTrump plans to cram as many as 400 people in an indoor Election Night party at the White House East Room Tuesday, flouting all health recommendations against such events.”

Glad there is an Election Night party. It would have sent a bad signal if Trump was skipping it.

I was in AZ election night 2008. A friend and I were prepared to go to the Biltmore if McCain was going to win.

We didn’t go.

[Tobias Grimsley]

Now that EV is wrapping up and we are pretty sure where we are in Florida and North Carolina compared to 2016, I think one of the best and least subjective data points that point to Trump doing better on Election Day than 2016 are the net gains in voter registrations in FL, NC and PA.

LS, you’ve been updating us on this since 2016.

I believe the net gains are
- +200k in FL
- +230k in NC
- +200k in PA

This should carry the day and put it beyond the reach of any election issues.

As always, great work by everyone!

[TontoKowalski]

I love the irony.

Dems pushed mail-in voting and spread Coronafear because they thought it would benefit them hugely... and, honestly, so did I.

Now their mail-in campaign hasn't given them the margin they expected, and they've actively disincentivized their base from voting on election day.

[KC_Conspirator]

Wasserman is an old Larry Sabato clown going back to 2006. He now works for the Cook political report. His career could be described as a lifelong dem party cheerleader that has been wrong many times. He is predicting that the dems will gain up to 14 seats in the house alone this election, which is absurd.

[plushaye]

Do these numbers make sense to you number crunchers? Dems have to get their low-propensity voters to the polls, this Dem analyst says. Good luck with those 0-of-4 or 1-of-4 voters. These 0-4/1-4 are showing up at Trump rallies so I wonder who they might be voting for?!

https://twitter.com/PeterSchorschFL/status/1322899408208470016

“So for @JoeBiden to win Florida, @FlaDems have to turn out their low-propensity voters. They currently have about a 90K cast-ballot advantage vs. GOP. They need to run that up today with Souls to the Polls.”

Here are more key numbers:

@FloridaGOP
still has 198,791 more 4-of-4 voters vs. @FlaDems
.

Republicans also have 44,220 more 3-of-4s and 27,435 more new voters.

Democrats have 4,783 more 2-of-4 voters, 90,722 more 1-of-4 and 203,516 more 0-of-4s.

[SpeedyInTexas]

“National GE, Among those who plan to cast their ballot on #ElectionDay:

Trump 69% (+42)
Biden 27%

@YouGovAmerica/@CBSNewsPoll, LV, 10/26-30”

VA Day coming soon.

[springwater13]

Trump needs better turnout in Orange, Seminole, Duval, and St. Johns. I am concerned all his gains in Miami-Dade will be wiped out in the Orlando/Jacksonville suburbs. It seems whether because of changing demographics or suburban uneasiness there is some resistance in Orlando and Jacksonville suburbs. Seminole County and St. Johns County are Trump’s 2 worst counties in the entire state. Even in in-person early voting, Trump is barely getting a 2-3% advantage while other Dem Strongholds have Trump at least a 10% advantage.

That has me concerned. There’s also general under performance in senior heavy southwest florida counties like Collier, Lee, Sarasota, Manatee. All 2-4% below 2016 although unlike Seminole, St.Johns, Republicans are doing gangbusters in IPEV with leads up to 20% or more. Sarasota is very impressive IPEV.

Also, a lot of the outperformance in rurals is yellow dog democrats changing their registration to Republican to vote in primaries. Trump was winning these counties anyway 70-30. Maybe there is room to boost them to 80-20 but at some point the rurals are maxed out.

I still think wins but turnout Tuesday is everything. It could still go the wrong way in Florida if Republicans don’t turnout. Hopefully, the Democrat narrative that suburban women and seniors moving to Biden is wrong. The early voting data does concern me a little.

[I still care]

I went out to vote early, but my mom and I are elderly and didn’t want to do the long line stuff. The younger members of my family are all waiting for election day and there are quite a few of them.

Broken glass for Trump.

[mn-bush-man]

For the lazy and uneducated like me, what is an 0/4, 1/4, 2/4 etc? Thanks - I will hang up and listen.

[Owen]

how many times in the last 4 elections that person voted

[plushaye]

No problem. The lingo can be obscure.

0-for-4 means didn’t vote in last 4 elections

1-for-4 means voted once in last 4 elections

GOP has a lot of 4-for-4, “supervoters”, always vote

The Dem analyst is saying Dems have ran out of frequent voters in FL, need to get voters who rarely vote, to vote Biden.

[springwater13]

It has to do with high propensity voters. Every modeler does it a little differently but generally a 4/4 is someone in the top 25% of voters and votes every election. 0/4 is an infrequent or rare voter. Scores in the middle are middle of the road voters that vote sometimes and not other times.

[byecomey]

Just pushed in an update. Will still be mostly offline for a while.

[janetjanet998]

after missing several the 12:48 update

change since 11:08 update

IPEV R + 484
Mail D 979

net D+ 495

so far today

IPEV R +2346
mail D+ 5683

net D+ 3337

overall D lead +95447

[springwater13]

Thanks for all your work on the model! It’s been awesome.

Do you have plans for live tracking the election day vote?

[freddy005]

See my #48 above:

Iowa poll yesterday (A+ rated according to Nate Silver) shows IA indys breaking to Trump. It’s lifting R’s in House races.

Richard Baris of Big Data polling finds - Independents now trending towards Trump in AZ/PA/FL/OH.
____________________________________________________________

If “Indys” are breaking for Trump in one or more key battleground states then I don’t see how it doesn’t do so nationwide! If Trump is very competitive in PA and is winning handily in OH then MI and WI must be breaking his way. Same goes for FL and AZ!

[byecomey]

Yes. Top priority right now. Crunching the 2016 FL history rolls tonight.

[SpeedyInTexas]

I’ll take those numbers.

[wareagle7295]

“National GE, Among those who plan to cast their ballot on #ElectionDay: Trump 69% (+42) Biden 27% @YouGovAmerica/@CBSNewsPoll, LV, 10/26-30” VA Day coming soon.

I don't trust any polls, but that is insane if it even approaches that number. That would equal a landslide with out a doubt.